TNG Matchups: State Championship
Statistical preview of the D1 & D2 state final matchups, including offense vs. defense advantages, and model picks
It all comes down to this. Who has the matchup advantages? The graphics below read left-to-right and games are in the order that they appear on the bracket. For the matchup advantage columns, if the team on the left (Team) is favored, it’ll be green. If the team on the right (Opponent) is favored, it’ll be red. Also, the shading of the colors matter, too. The darker the shading, the heavier the matchup advantage. The team with the advantage is listed below the numbers, too.
NOTE: The model (or ELO WP%) is on a heater having correctly predicted every game in the last two rounds. I can see several candidates this week with a good chance to break that streak.
Off vs. Def = Team Offensive Grade - Opponent Defensive Grade
Def vs. Off = Team Defensive Grade - Opponent Offensive Grade
DOM = Team Dominance Grade - Opponent Dominance Grade
ELO WP% = Team expected win percentage according to the ELO model