2025 TNG Class 6A District Strength Ratings & Top District Races to Watch
A look at the top-to-bottom average rating of each district and highlighting the most impactful and interesting playoff races
In this post we’ll take a look at the best districts in the state based on top-to-bottom strength and then we’ll look at the most important district races to watch.
The District Strength ratings presented here are derived by simply taking the average starting Elo rating of all of the teams within each district. Smaller districts with very highly rated teams at the top can tend to skew these a little bit, but in general this should give a pretty good picture of how each district rates relative to their peers.
Top District Races to Watch
#1. 15-6A: Five Teams Ranked Between #27 and #35 in the State
Even though it’s written in the title to this section, it bears repeating: There are five teams in this district ranked between #27 and #35 in the state! That means that Magnolia, checking in at #35 in the state, is currently projected to miss the playoffs. Not only are the teams ranked that highly, but they are also so close in rating that the maximum projected margins between any matchup between the top 5 would be less than 4pts. Buckle up.
Each week of the district slate will feature blockbuster matchups, and the four teams that survive the running of this gauntlet will be well-prepared for anything they’d face in the playoffs. Even Klein Oak, projected 6th, and Tomball Memorial, projected 7th, are rated inside the State Top 100 and are playoff-quality squads in just about any other district.
#2. 11-6A: Still the District of Doom
11-6A still rates as our #1 top-to-bottom district based on the average Elos of all of the teams, which is why it is still indeed the District of Doom. This year, three teams land in the State Top 20 and an incredible 7(!) land inside the State Top 100. The playoff positions have less uncertainty than 15-6A above, but the race for fourth place is going to be a wild one.
#3. 10-6A: A Good Squad Will Go Home Early
10-6A may have been a surprise to have surpassed 23-6A into second place in our district strength ratings above, but part of that is due to there only being seven teams and the fact that the last place projected team here, Royse City, still carries a pretty decent Elo rating. Regardless, the story here is that 10-6A features 5 teams inside the State Top 50, which is remarkable. That also means that a very good squad is going to miss the postseason. Behind Longview, a reasonable argument can be made for any arrangement of Forney, Heath, North Forney, and Rockwall. We view all of those as really solid teams and it’s a shame that one of them won’t play an 11th game.
#4. 5-6A: Deep and Well-Balanced
5-6A features two teams at the top in Lewisville and Guyer that could possibly go to the regional finals in their respective brackets, and the next 4 teams below them all rate inside the State Top 100. Like 10-6A, this one also feature 5 teams inside the Top 50, meaning that someone is going home way too early.
#5. 23-6A: Still the BEastside
This district is still box office quality, with the usual three teams inside the State Top 13 and a fourth in CE King checking in at #30. This year, Kingwood and Humble don’t appear as strong as they looked coming into last season and North Shore’s rating is down from their norm given the amount of reloading they have to do on both sides of the ball, but for sheer top-end quality this district can’t be beaten.
Other Districts to Watch:
26-6A: Westlake Returns to D2…Most Likely
It appears less likely that Austin High would upset Bowie again this year, so while this one bears watching for the possibility that Westlake could go D1, the Chaps seem fairly certain to head to D2 this year, setting up a potential regional final with Vandegrift. The impact of Westlake heading to D2 would also mean that Lake Travis’ path in D1 would become notably easier. Another reason to watch this district is that Westlake and Lake Travis appear much closer to each other, in terms of their outlooks, than they have been since probably 2019.
19-6A: Katy to D2 Possible, but Unlikely
Katy and Jordan seem pretty sure bets at the top of the district again, but with Mayde Creek improving and Tompkins, Cinco, and Paetow seemingly moving closer together, any arrangement of spots 3 through 6 in the district seems possible. Only one configuration though would send Katy to D2, assuming just two spots are up for grabs, and that would be Tompkins missing the playoffs with Paetow and Cinco getting in. It is possible, but is just one of many possible playoff combos, and we’d rate that one as one of the lower likelihood outcomes.
6-6A: Prosper Likely Headed to D2?
Like 19-6A, this one is a case of one of the top two potentially being impacted by the chaos below them. In this case Prosper would end up in D2 if either East or Plano makes the playoffs. This we consider to be the “most likely” case, but because Rock Hill and Boyd aren’t rated far behind the big Plano schools, there’s a near equal chance that Prosper stays in D1. This one could bear watching to the very end.
29-6A: San Marcos? Which Bracket Will Steele Be In?
The San Marcos wildcard has us perplexed. Sure, the kids who stayed three years to finally get eligibility this year could make a huge impact and they could run the district. It could happen. It could also be that they don’t have as drastic an impact and they miss the playoffs. Football is the ultimate team game, but that number of dudes can certainly make a difference; how much is the question. Outside of the Rattlers, there’s plenty of other uncertainty here, leaving Steele’s playoff destination a huge question mark.
16-6A: Impressive and Surprising Depth
Six teams inside the State Top 100…hello?! Welcome to the best district you probably weren’t aware of. Bridgeland and Cy Ranch should be practically household names at this point and Cy Woods had some deep runs around the early 2010’s, but the emergence of Cy Springs and now Cy Lakes and Waller has taken this area to another level. There are going to be at least two really good teams here not making the postseason.