2025 TNG Class 6A Region 3 Preview
Regional Top 20 plus projections and commentary on each district race
In this post, we’ll first take a look at the Top 20 teams in Region 3 and then we’ll dive into each district individually. We’ll look at the projected final standings in each district, complete with overall team ratings (OVR), offensive ratings (OFF), defensive ratings (DEF), state and regional rankings, and playoff projections/odds along with brief commentary on each district’s race.
17-6A Projection
Cy Falls’ return to Region 3 was a successful one in which they posted their best season since 2019, winning the district in dominating fashion. Falls is favored to repeat as champions with the likes of QB Brandon Derbigny, RB Gabriel Wilson, and elite defensive linemen Kaden McCarty and James Harris returning. Once again, Cy-Fair promises to be the main challenger for Falls. The Bobcats lost a 45-37 thriller against Falls last year and they return a similar amount of experience, but must replace stalwart DL Landon Rink.
Stratford and Memorial appear to be safe bets to fill out the last two playoff spots. The Spartans have to replace QB Aaron DeLeon, but return more experience overall than Memorial who are beginning a new era under Coach Brooks Haack. Coach Haack’s offensive expertise and experience at high level programs combined with Memorial’s typically stout defense could prove to be a winning formula.
18-6A Projection
Lamar has won 14 of the last 15 district titles, so it’s no surprise to see them projected first yet again. The Texans did come a good way back to the pack last year, but they return enough experience and talent that the should be able to hold off Heights, their toughest district opponent. In another year, this might be a golden opportunity for Heights, but they lost 17 of the 20 All-District performers to graduation. Even still, the Bulldogs are projected a full 432 Elo points ahead of the next closest contender in Bellaire.
The Cardinals and the Westside Wolves, even being projected that far behind Heights are still even farther ahead of anyone chasing them for a playoff spot, so this district appears pretty straightforward in terms of the playoff participants.
19-6A Projection
The Katy Tigers once again dominated 19-6A, outscoring district foes by an average score of 39.8-4.9 and they could be substantially better on both sides of the ball this year, especially with 7 of 10 All-District performers back on the defense alone. Jordan, despite losing some elite playmakers, is still going to be extremely talented at the skill positions and has quickly and firmly established themselves at the very top-end of the district all the way down through the junior high ranks.
The real intrigue in this district now lies in the next tier of teams, which has become increasingly crowded and less clear. Less than a TD, in terms of our preseason Elo rating equivalent, separates Tompkins at #3 and Mayde Creek at #6. The Falcons return outstanding RB Ethan Meadows and Ath Carter Young, but with the other teams improving rapidly, Tompkins will need to arrest their recent decline on the defensive side of the ball to keep pace. Cinco returns the most proven experience out of any of the teams in this group, but they too have some question marks on defense. Two teams that will not have defensive worries are Paetow and Mayde Creek. If either of those squads can find a little bit more on offense, they might find themselves back in the postseason.
Keep in mind that if both Cinco and Paetow make the playoffs, Katy would be pushed to the Division 2 bracket.
20-6A Projection
Fulshear annihilated the district in their first 6A season, but will have to make a run at a repeat without their program architect as Coach Codutti moved on to Klein. Coach Stephen Hill took the reins, fresh off a State Title as Co-OC at nearby Richmond Randle so you’d expect the Charger offense to remain potent. Strake is an easy pick to be Fulshear’s top challenger as they return record-setting RB John Hebert who went for 3,542 yards last year.
Elsik has made steady improvements each of the last few years and they return a very talented roster led by QB Kaden Mendenhall and 8 other returning All-District selections. The Rams are likely to take another step forward this year. Foster and George Ranch should be firmly in the playoff mix as well, with Foster getting the slight nod due to their defense.
21-6A Projection
Under Coach LaFavers, Ridge Point has won the district in each of his 5 years at the helm. Despite losing irreplaceable QB Austin Carlisle to UH, the Panthers boast one of the state’s most talented squads and are clear favorites atop 21-6A. In fact, Ridge Point could be a darkhorse to make a deep run in the deep Region 3, Division 1 bracket. Hightower, unsurprisingly, is Ridge Point’s top challenger, but the Canes return just 5 of their 20 All-District selections from ‘24.
Behind the very clear top two, Travis, Elkins, and Austin are set to once again duke it out for the final playoff spots. Elkins made a massive leap last year but suffered heavier personnel losses than Travis and Austin. The Bulldogs recent steady improvement, if continued, could see them into the postseason for the first time since 2013.
22-6A Projection
Shadow Creek won district last year with a 41-28 win over Pearland, but Coach Gotte’s Oilers look poised to make a run at an outright district title, which would be just their third as a program since 2010. Pearland returns high-impact starters at every level of their defense in a unit that projects as a Top 10 defense in the state. Shadow Creek can never be counted out of course, and they return 11 All-District performers and have some incredibly talented young players coming up.
Manvel projects as the third best team in the district, but returns just 5 of 17 All-District performers. Unlike fellow challengers Dawson and Dobie, however, Manvel does return their All-District QB in Cam Renfro. Dawson returns slightly more experience overall compared to Dobie, but both have plenty of rebuilding to do to stay in contention for the postseason.
23-6A Projection
Kingwood gutted out a great win over CE King last year to make a surprise entry into the playoffs in this incredibly difficult district. The Mustangs suffered heavy graduation losses, however, and will be hard-pressed to repeat their ‘24 success. The Mustangs of North Shore also have a great deal of rebuilding to do, but it will continue to be their district until someone proves otherwise. QB Kaleb Maryland will take the full-time job at QB, providing a proven and reliable centerpiece for new OC Ben Barkema to build around.
With North Shore having their most extensive rebuild in some time, it could be Summer Creek’s turn to challenge them for the top spot in the district. The Bulldogs, who narrowly missed out on a return trip to the Division 2 State Championship, return more experience than anyone in the district and they added dynamic transfer QB Noah Spinks from Flower Mound. Atascocita will be right there with a shot too, returning the indescribably electric Cardae Mack along with Rocket Rasheed and C.J. Toney on offense. Trenton Blaylock (Jr), one of the state’s top DBs, leads a relatively inexperienced Atascocita defense.
Look for CE King to get back into the playoffs this year as they return dynamic backfield tandem of Dionne Sims and State 100m dash finalist, Dillon Mitchell (Soph)
24-6A Projection
Somehow this district always seems to end in a convoluted, multi-team tie at the top, but Dickinson appears to be a clear favorite in ‘25. The Gators return the most experience in the district and should have the best D in the district, which is scary since they also return Aguirre, Gamble, and Peterson on offense.
Clear Springs and Clear Falls look practically inseparable on paper although high-impact transfers could impact the race, with District Defensive MVP Za’Qwuan Nunn leaving Clear Springs for North Shore and Kyden Barker returning at QB for Falls after a season at Galveston Ball. Deer Park looks like an easy pick for fourth here with the bottom-end of the district appearing to be too far back to contend for now.