As we look ahead to this weekend’s area round matchups, we just wanted to put some thoughts regarding the metrics and other general thoughts about certain matchups down on “paper”. Some of these are thoughts we expressed on the weekly podcast as well.
Prosper vs. South Grand Prairie (Fri, 11/18, 7pm, Choctaw Stadium in Arlington)
Prosper favored by 20, 89% expected win percentage
The elo model is only giving SGP an 11% chance to win against Prosper, but the unit matchups above, powered by our in-season metrics, points to a game that should be much closer than the projected 20 point margin. South Grand Prairie’s 88-grade defense holds a slight advantage over the Prosper offense, while Prosper’s 99-grade defense holds a medium advantage over the SGP offense. From an overall dominance standpoint, once again, Prosper holds the advantage, but only slight. The five losses on the season for SGP obviously jumps off of the page, but consider that four of those five losses all came against playoff teams and all were by less than touchdown. Additionally, they also have a 13-point loss to Arlington Martin in which they held Martin 17-points below their average offensive output. Let’s keep an eye on this one.
Lewisville vs. Arlington Martin (Fri, 11/18, 7pm, Ford Stadium)
Arlington Martin favored by less than a field goal, 55% expected win percentage
When looking at any matchup involving the Farmers, the main thing to consider is how the Farmers’ 98 grade defense stacks up against their opponent. Unlike most in the state, Martin can actually counter with an offense strong enough (98-grade) to erase that defense vs. offense advantage Lewisville has had all year over their other opponents. Even before last week’s matchup with Allen, the in-season metrics pointed to a sizable Lewisville defensive advantage versus the Allen offense, and that played out as the Eagles didn’t get out of the teens. Another Farmer overperformance certainly isn’t out of the question because that’s just kind of their DNA at this point and we do think that’s why the elo model is suggesting a less than a field goal between the two. However, the in-season metrics suggest Martin should win by more than what elo is projecting.
The Woodlands vs. Klein Cain (Fri, 11/18, 7pm, Woodforest Bank Stadium)
The Woodlands favored by a touchdown, 68% expected win percentage
The eye test on The Woodlands has been questionable at times throughout the season, but they do have an early season win over Houston Lamar that continues to look better and better. However, the midseason loss to New Caney has started to look even weaker as of late. Similarly, Cain has a win over Klein Collins, but a loss against Klein Oak that gives pause. The Highlanders have all the matchup advantages in this one, albeit slight across the board. This points to a tighter matchup than the 68% win probability suggests, should probably be closer to 55% in the Highlanders favor suggesting a relative coin toss.
Cy-Fair vs. Katy Cinco Ranch (Fri, 11/18, 7pm, Pridgeon Stadium in Cypress)
Cy-Fair favored by 16, 84% expected win percentage
There’s really no statistic that can capture how just volatile this game could be. Cinco Ranch’s defense hasn’t been good this season; there’s no other way to put it. They have their work cut out in slowing down Cy-Fair junior QB Trey Owens. Cinco Ranch’s offense can make a good defense look very average to not good at times. This is largely due to their signal caller in Gavin Rutherford and the receiving corps he has at his disposal. Rutherford can also run really well. Looking at the metrics above, both offenses predictably hold the advantage against the opposing defense, however Cy-Fair’s advantage is massive. If Cinco Ranch’s defense can perform above expectations in this one-and-done scenario, things could get interesting. Either way, they better have an extra scoreboard ready to go at Pridgeon.
Coin Tosses
These are games that project largely as coin tosses (less than a field goal margin) by the model, the in-season metrics, and our “eye” test.