As we look ahead to this weekend’s area round matchups, we just wanted to put some thoughts regarding the metrics and other general thoughts about certain matchups down on “paper”. Some of these are thoughts we expressed on the weekly podcast as well.
Denton Guyer vs. Highland Park (Fri 11/18, 7pm, The Star in Frisco)
Guyer favored by 17, 86% expected win percentage
The elo model says comfortable Guyer win, however, the matchup advantages say that there’s almost nothing between the two. One thing to note, Guyer will be down stud junior DB Eli Bowen, the younger half of the Bowen brothers that have dominated on the defensive backend for Guyer, so that’s a tough loss. That loss also couldn’t come at a worse time with Brennan Storer and his no less than four stud receivers in Jackson Heis, Luke Herring, Beau Lilly, and Grayson Shrank up next. This will present a test that the Guyer defense has not faced all year. It also won’t be the first time HP faces a tough defense as they rolled up 18 points more on the Lewisville D than they gave up on average the rest of the season. Conversely, we’re all well aware of what Guyer brings to the table offensively and HP hasn’t seen anything like their group. Can Highland Park rediscover some of that early season steam that had them performing like a top 5-10 team in the state? You shouldn’t ever count out a program that has the success they’ve enjoyed for a long time. Guyer’s very difficult road to another state title appearance starts here and this could be the biggest obstacle in their way.
McKinney vs. Dallas Jesuit (Fri 11/18, 7pm, Prosper Children’s Health Stadium)
McKinney favored by a field goal, 58% expected win percentage
Before running the updated metrics, we wouldn’t have guessed it would be the Jesuit side that holds the largest matchup advantage in this game, Jesuit’s 85 grade on offense versus McKinney’s 70 grade defense. Having said that, McKinney emerged from one of the toughest districts in the state (Allen, Guyer, Prosper) as a playoff qualifier, so they’re extremely battle-tested and put up some good fights along the way. That’s exactly what the elo model has picked up here in slightly favoring McKinney. Clearly there’s some juice in this Jesuit team, they were able to turn around a big halftime deficit against Highland Park and came up just short, but we just don’t have much else to go off of in order to call for the upset here.
Humble Summer Creek vs. Alvin Shadow Creek (Fri 11/18, 7pm, TDECU Stadium)
Shadow Creek favored by a field goal, 59% expected win percentage
The matchup advantages for Shadow Creek come in so razor thin, you really wouldn’t even consider them advantages. Similar to the previous game, one of these teams is highly battle tested this year and one is not. Summer Creek has been highly competitive this season against the likes of Klein Cain, Klein Collins, North Shore, and wins over Clear Falls and CE King. Many of these same players took Katy down to the wire in last year’s playoffs and a big reason why they came in so highly ranked in the preseason. Meanwhile, the best we data point we have so far on Shadow Creek is an early season 11 point win over Clear Springs. There’s also zero talent disparity among these two, which is something both sides usually enjoy over their opponents. Given that, along with the tight margins throughout the metrics and model, this feels like a great spot to go against the model and have a major upset watch on this one.
San Antonio Warren vs. Harlingen (Fri 11/18, 7pm, Farris Stadium in San Antonio)
Harlingen favored by 12, 78% expected win percentage
The metrics point to a strength-on-weakness kind of matchup and whomever does a better job exploiting that advantage will move on. Our overall dominance metric rates the two very similarly, while the elo model shockingly favors Harlingen by almost two touchdowns. Looking under the hood, that projected margin seems high. First of all, Harlingen has to travel all the way up to San Antonio, secondly, it’s San Antonio versus the RGV, and lastly, we actually do have a common opponent from this season where both teams beat Laredo United by a touchdown. While anything can happen in a one-and-done scenario, everything points to this one being a very tight contest that could go either way. How well does Warren handle Harligen’s ground attack? How well does Harlingen handle Warren’s aerial attack?
Coin Tosses
These are games that project largely as coin tosses (less than a field goal margin) by the model, the in-season metrics, and our “eye” test.