The model correctly picked 87.2% of this week’s winners (read more on our process here if you haven’t already). As you can see in the chart below, our average performance during Week 10 of the season was around 81.9%.
Below, we’ll slice and dice the data from Week 10 to highlight some of the most interesting results.
Top 10 Week 10 Matchups
Sorted on top combined elos + expected margin of victory of two touchdowns or less
Top 10 Week 10 Biggest Upsets
Sorted by largest pre-game win probabilities of losing teams. For example, Clear Creek had an 99% probability of losing this week, but won by three points. As a result, Clear Creek gained 177 Elo for outperforming expectations.
Week 10 Top 10 Largest Elo Points Added
Week 10 Top 10 Expected winners who outperformed
Filtered on expected win percentage > 50 %, sorted by most elo added
These are teams that came into the week expected to win their respective games, but still surprised to the upside by well outperforming their expected margin of victory (MOV).
ALL Week 10 Results
All game results below, including model performance, plus Elo rating changes (in green next to team name/record) from pre-game to post-game for every team