TNG 2023 6A Region 1 Preview
Regional Top 20, District Projections w/ Playoff Odds (new!), and analysis
In each of our regional previews, we’ll present the Top 20 teams in the region, also showing where they rank in the state and what playoff bracket they’re projected to be in based on our District Projections which follow below. In the District Projections, we’ll show you projected standings based on our preseason Elo ratings, complete with a brand-new feature where we’ll show you each team’s calculated odds to make the playoffs. More on that in a minute. In the district tables below, you’ll also see each team’s state and regional rank, their strength of schedule (SOS) based on our Elo ratings of their opponents, and you’ll see each team’s final Elo rating from last year as well as their 5-yr final Elo rating average.
Let’s dive into the Playoff Odds projections a bit. We looked at the number of wins it took for every team to make the playoffs in each district based on the number of teams in the district. We found that in 9-team districts it took 5 district wins to practically guarantee at least a tie for a playoff spot; in 8-team districts it took 4; in 7-team districts it took 3; and in 6 team districts it took just 2 district wins to at least tie for a playoff spot. Some teams were able to squeak in with less, but we used the aforementioned thresholds to calculate the numbers below. So, effectively, what you see in the district tables are the odds each team reaches the minimum district win tally that should get them at least tied for a playoff berth. Those odds are calculated off the projected win percentages generated by each team’s Elo rating. With that groundwork laid, let’s jump in!
Region 1 Top 20
1-6A Projection
After winning their first District Title since beginning varsity play in 2016, we are projecting Pebble Hills to repeat in 2023 thanks to a wealth of returning talent, not least of which is returning District MVP and Honorable Mention All-State QB Gael Ochoa. Pebble Hills returns 11 All-District performers in total from their 10-win squad from a year ago. The Spartans’ top challengers will be the Eastwood Troopers and the Franklin Cougars, who are also led by top returning QBs in Evan Minjarez and Shay Smith. Minjarez was so good for the Troopers last year that he received All-State honors. The Troopers return the most experience of any team in the district, boasting returning 13 All-District performers. Franklin is a sure bet for a playoff spot, but they were well off the pace of the top two last year and they don’t return as much experience either.
The race for 4th looks like it will come down to Americas and Eastlake yet again with the edge going to Americas this year on the strength of QB Mark Moore retuning with 5 other All-District returnees, while Eastlake has to replace four first-team All-District defenders from the district’s best defense.
2-6A Projection
Last year’s district race finished with Legacy, Frenship, and Permian tied with 4-1 records, with Frenship ultimately claiming the top spot. Legacy and Frenship have two of the most prolific QBs in Texas returning in Marcos Davila and Hudson Hutcheson, who you may not know as much about. Hutcheson threw for over 3,700 yards and had a 36-7 TD-INT ratio last year and he has 7 other All-District starters back with him on the offensive side of the ball. Where we gave the slight edge to Legacy, however, was on the backs of their returning defense, which has 7 returning All-District performers. Legacy didn’t have a great defense last year, but was already ahead of Frenship’s unit which allowed 35 ppg.
Permian looks like a solid pick for 3rd here with Midland, Central and the Bronchos of Odessa chasing. Permian should once again feature the district’s top defense and that unit should keep them clear of the final three, but that last spot is anyone’s to claim. All three suffered heavy graduation losses, but Midland returns the most All-District players of the bunch, while Odessa returns one of the best players in the state in All-State WR Ivan Carreon. Central has the unenviable task of replacing 20 starters.
3-6A Projection
North Crowley was one of the surprises of the 2022 season, racing out to a 12-0 record before falling to Prosper in the 3rd round of the playoffs. We’re projecting the Panthers to repeat as champs with 5 first-team All-District defenders returning from the district’s best defense as well as breakout QB Chris Jimmerson back for his junior year. The race for second and third also looks like a repeat of last year, with Trinity and Boswell looking fairly close to one another again. Boswell beat Trinity handily last year, but has far more to replace in terms of proven talent, while Trinity also holds an edge in their historical consistency. Still, it’s a fine margin separating the two, especially with Boswell returning QB Sawyer Farr.
Even closer in proximity in terms of our preseason ratings are Weatherford and Crowley. While Crowley made the playoffs last year, Weatherford is projected ahead based on their recent history. Now under the leadership of Carlos Lynn and with QB Caleb Williams and WR DK West returning, it would be no surprise to see Crowley back in the playoffs, however.
Bell could join the race for the postseason yet again, but they appear to have too much to replace, especially on defense, to stay with the top 5 here.
4-6A Projection
The Carroll Dragons are no surprise as the top pick here and are runaway favorites to capture a 6th consecutive district title. The Dragons’ already loaded returning offense was bolstered by the arrival of 4-star transfer RB Riley Wormley in the offseason to lessen the blow of losing Owen Allen. Carroll’s top challengers will once again be Byron Nelson and Keller, though both lost their star QBs from a year ago. In the case of Byron Nelson, they return a highly-experienced and immensely talented defense, led by OLB Ashton Williams and S David Kabongo. The Bobcats were surprisingly good on D last year and should be even better in ‘23 with 8 starters back. On offense for the Bobcats, get familiar with the name Grant Bizjack; the incoming Jr. signal-caller will likely light it up this fall. Keller has been consistently better than the rest of the pack and is a good bet for 3rd here with 6 returning All-District players back on offense.
The battle for 4th should be a good one once again, but Eaton looks to have separated from the pack a little bit with highly-touted QB Noah Lugo returning along with Jr. WRs Talan Holmes and Mason Stubbe. Fossil Ridge also returns their QB in Logan Cundiff, but returns less overall as compared to Eaton. Timber Creek crashed the party and made the playoffs last year, but they don’t appear to have as much coming back as those ahead of them.
5-6A Projection
This is one of the clearer district outlooks in terms of the four projected playoff teams. The bottom four could compete for a playoff spot in many districts, but they just happen to reside in one of the best districts in the state, featuring the reigning D1 and D2 Region 1 champions. Even losing an incredible class led by Jackson Arnold and Peyton Bowen, Guyer is still the favorite to win district. The Wildcats will likely field the best defense in the district, led by DTs Ukponu and Olanipekun, while Eli Bowen will lead the secondary. Speaking of defense, you know last year’s Region 1 D1 champs Prosper are going to be in the mix, but they’ve got a number of holes to fill after losing most of their defensive studs to graduation. Prosper, encouragingly, was able to hire from within to replace outgoing Coach Schmidt to maintain their momentum as a program.
Allen and McKinney will certainly have a say in the district race too. Allen will hope that RB Kayvion Sibley can return to form after an injury ended a great start to 2022 and the Eagles will be looking to transfer-QB Mickey Gow after losing several high-profile transfers of their own. McKinney looks primed to continue their upward trajectory and if they can replace QB Keldric Luster, the Lions are talented enough to find themselves in the 4th round of the playoffs or later. Beyond McKinney, the hill looks simply too steep for the rest of the district to climb their way into the fray.
6-6A Projection
In terms of our preseason Elo ratings, Lewisville has one of the four largest gaps between a 1st and 2nd place projection in any district in the entire state. The Farmers have been trending upward lately and come into this season looking like a regional champion. Marcus and Coppell look like solid bets to make the playoffs and you might keep a close eye on Coppell, specifically. The Cowboys are loaded with promising young talent and if they come good sooner rather than later, they could really surprise this fall.
As was the case last year, the battle for fourth is going to be wild. It’s worth noting that the projections above are based on the odds to reach 4 district wins, and last year it was a three-way tie at 3-4 that decided the final playoff spot; the percentages above indicate a similar possibility for this year. Our model is also picking up on Hebron’s stronger recent history to propel them to their projected 5th place finish despite heavy graduation losses, while Flower Mound could possibly take fourth based on their stronger returning nucleus. Plano has enough coming back that they should also be in the mix following their playoff appearance last year and the Wildcats also will introduce a new, high-profile, head coach in Cody White who won four state-titles in Tennessee.
7-6A Projection
Highland Park jumped into a favorable district with a great senior class in their first foray into 6A and made a good account of themselves. The Scots sophomore campaign at the highest level, however, will come with significant rebuilding to do on both sides of the ball. But, surprising to absolutely nobody at all, they’ll probably be just fine at QB as Warren Peck looks like he’ll be able to carry on the tradition of great QB play under Randy Allen.
Jesuit and Lake Highlands could be down a fair amount from last year, judging by what each have returning and what they lost, but they are both well-established playoff programs that have proven to reload, and they are well clear of the bottom five in this district. Berkner looks poised to build on their profile and looks like a pretty safe pick to finish at least fourth here, which would give them three straight playoff appearances; something the Rams haven’t achieved since the early 2000’s.
8-6A Projection
Despite losing long-time, legendary Head Coach Bob Wager to Matt Rhule’s staff at Nebraska, Arlington Martin is once again the class of this district. The Warriors return 9 All-District players from a 10-2 squad a year ago, including their trio of 1st team All-District LBs. By hiring from within, Martin is likely to carry forward the championship culture established by Coach Wager.
Behind Martin, there’s a sizeable gap to Arlington, SGP, and Bowie who are all packed tightly together in the projection, with Arlington and SGP separated by rounded fractions of a point. SGP returns as the least experienced team of that group, with Bowie and Arlington both projected to take sizeable steps forward. Arlington Lamar returns nearly as much experience as Bowie and Arlington, but the Vikings were beaten handily by all of the teams projected ahead of them and those teams, if anything, will be better.