TNG 2023 6A Region 2 Preview
Regional Top 20, District Projections w/ Playoff Odds (new!), and analysis
In each of our regional previews, we’ll present the Top 20 teams in the region, also showing where they rank in the state and what playoff bracket they’re projected to be in based on our District Projections which follow below. In the District Projections, we’ll show you projected standings based on our preseason Elo ratings, complete with a brand-new feature where we’ll show you each team’s calculated odds to make the playoffs. More on that in a minute. In the district tables below, you’ll also see each team’s state and regional rank, their strength of schedule (SOS) based on our Elo ratings of their opponents, and you’ll see each team’s final Elo rating from last year as well as their 5-yr final Elo rating average.
Let’s dive into the Playoff Odds projections a bit. We looked at the number of wins it took for every team to make the playoffs in each district based on the number of teams in the district. We found that in 9-team districts it took 5 district wins to practically guarantee at least a tie for a playoff spot; in 8-team districts it took 4; in 7-team districts it took 3; and in 6 team districts it took just 2 district wins to at least tie for a playoff spot. Some teams were able to squeak in with less, but we used the aforementioned thresholds to calculate the numbers below. So, effectively, what you see in the district tables are the odds each team reaches the minimum district win tally that should get them at least tied for a playoff berth. Those odds are calculated off the projected win percentages generated by each team’s Elo rating. With that groundwork laid, let’s jump in!
9-6A Projection
If you’ve already checked out any of the other regional previews, the odds table above for 9-6A might be a bit jarring. And if this is the first one you’re looking at, well, this is one of a kind! Last year’s 9-6A race not only surprised everyone by being ultimately decided by Wylie East vs Wylie in Week 8, but by how completely unpredictable it was week to week. We weren’t even able to determine what playoff bracket teams would end up in until all of the games were played. Looking at how relatively low the top teams’ Playoff Odds are above, the model is pointing to a similarly tight battle from top to bottom with places 1 through 8 being separated by only 278 Elo points, or about 11 points on the field.
Wylie East looks likely to edge out Wylie again based on the strength of their returning defense which has 6 All-District returnees compared to Wylie’s 4. Sachse and Naaman are in similar places to one another in terms of their roster turnover, but it’s worth noting that a good portion of Naaman’s group will just be Jr’s this fall. Rowlett should contend as they typically do, but North Garland may be the real sleeper team here with QB Godspower Nwawuihe returning to lead the way.
10-6A Projection
Rockwall, with stud Jr QB Landyn Locke leading an offense that will also feature RB Ashten Emory and WR Kai Helton appears be in good shape to defend their district crown despite heavy graduation losses from a solid defensive unit. The Jackets have been consistently among the top 30 teams in the state since 2014 and that shouldn’t change this year. Mesquite Horn should again prove to be Rockwall’s primary challenger and they could end up as one of the real darkhorses statewide with 16 players returning who earned All-District honors. Even though 10-6A is incredibly giving with its All-District selections, 16 returning is a significant amount of experience coming back in any case, and the Jags have high-end talent across the board.
Despite a tumultuous Spring which saw the replacement of their Head Coach, The Heath Hawks should be in prime position for a playoff spot. Like Rockwall, their offense will be led by the younger brother of a program legend in QB Caleb Hoover. The surprise pick in this district is Tyler Legacy, who was 2-8 last year. Legacy returns a ton of talent including 1st team All-District QB Luke Wolf and All-State LB Brooks Gallagher and now has Beau Trahan leading their program as Head Coach. We may be selling Mesquite short here by having them behind Legacy, but Legacy got the nod with their QB back along with more returning on defense.
11-6A Projection
The so-called “District of Doom” lived up to its moniker last fall, producing both the Division 1 and Division 2 State Champions as Duncanville and DeSoto captured impressive and elusive titles. The district encounters between the two have been lopsided in Duncanville’s favor recently, but this year’s game has the potential to be a better one thanks to DeSoto returning a higher percentage of their key contributors. Regardless of the recent history between the two, this year’s meeting will be one of the most anticipated regular season games in a very long time.
Behind those two, Waxahachie may be due for a bit of a pullback but they should have enough to secure a playoff spot, leaving the Division 2 bracket participants to deal with an even better DeSoto squad than the one that won it all last year. Lake Ridge, Cedar Hill, and Mansfield appear to be destined for quite a scrap to see who emerges with the fourth playoff berth. We have Lake Ridge slightly ahead due to QB Kennen Miller entering his 3rd year as their starting QB and due to how far Cedar Hill needs to climb, and with how much Mansfield has to replace. Cedar Hill has the most upside of that group and could very well make the postseason despite having the state’s #1 most difficult schedule.
12-6A Projection
Interestingly, all of the teams in this district except for Hutto appear to be taking a step back, as evidenced by the changes from each team’s final 2022 Elo and their ‘23 Preseason ratings. Harker Heights and Temple still appear to be ahead of the rest of the pack, even with Harker Heights losing RB Reshaun Sanford and Temple losing a very talented senior class. Harker Heights has the added challenge of breaking in a new Head Coach from outside the program, so we’ll see how that plays out.
Hutto’s third place projection is largely due to the enormously talented duo of returning All-State QB Will Hammond and WR Alex Green, but they will have to tighten up on D after allowing 37ppg last season. Weiss and Bryan have about an equal chance of grabbing a playoff spot, it appears. Bryan returns more experience than Weiss, but that Jax Madden Brown (Jr.) to WR Adrian Wilson (Jr.) connection could prove to be as prolific as the aforementioned Hutto duo, possibly booking a return trip to the postseason for the Wolves.
13-6A Projection
If you have the pleasure of watching 13-6A on a regular basis this fall, you are in for a treat. The Woodlands will feature one of the most talented offensive rosters in the state. New Caney will have one of the state’s top defensive units. Willis has an explosive offense led by arguably the best QB in the nation. Oak Ridge has Adrian Peterson’s younger brother at running back and one of the best LB’s in the country in Justin Williams. College Park has one of the best playmakers around in Connor Dunphy. And Grand Oaks has one of the best TEs in the country in Ty Rupe as well as a Freshman QB, Grant Smith, already garnering D1 attention. In the middle of all of that Conroe has 11 All-District returnees.
The Woodlands should come out on top here, but they’ll need to be wary of New Caney who held them to just 7 points last year and they return 8 All-District defenders. Willis was incredibly young last year and fought through QB DJ Lagway’s injury woes in Coach Miller’s first season in control. Expect the Kats to make a big jump forward this year. Despite the talent elsewhere, Oak Ridge still seems in good position to grab fourth, but again look out for Conroe. They’ve been quietly improving and they could make a run.
14-6A Projection
The projected playoff picture for 14-6A happens to line up just as it finished last fall. Westfield is the obvious and unquestionable leader of this group and looks plenty capable of getting another shot at Duncanville after taking the champs to a one score game in last year’s D1 regional final. The Mustang defense this year will be one of the Top 5 in the state, featuring 6 1st team All-District defenders including All-Stater Bryson Balka and Xavier McCray on the DL and transfer S Joseph Albright, who came over from Eisenhower. DeKaney is the clear pick for the number two spot, returning 9 All-District performers from last year’s 9-4 squad including WR Tonook Hines, All-State DE Christian Nwosu, and a host of other highly-recruited ballers.
Eisenhower is projected in third, returning the most experience out of the rest of the playoff contenders, but Nimitz and Spring could be right there with them. Nimitz has made back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 2013 and looks to continue that run under Cornelius Harmon. Spring is in the best position to challenge Ike and Nimitz for the final playoff spot as the Lions lost their last 3 district games by less than 10 points each to the three teams picked above them in our projections and returns a similar amount of production.
15-6A Projection
This always hotly-contested North Houston district looks to deliver yet again in ‘23 with what should be another wild chase for that final playoff spot. Collins is our pick to take the district title this year, returning All-State QB Tucker Parks and 9 other All-District starters from a team that narrowly lost to Westfield, 41-38, in the second round last year. Behind the Tigers are two apparent playoff locks in Klein Cain and Tomball. Both programs have demonstrated the ability to reload after losing talented seniors, which is a testament to the work going on in both fieldhouses. The metric separating these two teams ever so slightly is our defensive projection; Cain lost more production on that side, while Tomball is bringing back much more experience, but the computer is still basically considering these two on equal footing.
The ultimate battle in this district will be a four-way fight to the finish between Klein Forest, Tomball Memorial, Klein, and Klein Oak. Klein Forest is our pick based on their returning experience and their clear upward momentum under Jonathan Wilson. Tomball Memorial will be their usual high-powered selves with new QB Lane Stockton taking the reins WR Ashton Ainsley returning, but their defense will likely determine their fate. Klein and Klein Oak are within striking distance based on their historical Elo performance, but return a good bit less proven production as the other two they’re battling.
16-6A Projection
If you liked last year’s madness in 16-6A, you’re likely to enjoy this year’s edition too. Four teams ended the 2022 season with 5-2 district records with Bridgeland taking the district title. As you can see in the table above, the top three are separated by less than 50 Elo points, or less than 2 pts on the field, while Cy Woods and Cy Springs appear to be in a dead heat in the race for the final playoff spot.
Cy Falls and Cy Ranch return the most 1st and 2nd team All-District performers with Bridgeland not too far behind. We like Cy Falls as the top pick here based on the strength of their returning defense as well as, of course, All-State RB Trey Morris back for another year. It’s possible that the computer is underrating the Golden Eagles’ potential, in fact. Cy Ranch is a mainstay at the top of the district and of course should never be discounted. Bridgeland, in their early days, has established themselves as a perennial contender. The Bears have to replace Coach Raffield who started the program, but brought in Lonnie Madison who did an admirable job at College Park. Cy Woods holds a razor-thin advantage over Cy Springs in our ratings based on their recent history, but Springs has enough coming back including QB Harrison Mass to make a real run a their first playoff appearance since 2003.