TNG 2023 6A Region 3 Preview
Regional Top 20, District Projections w/ Playoff Odds (new!), and analysis
In each of our regional previews, we’ll present the Top 20 teams in the region, also showing where they rank in the state and what playoff bracket they’re projected to be in based on our District Projections which follow below. In the District Projections, we’ll show you projected standings based on our preseason Elo ratings, complete with a brand-new feature where we’ll show you each team’s calculated odds to make the playoffs. More on that in a minute. In the district tables below, you’ll also see each team’s state and regional rank, their strength of schedule (SOS) based on our Elo ratings of their opponents, and you’ll see each team’s final Elo rating from last year as well as their 5-yr final Elo rating average.
Let’s dive into the Playoff Odds projections a bit. We looked at the number of wins it took for every team to make the playoffs in each district based on the number of teams in the district. We found that in 9-team districts it took 5 district wins to practically guarantee at least a tie for a playoff spot; in 8-team districts it took 4; in 7-team districts it took 3; and in 6 team districts it took just 2 district wins to at least tie for a playoff spot. Some teams were able to squeak in with less, but we used the aforementioned thresholds to calculate the numbers below. So, effectively, what you see in the district tables are the odds each team reaches the minimum district win tally that should get them at least tied for a playoff berth. Those odds are calculated off the projected win percentages generated by each team’s Elo rating. With that groundwork laid, let’s jump in!
17-6A Projection
Cy-Fair reclaimed the district crown last year and they are in great position to extend the gap between themselves and the rest of the district, returning Texas commit Trey Owens at QB with his three top targets back in WR Connor Porter, WR Owen Carter, and TE Cooper Stevens. Cy Creek looks like the top challenger to Cy-Fair’s repeat efforts due to returning 9 All-District starters compared to just the 4 that they lost. QB Brad Jackson returns for his 4th season as the Cougars’ QB, looking to lead them to their first playoff berth since 2020 and their first winning season since 2019. Even though they are picked 2nd, Cy Creek is far from a lock, as evidenced by the fact that the three teams immediately behind them in our projection are within 125 Elo points, or just 5 points on the field.
Jersey Village returns the most production of the chasing pack, with QB Adam Tran and RB Quinton Jones leading the way. After a head-scratching step back with a loaded roster in 2022, the Falcons will be looking to bounce back in a big way. Memorial and Stratford are projected to duke it out for the final playoff spot with their annual rivalry game quite likely to decide which of them gets in and whose season will be over after game 10.
18-6A Projection
Lamar will almost assuredly win their 12 district title in the last 13 seasons as the Texans return 12 All-District performers, 8 of which are on the offensive side of the ball. All-State WR Tristen Brown is one of the best anywhere and if Lamar can find a way to replace the production of graduated QB Kenny Rosenthal, Lamar could have an outstanding offense. Another team needing to replace a standout QB is Heights, who we have projected as #2 in the district. The Bulldogs punctuated their 2022 campaign with a stunning comeback against a heavily favored Stratford squad and should have little problem getting themselves back into the postseason for the 13th year in a row.
Westside is also looking to make the playoffs for the 13th year in a row and they appear well clear of Bellaire, Chavez, and Westbury who will be left to fight for 4th. Bellaire is favored in our model as all three return similar levels of production and Bellaire has the better track record.
19-6A Projection
Katy and Tompkins again appear to be the class of the district with the Tigers returning a strong nucleus from last year’s semifinalist squad, though will be notably without all-time leading rusher Seth Davis. The Tigers will turn to RB Romel Jordan and a committee of talented backs behind an experienced offensive line and three excellent TEs that will contribute in the running and passing game. Tompkins nearly beat Katy last year and they’ll be in good position to take another shot at a 2nd district title. The Falcons have the makings of a really strong defense, anchored by DEs Olayinka and Okundaye and their offense will be led by multi-talented QB Wyatt Young, All-State OL Aston Funk, and RB Caleb Blocker. Electric sprinter Jhase McMillan will contribute in all three phases.
We mentioned last year that Paetow and Jordan’s introduction could change the competitive balance in 19-6A and, in just year two, that appears to be taking place already. In fact, if our projection of both of them making the playoffs comes to fruition, it would push Katy to the Division 1 bracket. Jordan, in particular, adapted to 6A life much more quickly than anticipated and the Warriors have a loaded roster of skill talent back after narrowly missing the playoffs last year. QB Collin Willetts is back to lead an offense featuring a trio of Power 5 weapons in RB Chad Gasper, WR Andrew Marsh, and Ath Zechariah Sample. A small improvement on defense could have the Warriors not only making the postseason, but capable of staying around for a bit. Paetow’s first 6A season was full of adversity, but the Panthers come into ‘23 with renewed focus under HC David Hicks who seemed to galvanize the squad last season. Paetow is absolutely loaded with talent, headlined by DE Loghan Thomas, and they’ll be a tough matchup for anyone.
Cinco Ranch, though projected 5th, will definitely have a say in proceedings, but they have to replace three of the best players in school and district history all at once. Morton Ranch has an outside chance to be in the mix after making the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016, but like Cinco, they appear to have lost too much as compared to the teams picked ahead of them.
20-6A Projection
Ridge Point, incredibly, has made the playoffs in each of their 11 varsity seasons and has won the district title in 8 of those. Based on that, it may seem obvious that we’d pick them for the crown again, but Hightower’s return to the top classification has added a high quality district adversary for the Panthers and both teams enter 2023 ranked inside of the state Top 25. Ridge Point will be led by Jr. QB Austin Carlisle who burst onto the scene, midseason, as a Sophomore leading the Panthers to the third round of the playoffs. With a full offseason under his belt as the unquestioned QB1 and with one of the state’s best receiving corps featuring Mason Dossett, Ashton Bethel-Roman, and Dane Jones the sky is the limit for the Ridge Point offense. As impressive as Ridge Point looks on offense, Hightower arguably looks even better with their trio of QB Joseph Stewart, All-State RB Jeremy Payne, and WR Zion Kearney returning. The Hurricane defense is also loaded with returning talent, with 7 All-District defenders back. Last year’s game between Ridge Point and Hightower was a good one and this year’s edition could be even better.
Beyond the top two here there is a significant gap to the next closest contenders, but Travis and Clements are in good position to grab one of the final two playoff spots. Clements returns QB Gunner Chenier and WR Aidan Zhou to lead their efforts to make a 3rd straight trip to the postseason for the first time since Derek Carr was their QB in 2007.
21-6A Projection
There are very few districts where the top four are this clearly defined. North Shore, Atascocita, Summer Creek, and King are firmly established as the playoff programs in this district, with all four ranking inside our state Top 50. North Shore will move forward with longtime assistant coach, and former Mustang QB, Willie Gaston as their head man after John Kay’s surprise departure to join the staff at Rice. Coach Gaston has an unbelievably stacked squad to lead in his inaugural campaign and it’s going to take a Herculean effort for any team to stop the ‘Stangs from reaching a 5th state title game in 6 years. Atascocita flipped the script a bit last season, becoming a dominant defensive squad, but they’ll have a fairly major rebuild to do on that side of the ball. This season should see the Eagles return to form on offense, however, with Zion Brown in his third year at the helm and Tory Blalock another year faster and stronger. If Atascocita can manage to retain some of that defensive nastiness from last year, we could be underrating them here.
Summer Creek comes in to this season returning the most All-District players of any of the top four, including All-State RB Lloyd Avant, TE Kordell Rodgers, and three offensive linemen. They’re equally loaded on defense with Chad Woodfork and Kyran Duhon returning at DE, plus they welcome highly-recruited LB Xavier Atkins who moved in from Louisiana. The Bulldogs can play with anyone. Although King lost 13 of their 16 All-District performers from last year and lost a big one to North Shore in Lavonte Johnson, we don’t expect them to fall too far back based on the level they’ve established in recent years and based on the talent they always seem to have at their disposal. Expect West Brook and Humble to continue to improve, but they don’t appear quite ready to knock off any of the top four.
22-6A Projection
Channelview upended Deer Park en route to a surprise 1st district title for the program in 2022 and should contend again this year. The Falcons return QB Darius Clark-James and 8 other All-District starters from that championship team, but Deer Park returns 7 All-District performers on defense alone, giving the Deer the slight edge in our preseason projection. Last year’s game between the two was a 20-14 affair with Channelview winning. It was the only regular season game where Deer Park scored less than 33 points.
Dobie experienced a large performance dropoff last year after saying goodbye to a great 2021 offensive squad, but they should bounce back toward their norm this year, especially with the likes of RB Cameron Mathews returning. Dobie has typically been pretty good on defense too and they return four All-District defenders, giving them the edge over the rest of the playoff challengers. South Houston and Pasadena Memorial grade out similarly overall, but South Houston has the slight edge based on their best unit, (their defense) being slightly better than Memorial best (their offense).
23-6A Projection
The battle between the top three in 23-6A looks like another great one. Last year, each of the games between Shadow Creek, Pearland, and Dawson were decided by no more than 7 points and all three return similar levels of production from those squads. Shadow Creek is a jaw-dropping 57-9 as a program since coming online in 2018 and the Sharks should be very good again this year. Jacorey Watson got plenty of experience and did very well as a QB last year when starter Duke Butler missed most of the season due to injury. Where the Sharks will be especially tough though is on defense, with All-State DE Zion Taylor and S Maurice Williams leading the way.
Pearland, in their second year under B.J. Gotte, are in prime position to contend with their talented Jr. backfield duo of QB Jackson Hamilton and RB LaDamion McDowell and five other All-District starters back. The Oilers should take a big step forward on offense, but may take a step back on D where they are replacing the majority of their contributors from last year. Dawson are nearly exactly opposite with their defense looking like the obvious strength of their team. The Eagles have 8 All-District defenders returning, including all four in their secondary.
Strake Jesuit looks to have the upper hand on Alief Taylor for the final playoff spot this go around, with the Crusaders returning twice as many (6) All-District performers as compared to the Lions (3).
24-6A Projection
Similar to 23-6A, 24-6A has a very clear top three all positioned very closely to one another in our projections and all three could be better this year. Dickinson edges out Clear Falls in our projection on the strength of their recent history, giving them the virtual tiebreaker in what is otherwise a race that’s too close to call. Dickinson has been in the playoffs every year since 2013, Coach Snelson’s second season, and they’ve won district three times in that span. With exceptional talents like John Solomon and Jeremiah Scoby on offense and a defense led by CB Rodney Bimage, the Gators will be a force in the district and beyond. Clear Falls is on a run of four straight playoff appearances after not having a winning season since they opened in 2012. The Knights return nearly everyone on offense except for RB David Smith and they have talented senior QB Landon Vessell to lead them. Clear Springs will contend once again, which should be no surprise, as the Chargers have 7 outright district titles in their 15 varsity seasons and have never had a losing record. Springs returns an All-Stater on either side of the ball with OL Blake Ivy and LB Michael Sylvalie.
The race for fourth may be as up-for-grabs as the race for the district crown. Brazoswood, Clear Lake, and Clear Creek are all rated within 100 Elo points of each other, meaning they’re effectively separated by just over a FG. Both Lake and Creek return more production than Brazoswood, but neither were within 3 touchdowns of the Bucs last fall.