TNG 2023 6A Region 4 Preview
Regional Top 20, District Projections w/ Playoff Odds (new!), and analysis
In each of our regional previews, we’ll present the Top 20 teams in the region, also showing where they rank in the state and what playoff bracket they’re projected to be in based on our District Projections which follow below. In the District Projections, we’ll show you projected standings based on our preseason Elo ratings, complete with a brand-new feature where we’ll show you each team’s calculated odds to make the playoffs. More on that in a minute. In the district tables below, you’ll also see each team’s state and regional rank, their strength of schedule (SOS) based on our Elo ratings of their opponents, and you’ll see each team’s final Elo rating from last year as well as their 5-yr final Elo rating average.
Let’s dive into the Playoff Odds projections a bit. We looked at the number of wins it took for every team to make the playoffs in each district based on the number of teams in the district. We found that in 9-team districts it took 5 district wins to practically guarantee at least a tie for a playoff spot; in 8-team districts it took 4; in 7-team districts it took 3; and in 6 team districts it took just 2 district wins to at least tie for a playoff spot. Some teams were able to squeak in with less, but we used the aforementioned thresholds to calculate the numbers below. So, effectively, what you see in the district tables are the odds each team reaches the minimum district win tally that should get them at least tied for a playoff berth. Those odds are calculated off the projected win percentages generated by each team’s Elo rating. With that groundwork laid, let’s jump in!
25-6A Projection
Coming off a historic season culminating in a D2 State Championship appearance, the Vandegrift Vipers find themselves a good way clear of the rest of the district. Even though they lost the orchestrator of their creative offense, QB Brayden Buchanan, they were blessed with transfer Deuce Adams (former UT great Mike Adams’ son) who amassed 3,500 yards and 36 touchdowns last season at New Braunfels Canyon. Along with Deuce also came brother Eli, who himself is a D1 recruit, to play opposite returning All-State WR Miles Coleman. That crew plus TE Jake Skoglund and OL Blake Frazier has the makings of an explosive offense. The Vandy defense was already returning LB Ben Booher and All-State S Alex Foster, then added DL Jacob Henry who transferred in from Lake Travis. Round Rock will be solid as usual, returning 3-yr starter Mason Cochran at QB and Leonard Moore leading the secondary. The Dragons begin a new era under former DC Cody Moore who took over after Jeff Cheatham moved into the District AD role.
The final two playoff spots last year came down to a positive points tiebreaker between Cedar Ridge, Manor, and Vista Ridge ultimately sending Cedar Ridge and Manor through. Looking at the projected odds above, we could be in for another nailbiter given how closely rated all of the teams are from Manor down to even Westwood. Of that group, Manor actually returns the least experience, but did welcome back former QB Jason Zardavets. Keep an eye on McNeil as they return 11 All-District players returning from last season; the most of any of the teams below Round Rock in the projection.
26-6A Projection
This looks to be about as clean and decided of a top four as possible before we even hit Fall camp. The Westlake Chaparrals still figure to enter the season as comfortable favorites mostly on the strength of returning experience at the quarterback position in Paxton Land and one of the top running backs in the state Jack Kayser. Westlake rarely has ever had too much trouble reloading at offensive skill positions, but replacing the dominance of their defensive line the last couple seasons could be an area where they fall off a bit. In fact, our model has Westlake coming back to the pack quite a bit, but such has been their dominance in recent years that a large regression in the ratings still has them comfortably first in district and within the state Top 5. Just like the Chaps (and Drip), Lake Travis brings back eight All-District players including their QB-RB combo of Kadyn Leon and Nico Hamilton. Though they lost Jacob Henry to Vandegrift, the Cavs still have Jr. DE Gustavo Cordova to anchor their defensive front. We’re expecting Lake Travis to rise back toward their well-established program norm after a disappointing 2022.
Dripping Springs made one heck of an entrance into 6A and look a good bet to remain firmly in the picture despite losing QB Austin Novosad to graduation. A little drop in offensive output might be expected but the Tigers may have an Ace up their sleeve in incoming QB Jack Williams. Williams can sling it and he is a threat with his legs. He’ll have RB Jack Tyndall and All-State WR Kyle Koch back behind an experienced O-line. The Drip D-line should be outstanding with Tomsen Vickery, Rio Hay, and Elijah Gonzales, another All-Stater, returning. Bowie, despite returning 0 All-District players from a year ago seems comfortably in in 4th even after a decent regression in their numbers due to the chasers not appearing ready to mount a challenge. Of the group on the outside of the playoff picture and looking in, Austin High has by far the most returning talent, but they still are likely to be too far off the pace.
27-6A Projection
The top half of the district looks pretty locked in according to our model, but the bottom half is much tighter. The common theme among those at the top is a returning starter at the all-important quarterback position. Cibolo Steele, in particular, comes in looking really strong right from top to bottom with 10 all-district players back and a hotbed of talent to draw from year in and year out. We expect the young Knights to make another big jump in quality and could start to resemble the Steele teams of the previous decade that were state title contenders in more years than not. QB Chad Warner was outstanding in his Sophomore season and should make a big jump this year. He’ll have WRs Royal Capell and Jalen Cooper back, and remember the name Jonathan Hatton Jr; the incoming Soph RB is already 6’1 193 and has several P5 offers.
New Braunfels finished last season rated just ahead of Judson in Elo and with both returning similar production, the Unicorns get the pre-season nod between the two. QB Leighton Adams and WR Lance Beeghley will lead a dangerous Unicorn offense, but they’ll have some rebuilding work to do on D. Judson returns Jr. QB Elijah Favela who put up big numbers last year and they have RB Nate Stanley back as well. Judson has more production back on D than New Braunfels, but the gap they have to make up from last year between the two defenses was significant. Between the final three in the district, Clemens returns the most experience, but their advantage isn’t enough to create real separation between themselves, San Marcos, and East Central. It should be a close race for 4th.
28-6A Projection
The Reagan Rattlers went 8-0 and won every district game by double digits a season ago and they return seven of their twelve all district players, including the underclassman tandem of QB Cappuccio and RB Pryor. These two combined for nearly 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns as sophomores. Five of the seven returning all-district players on the defensive side of the ball which means that we’re projecting a slight improvement on a last year’s good unit.
The battle for second place is where the intrigue lies with both Brandeis and Johnson separated by one point on the field according to their preseason Elo ratings. Brandeis struggled a bit on offense last year and they lost star QB J.C. Evans, who transferred to Florida. Johnson was the complete opposite, with struggles on the defensive side of the ball and they return just two All-District defenders. Johnson’s dynamic quarterback Ty Hawkins returns after lighting up the scene with his electric ability as a sophomore, rolling up 3,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns.
Among the group challenging for fourth place, Madison appears to be in the best shape. The Mavs feature WR Jordan Clay, who was a 1st team All-District selection as a Freshman. Last year’s suprise playoff team, Churchill, returns just one of eight All-District performers and Clark returns none out of ten. Roosevelt has more returning, but they have a good bit of ground to make up on Madison to challenge for a spot.
29-6A Projection
After an incredible run of 35-5 over their last three seasons, the Brennan Bears will be looking to a new crop of talent to continue their excellent form following the graduation of the Dubose twins, Aaron and Ashton. We’re projecting a fair reversion in their overall numbers, but Brennan has been so far out ahead of their district mates that they still project at the top. The Dubose brothers and other Seniors accounted for roughly 85% of Brennan’s offensive production, so there’s bound to be a dip offensively. The Bears, however, will feature another QB-WR tandem that could wreak havoc on the district for the next three years in Cayden Glass and Donivin Lard. The Bears should continue to be solid defensively, giving their young guns on offense some time to adjust. Keep an eye on Warren. When a team returns 3,400 yards and 45 touchdowns from the quarterback position, as Warren does, who narrowly lost to a very good Brennan squad last season, we can see a scenario where Warren can mount a challenge.
It’s hard to see anyone besides Warren challenging Brennan at the top. Harlan posted a very respectable 10 win season in ‘22, but got hammered by graduation, though they do return QB Noah Farris. Taft and Harlan enter the new season looking fairly similar across the board and we don’t see anyone really pushing either of those two for the final playoff spots.
30-6A Projection
All of the teams in 30-6A were quite young overall last season and all of the teams with the exception of Johnson are returning their quarterbacks and a chunk of production. This is reflected in their final ‘22 Elos and their preseason ‘23 Elos in the table above. Eagle Pass and Laredo United return 10 and 12 All-District performers, respectively. Eagle Pass has been a playoff regular since 2017, winning the district three times and posting three 9-win season in that span. The Eagles had the district’s best offense last season, and with 6 All-District players back on that side of the ball, we expect that to be the case in ‘23 as well. Laredo United returns QB Atzel Chavez to lead the most experienced offense in the district, but the Longhorns’ main struggle last year was on the defense. They’ll need a significant improvement on D to take down the Eagles.
You’d be hard pressed to find a team that played in more one score contests than United South did a year ago (7!), including a victory over Eagle Pass, but from a returning production standpoint, they only return half as much as the two projected ahead of them. Alexander also returns double digit all-district players giving them an apparent slight advantage over Del Rio in the race for that last playoff spot.
31-6A Projection
Edinburg North went undefeated in district play last year on the strength of their defense, but the Cougars suffered heavy graduation losses on that side of the ball, opening the door for PSJA to possibly win their first district title since 2018. The Bears were very young and return several key pieces from last year’s sophomore class. QB Jaime Lopez is back along with WRs Caleb Salas and Ryan Vallejo to lead the offense, and on defense the Bears feature LB Cody Longoria and DB Diego Santos.
Edinburg and Mission appear to be the two teams best positioned of the remaining four to grab playoff spots. Edinburg returns Jr QB Jae Santa Maria and Mission was very young, especially on defense. Mission has typically been the best defense in the district in recent years, but struggled mightily last year. Even a partial return to form will have them in good shape to get back in the postseason.
32-6A Projection
We regularly sang the praises of both Harlingen and San Benito last season and neither let us down. Though both would’ve liked to have been a little more competitive in going up against Dripping Springs and Austin Westlake, respectively, they join by a long list of good programs that have struggled with these two over recent years. Harlingen posted their first 12 win season since winning 13 in 2011. San Benito posted their first 11 win season since winning 12 in 2017. What’s exciting entering this season is that there’s real reason for optimism that both programs will continue their excellence. Two of the main reasons for Harlingen and San Benito’s success (outside of the coaching staffs) were QB Randy Morales for the Cardinals and RB Fabian Garcia for the Greyhounds, and both are returning. Garcia ran his way to well over 2,000 yards and 30 touchdowns as a junior and absolutely carried San Benito on his back at 10 yards a pop. The two teams are only separated by one single Elo point, signaling a virtual toss-up for the district crown. If San Benito were able to win it, it would be their first title since 2017.
Don’t sleep on Los Fresnos, however. We’re projecting a sizeable jump offensively as they were extremely young last season in key spots, most notably at QB where Freshman Robert Pineda earned 1st team All-District honors. Los Fresnos will need a significant improvement on defense to catch up to the top two, but their offense will be on par with the Greyhounds and Cards. Weslaco is down compared to what they’ve been historically and it’s hard to see an avenue where they challenge the top three this year, but they should still good enough to grab that last projected playoff spot.