TNG 2023 Class 6A Area Round Recap
See how the model performed and review the most interesting results of an absolutely unreal Area Round...
This year’s Area Round was truly an All-Timer. We discuss all of these results in much greater detail in this week’s TNG Podcast, so we definitely encourage you to check that out if you haven’t already. It’s rare that so many games in one week live up to their pre-game billing. This week we not only had close games that were projected to be close, but several that went to overtime resulting in upsets, a near upset of the decade (or longer), and we had some favorites barely surviving. In all, nine games came down to the final possession! We’ll recap them all below, but first let’s see how the model fared…
Model Performance
Given the upsets and the phenomenal set of games we had this week, it was somewhat surprising that the model got 78.1% of the winners correct this week. Our average Area performance has been 74%, historically.
Looking at our season-to-date performance, the model has picked 81.1% of the correct winners in all games involving 6A teams, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, we’re correctly picking 84.7% of the winners.
With that covered, let’s get into the truly remarkable week that was…
Division 1 Area Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Division 1 Bracket: Notable Area Round Results
Region 1:
Midland Legacy 57-55 (OT) over Trinity, was +7, 68% to win - As expected, we got a shootout in this one and it was back and forth all game. Trinity finally got a stop with the score tied at 42-42 in 4th. Trinity would drive to the 25 for a game-winning FG attempt, but wasn’t able to convert, sending the game to overtime. Both teams scored on their opening possession of OT. Trinity then scored a TD to open the 2nd OT period, but failed to convert the 2pt try. Legacy then scored to tie the game at 55 and was able to convert the required 2pt try to win it 57-55.
Allen 36-33 (OT) over Martin, was +7, 68% to win - Martin got up 17-7 in the second quarter and led 17-10 at half. Allen tied it at 17 in 3rd quarter and the two teams would go back and forth from there. Martin had a chance to win it at the end of regulation with the score tied at 30, but their 44yd FG attempt was no good. In their first OT possession Martin was held to a FG, opening the door for Allen to win it with a TD. A Micah Ellis TD run gave Allen the dramatic walk-off victory.
Region 2:
The Woodlands 28-27 over Klein Collins, was -6, 34% to win - Before the game, there was some question as to whether or not Mabry Mettauer and Quanell Farrakhan would be able to go for The Woodlands, but they both played the whole game and played pivotal roles in the Highlander W. The game was tight throughout, with Collins jumping out ahead a few times, only for The Woodlands to continue answering. Tucker Parks gave Collins a late 27-20 lead, but The Woodlands was able to answer yet again with a TD with about a minute to go. They decided to go for 2 and the lead and converted to go up 28-27. Collins would drive into FG range for a game-winning FG attempt, but the Highlanders blocked it at the buzzer to grab the win!
Rockwall 46-43 over Waxahachie, was +5, 63% to win - We featured this game last week not only because it was a close model pick, but also because of the great contrast in styles between the teams. We wondered how Rockwall’s offense-heavy team would fare against ‘Hachie’s defensive squad. In this one, offensive football won the day, with neither team able to stop the other. Aston Emery went full-on “Beast Mode” for Rockwall, racking up 31 carries for 270 yards a 4TDs…get that man some Skittles! Rockwall took a 46-43 lead with about a minute left and had to defend a Hail Mary as time expired to preserve the win.
Westfield 55-41 over Cain, was +13, 80% to win - Ho-hum, the model nailed it right? Well, yes and no. Cain actually went up 34-13 in 2nd quarter in this one, on the verge of running away with it, but from that point forward Westfield would outscore Cain 41-7 over the final 2.5 quarters!
Region 3:
Cy-Fair 28-21 (OT) over Katy was -7, 32% to win - As if Region 1 and 2 didn’t give us several years worth of epics, Region 3 gave us two more incredible games. Cy-Fair and Katy played an absolute thriller at the Berry Center, with both defenses playing well above any pre-game expectations and with Trey Owens and his receivers executing an an extremely high level. Katy missed several opportunities to take and extend leads in this game, allowing Cy-Fair one last drive to go the length of the field and tie the game in regulation, down 21-14. Again, Owens and his receivers would make play after play, all of them tightly contested, to tie the game with under a minute left, sending it to OT. The Bobcats scored on their opening possession and then held Katy one last time to capture the dramatic win in front of a packed house.
Lamar 31-28 over Ridge Point, was -1, 48% - This was our favorite game on the board for this week and it certainly delivered. The teams played a fairly even first half, with Ridge Point rallying to take a 21-17 lead into the break. Lamar got a pick and a huge return on Ridge Point’s first possession of the second half, which they converted into a TD to take the lead; that was one of a few critical turnovers by Ridge Point that kept Lamar in the game. The teams would trade scores and stops from there into the 4th quarter when Lamar took a 31-28 lead. Ridge Point then drove all the way to the Lamar 5 yard line with a chance to win or tie in the dying seconds, but Lamar forced a fumble on a completed pass to the flat and recovered it to end the game. What a finish and what a win.
Region 4:
Lake Travis 48-21 over SA Johnson, was +17, 86% to win - Lake Travis jumped all over the Johnson Jaguars, returning the opening kickoff for a TD and intercepting Ty Hawkins 6 times in the first half! I had to rewind the halftime recap on TexanLive a couple of times to make sure I heard that right. A 41-7 halftime lead after all of that put a game that could’ve been close out of reach after just 30 minutes. The Cavs roll on.
Laredo United 58-42 over San Benito, was -7, 33% to win - What a performance by QB Atzel Chavez and the Laredo United offense! The Longhorns came into the year with a very experienced offensive unit and that ultimately made the difference against a very good San Benito defense, earning a trip to the Alamodome to face Westlake.
Division 2 Area Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Division 2 Bracket: Notable Area Round Results
Region 1:
Southlake Carroll 49-17 over Wolfforth Frenship, was +17, 86% to win - With these two teams combining for 157 points in their first round victories, we wondered how long and how well Frenship would be able to hang with the Dragons, but this one was over pretty quickly. Carroll wasted no time establishing their dominance in this one, racing out to a 42-7 lead in the second quarter. The Dragons would cruise from there.
Highland Park 22-21 over McKinney, was -3, 42% to win - While most of our metrics aside from Elo were pointing to a decided advantage for McKinney, good ole Elo won out yet again. The Scots, as they have done several times this year, were able to rise to the level of their competition and keep themselves in the game. McKinney did take a led 21-6 at the half, but the Highland Park defense would lock down from there. In fact, the Scots held McKinney under 200 yards of offense in the game. After a couple of second-half TDs and repeated defensive stops, Highland Park was able to kick a walk-off FG to win 22-21!
Region 2:
Willis 42-21 over Tomball Memorial, was +11, 77% to win - While this game had the look of a potential shootout, the Willis defense made a statement in shutting out Tomball Memorial through the first half in building a 21-0 lead at the break. DJ Lagway continued his record-breaking season with 5 TD passes to Super Soph Jermaine Bishop Jr. The ‘Kats’ magical season continues on!
Tomball 25-24 (OT) over Oak Ridge, was -1, 47% to win - Well, last week we talked at-length about how there was nothing to separate these two teams no matter which metric we looked at, and wouldn’t ya know, they went to OT tied at 17! It was a tight game throughout with neither team going up by more than a score at any point. Oak Ridge got the ball first in OT and scored a TD and kicked the extra point. Tomball answered with a TD and decided to go for two and the win. They took a timeout before running what can only be described as a brilliantly designed, brilliantly executed two-point play which they converted for the win…incredible!
Region 3:
Houston Stratford 49-34 over George Ranch, was +2, 55% to win - In this battle of starkly contrasting offensive styles, George Ranch scored first, but Stratford took control after that, going up 28-13 at half. The game would never get closer than that 15-point margin, sending the Spartans into a battle with Summer Creek this week.
CE King 37-20 over Clear Falls, was +6, 65% to win - The model was definitely on to something after all. Falls played a great defensive first half to lead 13-7. Falls then took the opening kickoff of the second half and drove to score again, giving them a 20-7 lead. King responded with stops and consecutive TDs, and then forced a holding penalty on Clear Falls in their own endzone, which resulted in a safety to extend their lead to 23-20. After the free kick, King scored again to make it 30-20, putting the game out of reach.
Hightower 26-21 over Heights, was +24, 92% to win - Despite being a huge favorite, Hightower led just 12-0 at half and it was clear that Heights was up to the challenge. Heights got a score in the 3rd quarter to make it 12-7. Hightower would respond to get it back to a two score advantage in 4th quarter. That pattern would repeat a couple of times until Heights ran out of time to complete the comeback, adding a late score to make it 26-21.
Region 4:
Drip 38-34 over Judson, was +26, 94% to win - We very nearly had the upset of the decade, or perhaps longer. 4-win Judson led 21-17 at half on their home field and most probably figured that Dripping Springs would simply pull away and win comfortably. What happened instead was that Judson extended their lead to 34-17 late in the 3rd quarter! It wasn’t until then that Dripping Springs clicked into high gear and really got rolling. With a couple of scores and a couple of stops, Drip got it to within 3, at 34-31. On Judson’s next possession, the Rockets converted a gutsy 4th and 2 at their own 45 with just 5 mins left, but was forced to punt after their next set of downs. The punt was downed at the Dripping Springs 7 yard line. Jack Williams would then lead the Tigers on a 93 yard drive, capped by a Kyle Koch TD run with a minute left to complete the epic comeback to save their season!
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!