TNG 2023 Class 6A Bi-District Recap
See how the model performed and review the most interesting results of the first round..
The first round of the playoffs never disappoints! Despite the apparent lack of drama on paper, there are always upsets in store, and this year was no different. We can usually count on two to four 12+ point underdogs coming through with surprise victories in the first round and we got three of those this year, which we’ll cover below. In this newsletter, we’ll touch on model performance, then we’ll review each bracket’s results, followed by a recap of all of the model’s picks for Round 1. Be on the lookout for the podcast and the Area Round preview tomorrow.
Model Performance
The model correctly picked 85.9% of the Round 1 winners, which tied for a record-high model performance in our dataset dating back to 2008! The average model performance in Bi-District has been 79%.
Looking at the entire season to-date, the model has correctly picked 81.1% of the winners, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results before 9/15, the model has correctly identified 85.1% of the winners.
While the Bi-District round is always a great test with teams emerging from district play and facing opponents with fewer common opponents, The Area round and beyond really stresses the model due to the generally tighter variances between the teams. We’ll get to our Area preview in our next newsletter, but for now, lets look at what happened in the first round…
Division 1 Bi-District Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Division 1 Bracket: Notable First Round Results
Region 1:
Euless Trinity 63-35 over Timber Creek, was +1, 52% to win - This game looked like a toss-up following Trinity’s Week 11 loss to LD Bell, but the Trojans righted the ship and captured an impressive opening round win on their home field. Trinity will also host their second round game against an explosive Midland Legacy squad. The winner of that game will get the Allen vs Martin winner in Round 3.
Allen 18-17 over Lewisville, was -2, 45% to win - The model took an “L” here despite the game being just 3 points off of the projected outcome. Allen led this game 15-14 at half and the two teams would battle to a 3-3 draw in the second half to send Allen through. It was another impressive performance from Allen who now gets to face a Martin team they already defeated this year for a chance to move on to Round 3.
Region 2:
Waxahachie 20-19 over Waco Midway, was +12, 77% to win - Waco Midway came in hot, but I don’t think many would have expected them to nearly beat Waxahachie, especially given the lopsided nature of the other 11-6A vs 12-6A contests. Kudos to the Panthers for turning their season around. ‘Hachie’s defense will be put to the test against Rockwall this week.
Klein Cain 50-49 over Bridgeland, was -4, 40% to win - What a game and what a win for Klein Cain. The ‘Canes were slight underdogs coming in, and even got down 24-7 in this one, but their offense found another gear late in the second quarter and had tied it late in the 3rd quarter. Cain decided to go for 2 and the win in overtime and converted to win by 1. Cain will face Westfield this week.
Region 3:
Clear Springs 36-7 over Shadow Creek, was -6, 34% to win - We had a few double-digit upsets this week, but this result may have been the most surprising result in round 1. The Chargers dominated a really stout Shadow Creek squad that had only allowed 37 points in their previous 6 games combined. Clear Springs will take on North Shore in Round 2.
Ridge Point 49-44 over Tompkins, was +11, 77% to win - For the neutrals, we’d love a Tompkins-Ridge Point game every November! These two have played back-to-back classics in the playoffs. Ridge Point went up by 19 at the start of the 4th quarter, but Wyatt Young and the Falcons nearly completed an epic comeback. Ridge Point will face another playoff rematch next week when they face Lamar.
Pearland 16-14 over Dickinson, was -15, 18% to win - What a finish! Pearland and Dickinson needed 5 OTs, 4 of them scoreless, to decide this battle royale, but the Oilers came out on top by dramatically stopping the Gators’ final 2pt attempt just shy of the goal line to preserve the win on Dickinson’s home field. Pearland gets Atascocita at The Rig this week.
Region 4:
Lake Travis 13-10 over Vandegrift, was -14, 19% to win - Speaking of great finishes, Lake Travis got a last-second FG to win at Vandegrift, capping a defensive struggle that saw both teams have apparent TDs taken off the board. As good as Lake Travis’ D has been all year, I don’t think anyone expected them to be able to hold the Vipers to just 10 points and under 200 yards of offense. Lake Travis will now face SA Johnson in the next round and are now favored to reach a rematch with Westlake in Round 4.
Division 2 Bi-District Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Division 2 Bracket: Notable First Round Results
Region 1:
Wolfforth Frenship 87-58 over EP Eastwood, was +3, 59% to win - A score I had to read about to believe. We’ve spoken frequently of the firepower that Frenship brings on offense, but QB Hudson Hutcheson went nuts in this one; how about 27-27 for 519 yards and 9 TDs?! You’d think this was the highest scoring playoff game ever, but according to texashighschoolfootballhistory.com (an absolute treasure trove of a site!) it is merely T2 behind an 82-73 contest between Decatur and Levelland in 2016. Mercy.
Coppell 35-21 over Guyer, was +3, 57% to win - Coppell might just be the quietest outstanding contender left in the playoffs. The Cowboys knocked off Guyer setting up a 2nd round clash with Jesuit before a likely blockbuster matchup against Byron Nelson. Jr. QB Edward Griffin has been lighting up the scoreboard all season long.
Region 2:
Tomball Memorial 30-29 over Cy Springs, was +12, 78% to win - In their first playoff appearance in 20 years, Cy Springs nearly pulled off a great upset, but their game-winning FG attempt came up short, sending Tomball Memorial through to the next round. The Wildcats will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down DJ Lagway and the Willis Wildkats in Round 2.
Cedar Hill 62-0 over Pflugerville Weiss, was +5 63% - Pardon me? Well, we know some eyebrows may have been raised when we posted Cedar Hill as the favorite in this one, but we never saw this type of evisceration on the cards. Weiss was a good team, but Cedar Hill proved again that when they are on, this team is capable of doing some damage.
Tomball 32-6 over Cy Falls, was -8, 31% to win - It seems Tomball activated “playoff mode”. The Cougars came in as moderate underdogs here, but left no doubt as to who was the better team, or who was the better district for that matter. District 15-6A claimed all four victories against their 16-6A opponents in Round 1. Tomball faces Oak Ridge in Round 2.
Region 3:
Clear Creek 27-14 over Dawson, was -13, 20% to win - This was another shocker of an upset. Clear Creek had been playing well defensively all year, but this was one of their better offensive showings, especially considering how good Dawson’s defense had been. With this win, 23-6A grabbed 3 out of 4 against 24-6A. Clear Creek gets Summer Creek next.
Region 4:
RR McNeil 17-14 over Austin Bowie, was +8, 70% to win - McNeil got themselves in this position by playing great defense and they rode that identity to a win, claiming the only 25-6A triumph over 26-6A. The Mavs take on Steele in Round 2.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!
Great coverage.Pearland over Dickinson was biggest upset to me.