TNG 2023 Class 6A Regional Finals Preview
Take a look at our previews for each of the games of the round, view updated bracket odds for each team, and see the model's picks for every game of the fourth round of the 2023 playoffs
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out our Regional Semifinals Recap to review the action from last week.
In this post we’ll present the historical model performance for the Regional Finals, we’ll preview each of the 8 games this week, we’ll unveil the updated bracket odds for each team still alive in the playoffs, and we’ll show you the model’s picks for each of the games in the fourth round of the 2023 6A playoffs.
Historical Model Performance for the Regional Final Round
As you can see in the table below, the model performance typically dips from this point forward due to the tightening margins between the competing teams’ ratings. Having said that, the model has done really well in this round from 2015 forward, averaging slightly better than 7 of 8 correct picks for 8 years running. Which of the games this year provides the best chance of a model upset? Is there more than one favorite possibly on upset alert? Read on to find out…
Regional Finals Previews - Division 1
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D1 Region 1:
North Crowley +5, 62% to win vs Allen - Sat 12/2, 1pm, Dragon Stadium
Has the model finally caught up to North Crowley? After being a slight underdog last week against Prosper, the model does now favor them in their Region 1 D1 final against Allen. In an odd twist of fate, its Allen coming into this late round playoff game playing with house money, while North Crowley is the team coming in as the obvious favorite. Looking at all of the underlying data, North Crowley is outplaying their Elo rating, and their trending adjusted scoring metrics weighed against Allen’s point to a potential 2TD+ type of victory. While Allen has been playing really well lately, this North Crowley squad will be the best team they’ve seen since their season opener against DeSoto.
As much as North Crowley seems to be the clear favorite, Allen has been doing a great job lately of grinding out wins by making clutch plays in crucial moments. If Allen can keep this one close late, we like their chances at the upset.
D1 Region 2:
Duncanville +13, 79% to win vs Spring Westfield, Sat 12/2, 3pm, The Palace
Westfield nearly shocked the world last year in this round against Duncanville, playing them to a 28-21 final score in a game that they truly could’ve won. Will the rematch prove to be as good, or will Duncanville send a message this time around? Westfield has been on a tear lately. The Mustangs are scoring 38ppg above what an average team would be expected score against their same schedule over their last 5 games…that’s the highest adjusted offensive scoring rate of any of the remaining teams in either bracket. However, they are facing a Duncanville team capable of being just as explosive, who also brings an elite defensive front seven to the party.
We’ve said many times that there are only a handful of teams that can physically come close to matching up with Duncanville, and Westfield is one of those precious few. Westfield’s defense is going to have to play up to their potential and they’ll need to make plays in the passing game to stay in this one, but they are capable. We expect to see a focused effort from Duncanville and fully expect the champs to flex in this one.
D1 Region 3:
North Shore +17, 85% to win vs Atascocita, Sat 12/2, 2pm at Pasadena Memorial
North Shore came out last week against a good Cy-Fair squad and looked like the #1 team in the state. The Mustangs appear to be peaking just in time to face their district rival who they’ve just been battering in recent years, especially in the playoffs. North Shore has beaten Atascocita by an average of 53-25 in their last three playoff meetings and considering they just beat them 61-35 just a few weeks ago, things don’t look particularly great for Atascocita heading into this meeting.
However, Atascocita is coming off their best defensive performance of the season after stifling an incredibly talented Lamar squad. And since turning to Cardae Mack as their lead back, the Eagle offense has continued to produce at a very high level. If North Shore’s level drops and if Atascocita can create some turnovers, they have enough firepower to make this a game. As we mentioned above about Westfield against Duncanville, there are only a handful of teams that can match North Shore physically and Atascocita is certainly one of those, which puts them far ahead of most teams hoping to compete with the Mustangs.
D1 Region 4:
Austin Westlake +11, 76% vs Lake Travis, Sat 12/2, 2pm at The Pfield
Aside from a bigger venue, what more could you ask for? Westlake and Lake Travis will meet to decide the Region 4 champion 10 weeks after playing arguably the best game of the regular season, which Westlake won 20-14. The model is leaning heavier toward the Chaps this time around due to the fact that Lake Travis was beaten handily by Dripping Springs in Week 9. In the weeks since that loss, however, Lake Travis has actually matched Westlake’s adjusted scoring metrics over the same time period, suggesting that these two teams are playing equally well coming in.
Both teams, interestingly, will be starting different QBs than those that started in their regular season meeting. Rees Wise has fully taken over for Westlake, while Chaston Ditta more recently has taken over for Lake Travis, allowing Kadyn Leon to provide a threat on the outside. With both teams playing equally exceptional defense, the difference could again come down to special teams play, where Westlake still has a decided advantage. We think the model is too aggressive on this game and it wouldn’t surprise us at all if this turns out to be an absolute all-time classic.
Regional Semifinal Round Previews - Division 2
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D2 Region 1:
Byron Nelson +2, 55% to win vs Southlake Carroll, Sat 12/2, 7:30pm, Choctaw
In yet another rematch, we have another game that could be a thriller. Byron Nelson quite frankly dominated the last matchup between these two squads, giving them their first-ever win over the Dragons. Byron Nelson’s fierce defensive front was able to severely limit the Dragons’ running game and their uber-talented secondary was able to force an uncharacteristic multi-INT game out of Carroll’s normally hyper-efficient passing game. So, what gives? Why is the model projecting a closer game and why did we open by labeling this as a potential thriller?
In the four games each team has played since Week 10, all of the underlying performance metrics heavily favor Southlake Carroll. In fact, Carroll’s performances since the Byron Nelson loss rate as the best of any of the remaining playoff teams. Byron Nelson, on the other hand, has regressed quite a bit in their recent performances according to the numbers; so much so that when combined with Carroll’s advancement, even the slow-to-react Elo has picked up on it and has tightened the perceived gap between the teams. This will be a fascinating test case of the numbers vs the eye test. Based on what the matchups appeared to be in the first meeting, it’s honestly hard to see Carroll overturning what the Bobcats bring to the table, but maybe they really have improved that much with getting healthy and with a now fully-integrated Riley Wormley? If you can’t tell, we’re a little excited about this one.
D2 Region 2:
DeSoto +29, 96% to win vs Cedar Hill, Fri 12/1, 7pm at Kincaide Stadium
DeSoto and Cedar Hill will open this wonderful weekend of games on Friday night, under the lights at local Kincaide Stadium…you gotta love it. The Battle of the Beltline for a region championship is just too good. DeSoto looked every bit like the defending champs last week in their emphatic win over an undefeated Willis squad. This week they’ll face a familiar foe who is playing far, far better than when these two met in the regular season. Cedar Hill, in the five games since losing to DeSoto, has put up an impressive run of performances befitting of a state quarterfinalist, and they absolutely have the ability and the pedigree to make a game of this.
Unfortunately, Cedar Hill is running into a DeSoto team that has no apparent weakness who is playing exceptionally well. While Cedar Hill can claim to have held DeSoto to their lowest point total to date and while their offense is playing much better now that QB Anthony Edwards is back, DeSoto just appears too strong across the board for a potential upset. The model is likely way too aggressive with the projection here, and that’s just due to Cedar Hill’s five losses still weighing in, but we do strongly favor DeSoto to move on.
D2 Region 3:
Summer Creek +14, 81% to win vs FB Hightower, Sat 12/2, 2pm at CFFCU
Hightower pulled off a great win against CE King last week to prevent a sixth rematch this week, but they’ll now face a red-hot Summer Creek squad that easily defeated that same CE King squad just a few weeks ago. Hightower will present some very interesting matchup problems for Summer Creek, however, particularly when Summer Creek drops back to pass. The ‘Canes have a very fast defense that can overwhelm teams with their rush and they have good players in the secondary to capitalize on any mistakes. Hightower will hope to ride that defense similarly to how they were able to do against both Westfield early in the year and against King last week. Summer Creek, on the other hand, features one of the top three defenses in the state and they’ll present an enormous challenge for Hightower’s offense, even as skilled as they are.
The underlying numbers here do agree with the Elo call of a heavy lean toward Summer Creek, with all signs pointing toward a potentially decisive, program-defining victory for the increasingly impressive Bulldogs. It is worth noting, though, that Hightower holds one decided advantage over Summer Creek; they have twice done what Summer Creek is attempting to do for the first time…they won Region 3 in 2008 and 2011 on their way to two excruciating near-misses in state title games against Allen and Southlake Carroll. Can the ‘Canes tap into some of that history to grab an improbable victory? The title of this very blog might suggest that it’s possible…
D2 Region 4
Cibolo Steele +6, 64% to win vs Dripping Springs, Sat 12/2, 7pm at The Alamodome
Maybe as few a four or five weeks ago, this game might have been perceived as an easy call in favor of Dripping Springs, but Steele has actually appeared to have outplayed the Tigers down the stretch. The most notable example, of course, is comparing the two teams’ performances against Converse Judson, which occurred just three weeks apart. Steele beat the Rockets by 38 in Week 10, while Dripping Springs had to put together a nearly miraculous comeback to defeat Judson by just 4 two weeks ago. Drip fans could say, “hey wait a minute” and point back to the teams’ common games against Lake Travis, of course, and rightly claim an advantage there.
Thankfully, our Elo system and our underlying numbers sort through all of those whataboutisms and give us some quantifiable data to consider, however imperfect it may be. The recent opponent-adjusted performances of both squads do point to about the same 6-7 point advantage in Steele’s favor as our Elo system is seeing. Dripping Springs’ recent defensive struggles are the most concerning element, especially considering that Steele is a much better offensive team that either Jay or Judson. Even with all of that said, we do expect this to be a great game and we could definitely seem Drip winning it, despite what the numbers are suggesting.
Updated Bracket Odds
Here’s an updated look at the Round 2 survivors’ odds to advance from each round for each bracket, sorted by their odds to win it all. Remember, your team’s odds will change as you’re able to advance. They can change drastically if you defy the model and pull off an upset.
Now let’s take a look at what the model likes for this week’s games…