TNG 2023 Class 6A Regional Semifinals Recap
See how the model performed and review the action from the Regional Semifinals...
It would be nearly impossible to match last week’s volume of white-knuckle drama, but the third round still gave us some really good games, and perhaps more than anything, showcased why elite teams are who they are. As per usual, this recap newsletter will cover model performance, a recap of the games of the week, and a summary of all of the model’s picks and results at the bottom…for more detailed commentary on the week that was (and a look ahead to next week), give this week’s podcast a listen!
Model Performance
Well, we didn’t quite match last year’s 100% record in the Regional Semifinal round, but the model got 93.8% of the winners correct this week. The only one we missed on was the Prosper-North Crowley game. Our average Regional Semifinal performance has been 81%, historically.
Looking at our season-to-date performance, the model has picked 81.2% of the correct winners in all games involving 6A teams, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, we’re correctly picking 84.7% of the winners.
With that covered, let’s review each of the games played this Thanksgiving weekend…
Division 1 Regional Semifinal Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Region 1:
North Crowley 35-7 over Prosper, was -3, 41% to win - We mentioned that this would be North Crowley’s toughest test of the season, and they wasted no time at all establishing their superiority in this game. North Crowley was dominant on both sides of the ball right out of the gate and easily avenged their only loss of last year. Chris Jimmerson at QB, paired with their dynamic running game, makes the Panthers extremely tough to defend, even for an excellent defense like Prosper. Prosper finished another great season with an outright 5-6A district title and another deep playoff run. With this win, North Crowley announced that they were a real contender.
Allen 52-35 over Legacy, was +2, 55% to win - Midland Legacy jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Allen quickly got it back to 14-14. This was a great game throughout with both teams making big play after big play. It was 31-28 into the fourth quarter, but Allen was able to get key stops and were able to continue scoring to extend their lead to the final margin. We mentioned that Allen was the more balanced team going in and they had shown the better defense of the two teams and that ended up providing the difference in the end. It was a great season for Legacy and it could have continued another round if not for an extremely resilient Allen Eagle squad.
Region 2:
Duncanville 49-21 over The Woodlands, was +23, 92% to win - The Woodlands was able to get a couple of stops early, but not unlike last year’s game, it seemed only a matter of time before Duncanville got going. They did just that, and once they did there was little doubt how this one would go. The Woodlands just couldn’t get anything going on offense against the phenomenal Panther D, and Caden Durham and Keelon Russell eventually took over and led Duncanville to a comfortable victory.
Westfield 78-48 over Rockwall, was +5, 63% to win - This is another game, like North Crowley vs Prosper, where it didn’t take long for the superior team to establish themselves. Westfield opened the game with three or four consecutive defensive stops, including a pick-6, and were simply unstoppable on offense, racing out to a 36-7 first quarter lead that would be maintained throughout. Rockwall could not stop Westfield’s offense and it was 50-13 at halftime. Westfield has rounded in form just in time for their 4th round rematch with Duncanville.
Region 3:
North Shore 45-9 over Cy-Fair, was +25, 95% to win - This game went about as expected, with North Shore immediately grabbing control by returning the opening kickoff for a TD and being able to move the ball easily on offense. Cy-Fair did have several really nice drives deep into North Shore territory with Trey Owens and Owen Carter making some great plays, but the Mustang defense became very hard to break down in the low red zone, holding Cy-Fair to 0 points on three different trips inside the 10. The 21-0 lead North Shore established in the first quarter made the rest of the game a near-impossible task for Cy-Fair. This was perhaps North Shore’s best, most complete performance of the year.
Atascocita 34-14 over Houston Lamar, was +9, 73% to win - Atascocita ended up as comfortable victors in the end, and it was deserved based on the run of play. It was oddly 0-0 at halftime with neither team able to get a breakthrough against defenses that were playing really well. Atascocita came right out of halftime and hit a 90-yard bomb on the first play of the half and later added a 52 yard TD from Tory Blaylock to go up 14-0. Lamar would get within 7 late, at 21-14, but Atascocita scored with just over a minute left to put it out of reach. Atascocita’s defense showed up big in this game, stifling an explosive Lamar team with playmakers everywhere.
Region 4:
Lake Travis 34-7 over SA Brennan, was +17, 86% to win - Brennan got an early long TD run, but the Lake Travis defense only allowed 160 yards outside of that one play as the Cavs dominated this contest. Lake Travis controlled the game offensively with a ground attack that put up nearly 300 yards, earning a rematch with Westlake in the regional final. Brennan getting this far with such a young squad bodes well for them over the next couple of years.
Austin Westlake 59-14 over Laredo United, was +36, 98% to win - Westlake forced turnovers on the first three Laredo United possessions, turning those into 3 TDs halfway into the first quarter. Westlake would lead 35-0 after 1 and would cruise from there into their upcoming titanic clash with Lake Travis.
Division 2 Regional Semifinal Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Region 1:
Southlake Carroll, 45-14 over Highland Park, was +11, 77% to win - We’ve said it a few times over the last several weeks, but Southlake Carroll continues to prove that they’re one of the best teams in the state, and with this dominating win over Highland Park, they’ll get a chance to avenge their only loss of the season next week. Carroll raced out to a 28-0 2nd quarter lead and never looked back in this one. Riley Wormley and Davis Penn in the backfield with Carroll’s passing game make them extremely hard to defend.
Byron Nelson 52-45 over Coppell, was +4, 61% to win - We expected this to be a great game and it delivered. Byron Nelson scored first with a FG and Coppell answered. The teams would trade scores from there, and the game would stay within one score until the third quarter when Byron Nelson got up two scores. The Bobcats appeared to put the game away for good when they scored to go up 45-24 late in the fourth quarter, but Coppell would get two quick scores to bring it within a TD again before Byron Nelson answered yet again to go up 2 scores with just a couple of minutes left. Coppell would add yet another score to bring the game to the final margin.
Region 2:
DeSoto 65-31 over Willis, was +19, 88% to win - Coming into this one we wondered if Willis would be the type of team that could overcome being such large underdogs, and for a little while they were able to hang in there. It was 17-17 after a long DJ Lagway TD pass to Jalen Mickens, but all that seemed to do was provoke DeSoto to play at their very best. From there on the champs dominated. DJ Bailey and the DeSoto offense was unstoppable and the Eagle D clamped down and overwhelmed Willis’ offense with a relentless pass rush against the 5-wide offense of the Wildkats. With this performance, DeSoto left no doubt that they were the runaway favorites in this bracket.
Cedar Hill 28-7 over Tomball, was +6, 66% to win - The Longhorns were able to continue their outstanding run with suffocating defense, allowing them to open up a virtually insurmountable 22-0 lead at halftime. Tomball battled the entire time but couldn’t generate enough to mount a serious challenge in the end. With the win, Cedar Hill earns a rematch of the Battle of the Beltline in the regional final, continuing their truly incredible season.
Region 3:
Summer Creek 52-15 over Stratford, was +30, 96% to win - Early on Stratford looked like they might present problems for Summer Creek, with Aaron DeLeon leading two touchdown drives to get them within 14-12, but Summer Creek would roll from there. The Bulldogs built a 38-12 lead at halftime and coasted from there. The vaunted Summer Creek D racked up 5 interceptions.
Hightower 31-28 over CE King, was+2, 56% to win - The best game of the week was the first game of the week, kicking off at 10am on Black Friday. Hightower jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, but CE King responded to tie it up at halftime. The story of the game was the Hightower defense who forced three turnovers and stopped CE King on three other 4th down attempts, constantly providing their offense with short fields which ultimately made the difference in the game. Hightower gets revenge for last year’s loss in the same round to advance to face Summer Creek.
Region 4:
Steele 48-27 over SA Harlan, was +20, 89% to win - Steele got out to a quick start in this one before Harlan got back within a TD at 20-13. The Knights were able to extend their lead to 34-13, before Harlan scored again and were able to keep them at arms length from there on while continuing to hit big plays to knock off the undefeated Hawks. With the win, Steele advances to the 4th round for the first time since 2020.
Dripping Springs 50-27 over SA Jay, was +23, 92% to win - Dripping Springs needed to get out to a good start to erase memories of last week, but Jay proved to be up for the challenge early. The two teams traded scores throughout the first half and it was tied at 21 at one point. Dripping Springs would pull away in the second half though, finally establishing their superiority and ultimately winning by the model’s expected margin to setup a great regional final with Cibolo Steele.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!