TNG 2023 Class 6A State Semifinals Recap
See how the model performed and review the action from the Semifinals...
In this newsletter we’ll take a look back at the action from the State Semifinals to set the stage for the 2023 State Championship games coming up this weekend. For a much more detailed discussion of everything presented here, and for a sneak peak at the picks for the upcoming weekend, give this week’s podcast a listen!
Model Performance
The model correctly picked all four of the winners this week, atoning for the dismal one out of four performance in last year’s semifinal round. The average model performance in the semis has been around 64% over the last 15 seasons, so if we combine this year’s 4/4 with last year’s 1/4, we’re pretty much on track.
Looking at our season-to-date performance, the model has picked 81.3% of the correct winners in all games involving 6A teams, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, we’re correctly picking 84.9% of the winners.
With that covered, let’s review each of the games played this weekend…
Division 1 Semifinals Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Duncanville 52-10 over North Crowley, was +15, 82% to win
Sat 12/9, 3pm Mesquite Memorial Stadium
We thought this was the safest pick among the four games this weekend, but we did not expect Duncanville to win this convincingly. North Crowley came into this game undefeated, outscoring teams 55-14(!), and had enough weapons to potentially cause Duncanville some problems. Even if we adjust North Crowley’s performances for their opponents, they still ranked as the 6th most dominant team in the state. Duncanville simply blew them away. This result is more a reflection of just how well Duncanville is playing right now rather than any kind of indictment on North Crowley. Coach Gates’ team had a great season and were a formidable opponent.
This was a close game for about a quarter and a half as both defenses were doing great work, but once Duncanville got things in gear, they were just too much to handle in every phase. Duncanville built a 24-0 halftime lead and by that point there seemed no chance for North Crowley to get back in it, especially since North Crowley’s high-powered offense mustered less than 100 total yards in the first half. Duncanville would add four more second half TDs to back up last week’s incredible effort against Westfield with an even more impressive showing this week. Since the DeSoto loss, this Duncanville squad has been playing on a whole other level, and we see that in the data. In fact, the Panthers are putting up adjusted-scoring numbers in this playoff run that rival some of the best teams in the last decade-plus. Simply put, this may well be the best any Duncanville team has been playing entering their appearance at AT&T.
North Shore 23-14 over Westlake, was +13, 79% to win
Sat 12/9, 3pm at The Pfield
We thought this might be a low-scoring defensive battle, and that’s exactly what we got in yet another awesome game between these two historic programs. The North wind certainly made its presence felt throughout the game, greatly affecting what each team even attempted to do on offense for two out of the four quarters. With how well both defenses played, though, it may not have mattered if there was no wind at all. Even when each team had the wind at their back, it’s not as if guys were suddenly getting open downfield or either team was having more success getting the opposing front seven blocked. This was just an outstanding defensive football game.
A wild first quarter actually ended with Westlake on top. The Chaps took a 7-0 lead with a Rees Wise TD run on a possession that started at the North Shore 17 after tackling the Mustangs’ punter following a bad snap. That actually followed a play where North Shore clearly fumbled at their own 30 and it was called down. Westlake locked in and forced the punt which actually gained them 13 yards in field position! Earlier in the quarter, North Shore ran a successful fake punt from their own 10 yard line when the snap clearly came after the play clock expired, but Westlake forced a punt on the next set of downs anyway, which they blocked. Westlake showed incredible toughness and resilience in the opening quarter that set the tone for the rest of the game, proving the old adage that the response to adversity can be more impactful than what caused it in the first place.
North Shore responded in the second quarter and had their best offensive period of the game, putting together back to back TD drives to take a 14-7 lead late in the half. They actually had an opportunity to go up by two scores before the break, but Westlake’s defense again locked down and forced a FG attempt which they blocked to go into the half with great momentum.
To open the second half, Westlake then got a huge return from Jack Kayser, followed by a long TD run from Kayser on their first play of the second half to tie the game at 14. North Shore would answer with their best into-the-wind drive of the game which featured a Houdini-like escape from Kaleb Bailey to convert a critical 4th and 5. Westlake held again and forced another FG, which North Shore converted into the stiff breeze which ended up being the game-winner. From that point forward the two defenses allowed nothing at all. Both offenses would have opportunities to add to their tally, with North Shore having several possessions starting in Westlake territory only for the Chaps D to shut them down every single time. The Mustang D was equally up to the task, displaying their championship quality, and caused two 4th quarter interceptions; one caught in the end zone as time expired to close it out. What a game and what a showcase of two outstanding defenses and two incredible programs.
Division 2 Semifinals Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
DeSoto 45-38 over SLC, was +14, 81% to win
Sat 12/9, 2pm at Allen Eagle Stadium
In contrast to the great defensive battle between North Shore and Westlake, this one was an equally great game featuring two explosive offenses and two teams playing their best football of the season. In our preview last week, we talked about how well Carroll was playing heading into this game and how the underlying numbers suggested that Carroll could possibly hang with the Eagles, and it turned out that some of those numbers were telling. We also got to see just how hard it’s going to be for anyone to beat this DeSoto squad.
Carroll forced two DeSoto turnovers in the first half and got Riley Wormley loose on a long TD, creating tons of momentum in several key moments throughout the first half, but DeSoto would answer every single time with either a TD of their own, or the Eagle defense would force field goals instead of allowing TDs. Carroll ended the first half with a long TD pass to Clayton Wayland to get within a point at 21-20, and that ended up being a precursor to the incredible fireworks display the two teams would unleash in the second half.
Carroll got the ball first in the third quarter and Riley Wormley broke another explosive run. The DeSoto defense stiffened again, forcing a third FG from Kyle Lemmerman to give Carroll a 23-21 lead. DeSoto would answer with their ground game, punching in a TD to make it 28-23. Carroll answered with a 75 yard TD from Davis Penn and converted the 2-pt try to make it 31-28. Then DeSoto immediately hit a 40-yd TD pass to go up 35-31. In all, the teams combined for 25 points in the first 4 minutes of the second half! Carroll was on the verge of recapturing the lead, but the DeSoto defense mounted a goal-line stand to turn Carroll away. Carroll then forced another DeSoto turnover only to have their next FG attempt blocked. The teams would trade defensive stops until, finally, DeSoto broke the deadlock with a TD reception from Tony Pride to make it a 42-31 DeSoto lead with seven minutes left. Carroll would get another late TD to pull within a score, but DeSoto recovered the onside kick and was able to run out the clock from there.
Despite playing really well and forcing four turnovers against a DeSoto team that just doesn’t ever turn the ball over, even an outstanding Carroll squad was unable to knock off the defending champs. DeSoto’s ability to run the ball when needed and their defense’s ability to get key stops following huge momentum shifts ultimately saw them through on a day where a lesser team would’ve been beaten. The Dragons can hold their heads high after this one and they can certainly wonder “what if” on those few opportunities that got away from them, but the champs proved their mettle and look primed to go back-to-back.
Summer Creek 38-14 over Steele, was +5, 64% to win
Sat 12/9, 5pm at McLane Stadium
In the final game of the week, we were expecting an intriguing matchup between teams with tons of firepower, and Elo had this one as the most evenly-matched game of the round. We also did mention in last week’s preview, however, that the trending data was pointing toward a much larger potential advantage for Summer Creek, despite their miraculous escape against Hightower. This game was another case where the trending data was, in fact, on to something.
It only took a few possessions to get a sense for where this game could go. Summer Creek’s defense forced a quick three-and-out on Steele’s first possession and followed that with a solid drive, punctuated by a well-executed screen pass to Lloyd Avant to open the scoring. Steele was able to move the ball out to midfield on their next possession, but was again held to a punt. The Knights would pin Summer Creek on their own 4 yard line with the punt, but the Bulldogs would simply march 96 yards to go up 14-0. Steele would then put together another promising drive only to be stopped on a 4th down deep in Summer Creek territory. Lloyd Avant would strike again with a 53 yard TD run to make it 21-0 and that was essentially, that. Steele would get a TD and would get an INT with a chance to get within a score, but SC’s defense forced another turnover on downs and added a FG to make it 24-7 at the break. The Bulldogs would stretch it out to 38-7 before Steele could score again, ultimately booking their trip to Arlington.
While Summer Creek may have been fortunate to survive a strong Hightower team last week, they looked every bit like a State Finalist in this win over an impressive Steele squad. Summer Creek was just too strong in every phase and were fully deserving of the final score. It was a historic victory not only for Summer Creek, but for all of Humble ISD as the Bulldogs are the first team in the district to ever qualify for a State Championship appearance…how about that for bragging rights?!