TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 1 Preview
Everything you need to prepare you for the opening week of the season
After eight long months of waiting, it’s officially time to kickoff the 2023 Texas high school football season! In Class 6A, we have 166 games to feast on this week and we’re here to get you ready for it in this newsletter, debuting the new format for our second season of coverage here at TNG. In this newsletter you’ll find our Top 10 Games of the Week - including a breakdown of our four featured games, the model’s Closest Calls, a tour around the state of other games/storylines to watch, and we’ll close with a full listing of all of our model’s picks for the week. If you’re subscribed (it’s free and fast…just click the button below), you’ll get an email like this each week previewing the week ahead. After all of the final scores come in each week, we’ll follow up with a Recap email summing up the events of the week gone by. We’re hopeful that this new, more streamlined approach will make it easier for y’all to find information and we hope it will provide you with a better overall experience.
Before we get into the details of Week 1 ahead, we wanted to take a step back for a second and remind y’all, and remind ourselves, why we do this.
The main purpose behind why we started the site and why we do all of the research to produce the content we put out each week is to attempt to provide the most objective analysis and characterization of the 6A landscape in Texas. All rating and ranking systems are flawed, including ours, but we saw an opportunity to provide a fresh way to look at how teams across the state stack up against each other based on their actual performance and results. We’ve chosen a proven rating system, Elo, to be the basis for our coverage, and we’ve tailored it and tested it to work for 6A football in Texas. We’ve got some room to improve, certainly, but we were pretty happy with how things went last year and are excited to move forward.
It’s important to note that our projections aren’t meant as absolutes, nor are they pretending to be all-knowing. When a team is featured as having 80% likelihood to win, that means that our model has historical evidence of teams in that relative position getting beat 20% of the time! In other words, teams like that should lose from time to time, otherwise we have an inaccurate model. If every team that was favored won, why would anyone show up at the games? Why play them? We don’t do the computer modeling for anything other than trying to capture where each team stands relative to each other based on their performance to date. The real joy is in seeing what actually happens when two teams battle it out between the lines.
We hope that our coverage helps to highlight teams that are performing better than folks might otherwise realize and we also hope to identify those teams that may be getting overlooked completely. We also hope that our coverage helps expand appreciation for programs and coaches across the state as well. There are tons of great things happening out there, more than you may realize, and we’re trying to highlight that in an objective, data-driven way.
For teams at the bottom of our ratings or projections, when you see that there’s a low percentage likelihood that the computer is assigning to your chances to win a game or grab a playoff spot, it certainly isn’t meant as a slight to you personally…it’s just a product of where the data says you’re at in that moment. The chances are never zero, which means someone before you has done it! As you win games against teams rated ahead of you, Elo will take care of you and will raise your profile accordingly. The best stories are those that involve teams going from 0-10 and 1-9 to being perennial playoff contenders…your program could be next.
TNG Preseason Coverage Review
In case you missed any of our preseason coverage, you can find all of our written content here: 2023 TNG Season Preview. We also released two season preview podcasts: one covering our Top 25 in detail, and another covering every district in the state, complete with playoff picks and bracket projections. This season, you can find our Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and we’ll also be uploading each episode (audio only for now) on YouTube. Please subscribe, comment, and ‘like’ the Pod to help elevate it in the search engines of each platform.
And for our Houston area folks, we were honored to appear on Coach James Kowalewski and Coach Michael Obi’s HTownPickem show on YouTube this summer. We covered districts 13 through 24 in a fair amount of depth, across nearly 8 hours of conversation.
Hey, if you go through all of that, it will probably be Thursday before you know it!
With that, let’s look ahead to Week 1…
Historical Model Performance for Week 1
As good as our model can be, let’s be honest, it struggles in the early going. Historically, our model correctly picks about 77% of all winners in a given season, but in Week 1 it’s only shooting about 63%. It makes sense because, even with our offseason adjustments, we don’t have any data that tells how each team is going to perform with any degree of certainty until they actually get some games under their belt. Our best Week 1 performance in the dataset was in 2011 when the model hit on 69% of the winners and our worst Week 1 was in 2017 when the model only got 57% of the winners correct. As we look at the projections below, keep those numbers in mind.
Top Games of the Week
Another new feature we’re unveiling this year is our GameScore metric. We’ve been working to come up with a way to quantify the best games on the schedule and GameScore attempts to do that by taking into account the Elo ratings of the two teams, combined with the projected margin of victory to rate each game on a scale of roughly 0-100. Think of it as a rating of the competitive quality of each game. You can see the GameScore on the far right of the tables below as well as the percentile rank of that game score. You’ll see that the top-rated game of the week, unsurprisingly, is the North Shore vs The Woodlands contest which generates a GameScore of 79.3, which ranks in the 99th percentile of all games on the schedule this year. We’ve got one later in the season that’s generating a 93.6 as of right now; the highest-rated regular season game in our 15-yr database. We’ll give you one guess as to which that might be.
Let’s take a look at the Top 10 games of Week 1 in the next table and then we’ll cover our four featured games (6A vs 6A) below the table.
Featured Games of the Week
#2 North Shore vs #13 The Woodlands (NS 89% to win, 20 pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Woodforest Bank Stadium
This is quite easily the marquee matchup of the week and one of the best in the state on the entire 2023 schedule. Our very own, Jeremy McGrail, will have the call on ConroeISD’s YouTube channel! Last year, the Mustangs jumped all over the Highlanders from the opening kick and coasted to a comfortable 49-21 victory. These two come into 2023 featuring two of our Top 3 offensive attacks in the state with North Shore at #1 and The Woodlands featuring the #3 offense in Texas. The key matchup in this one may well be the outstanding offensive line of The Woodlands against the rebuilt North Shore front four. The Woodlands will have to win that battle by quite a margin to stay in this one, given that the Highlander defense may find it even tougher against the North Shore offense than they did last year. If Kaleb Bailey is fully recovered from his knee injury, the potential firepower of this North Shore offense is frightening…like, 2018/2019 North Shore kind of frightening.
#20 Arlington Martin vs #14 Lake Travis (LT 65% to win, 6pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Cavalier Stadium
These two played a highly entertaining game last year which ended with a 39-31 Martin victory. Whereas Lake Travis came into that road contest with a good bit of uncertainty due to their QB situation, Martin enters this year’s edition on the road with a fair amount of uncertainty after losing long-time head coach Bob Wager. Both teams return comparable levels of production, so it’s fair to expect another close one. However, expect Lake Travis to come out looking to make a statement after an uncharacteristic 7-5 campaign in 2022.
#4 Austin Westlake vs #18 Ridge Point (WL 81% to win, 14pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Mercer Stadium
After falling to North Shore in last year’s D1 Semifinal, Westlake will be looking to begin a new long-term winning streak on their return trip to the Greater Houston area, but a very dangerous Ridge Point squad awaits. Last year in Austin, these two played a fairly even first half before Westlake blew it open in the third quarter. In that one, Ridge Point was struggling to find a rhythm on offense due to a fluid QB situation. This year, the Panthers have an established stud at QB in Austin Carlisle and a trio of D1 receivers which should test a rebuilt Westlake defense. The Chaps are #4 in our rankings for a reason, however, and with Jack Kayser back on offense they’ll have plenty of firepower of their own, also facing a rebuilding defense on the other side. This could be a great one.
#5 Austin Vandegrift vs #24 Dripping Springs (Vandy 87% to win, 18pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Tiger Stadium
There are times, especially in Week 1, when we look at the computer projections and go, “Huh?!” This is the primary example of 2023. While we do believe Vandegrift could be even better than last year, it’s hard to look back at the two instant classics these great programs played against one another last year and think that they’re suddenly three scores apart. It may very well be the case that we’ve over-corrected for the loss of Austin Novosad, and Dripping Springs could be quite underrated, especially if Jack Williams is as good as it appears he might be. In fact, the added threat of a dangerous runner taking every snap could make defending the Drip offense a different challenge entirely. We’re high on both of these programs and wouldn’t be surprised in the least if this season opener is, again, just the first of two meetings in the season. We imagine that the Drip faithful might have been counting the minutes until this one kicks off, considering the brutal nature of how the State Quarterfinal ended.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week there are some good ones between some high-profile teams. Notice the top four games below registering GameScores in the Top 10% of all games this season!
Quick Hits: Other Games to Watch Around the State
Euless Trinity vs Prosper - Prosper 89% to win, 20pt fav - how will Trinity look in year two under Aaron Lineweaver? How much has Prosper fallen off, if any, with the coaching change and tons of rebuilding?
DeSoto at Allen - DeSoto 93% to win, 25pt fav - How do the champs look on the road in a tough environment and how does Allen compete after a massive down year for them…who will send the strongest signal from this one?
McKinney vs Longview - Longview 69% to win, 8pt fav - many are high on McKinney following a breakout season, but Longview is one of the best 5A squads. A win for McKinney here would turn some heads.
Duncanville vs South Oak Cliff - DV 95% to win, 27pt fav - how do the two neighboring state champs look against each other? Last year was a slugfest, displaying each team’s competitiveness and desire…expect that again, perhaps with an added level of pride given what both accomplished.
Weiss vs Round Rock - RR 83% to win, 15pt fav - Two teams with high ceilings and high hopes. Our computer hit Weiss hard due to their graduated talent...perhaps too hard? A win for the Wolves would spark a swift correction in the numbers.
Cedar Hill vs Rockwall - Rockwall 83% to win, 15pt fav - Cedar Hill has a good amount of experience back and so does Rockwall. Can the Longhorns get back on the road toward the playoffs? Both teams can make a statement here.
Cinco Ranch vs College Park - Cinco 65% to win, 6pt fav - Friend of TNG, James Kowalewski will be on the call here for TexanLive! Both teams appear to be on the fringes of playoff contention in two highly-competitive districts. A great matchup of two teams with many question marks surrounding them…a new staff leading College Park and tons of new faces on the field for Cinco. Expect a great one.
Atascocita vs Dickinson - Atascocita 87% to win, 18pt fav - another case of two excellent teams opening the season with a high chance to see each other again in the playoffs. Last we saw Dickinson, they gave North Shore a heck of a scare with John Solomon running things at QB…he’s back to lead Gators. Atascocita begins their brutal non-district slate with an offense that could be Top 5 in the state.
Katy vs Clear Springs - Katy 88% to win, 19pt fav - Katy enters 2023 with more unknowns than any season in recent memory. Springs is a highly talented, accomplished program with enough weapons to beat Katy any given year…is this their best chance yet? We’ll learn a ton about both teams next Saturday night.
Steele vs Brennan - Steele 88% to win, 19pt fav - though the computer already is giving Steele the huge tip of the cap, Brennan will be motivated to show that they’re still a force. These two played an absolutely epic opener in the Alamodome last year. This is a statement game for both programs.
Converse Judson vs SA Johnson - Judson 58% to win, 3pt fav - speaking of epic openers in the Alamodome last year…Judson and Johnson, on the strength of two outstanding Jr. QBs are set for a great duel yet again. Can Ty Hawkins and Elijah Favela build on incredible Sophomore seasons? Can Judson and Coach Soto continue their rise?
Austin Bowie vs Cedar Park Vista Ridge - Bowie 76% to win, 11pt fav - this one is interesting because both teams will affect their district races, potentially altering the D1/D2 status of the top teams in their districts. Bowie is completely rebuilding and can send a strong signal that they’re still unquestionably in the top 4 in 26-6A while Vista Ridge could potentially signal continued chaos in 25-6A based on how they look here.
Reminder: TNG Pick ‘Em
If you missed our Pick ‘Em contest entry, or if you haven’t yet put in your picks, get on over to our Week 1 Pick ‘Em page and jump in! Test your wits against us and against our model to see how you stack up.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all 166 games this week! There are going to be plenty of upsets and we can’t wait to get the first look at each of the squads going to battle this fall. Have a great time at the games…hydrate well and enjoy it. Nothing beats Texas high school football, even if it is being played on the surface of the sun this week.
Thanks for the Week 1 preview and clear explanation of the model works.