TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 1 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
Week 1 is in the books. Here, we debut our new weekly format, recapping the action of the opening weekend of the 2023 season. We hope you enjoy it. Let us know in the comments, or via email, if you like this new setup. Our Week 2 Preview article will follow in another email.
Model Performance
Well…that was unexpected! This week, the model set a new opening week record, correctly picking 77.1% of the 166 Week 1 winners. The previous record was 69% in 2011 and the model typically only gets 63% right in Week 1.
It’s a blistering and highly encouraging start to the season after an offseason of hard work on our preseason ratings process. We had some big misses, and we’ll get to those below, but, on the whole, we really couldn’t be happier with the start.
Review of Top 10 Games of Week 1
The model did well overall, and its performance didn’t drop in the best games of the week either, going 8-2 in the top 10 games rated by our new GameScore metric. The model was 4-0 in our featured games, coming scarily close to the projected margins.
Week 1 Featured Games Review
North Shore 38, The Woodlands 17 (NS favored by 20, 89% to win)
North Shore jumped out early with a quick deep strike followed by a short TD pass to go up 7-0 on their first drive. In his first return to action, Kaleb Bailey looked very comfortable, even if maybe a touch rusty. The Woodlands had some chances early, when Mettauer had some time in the pocket, that could’ve sparked some momentum but it wasn’t their night. At just 21-7, there was a sense of inevitability in the outcome, especially with how the North Shore defense was playing. We wanted to see how the retooled defensive line of North Shore would hold up against the great O-line of The Woodlands and they performed really well, in tandem with the rest of the Mustang defense. The Woodlands’ own rebuilt defense held up pretty well, considering they were facing perhaps the most explosive offense in the state.
Lake Travis 13, Arlington Martin 6 (LT favored by 6, 65% to win)
What an extremely physical game! Both defenses played incredibly well against what we believe will prove to be two very good offenses, which should bode well for both squads going forward. Kadyn Leon had two spectacular TD runs called back and was on his way to another one when he took an absolutely brutal blindside hit going through the hole that left him face down on the turf. He came back and played really well after that, connecting on the winning score, late, after Lake Travis forced a fumble on the kickoff immediately after tying it up and getting the extra point blocked. Lake Travis showed tons of grit and toughness to pull this one out.
Austin Westlake 31, Ridge Point 21 (WL favored by 14, 81% to win)
If you checked your Football Friday app like we did and saw Westlake up 28-0 in the 3rd, you probably thought, “Well, there goes Westlake again.” You wouldn’t have been entirely wrong. Westlake’s defense played great to hold a high-powered Ridge Point offense scoreless for 30 minutes plus and, of course, the Chaps special teams led to one, nearly two TDs. From 28-0, however, Ridge Point forced four straight three-and-outs in the 3rd and 4th quarters, scoring three touchdowns of their own in-between, and had forced a 5th three-and-out when a taunting penalty gave Westlake new life, which was followed by a hold on a deep ball, which led to a 59 yard FG (!!!) by Spencer Barnett. Imagine the confidence you have to have in your kicker to even attempt a FG from midfield, in that moment, considering the game flow. Incredible. Both teams can take positives from this one, but credit to Westlake for doing Westlake things.
Austin Vandegrift 27, Dripping Springs 7 (Vandy favored by 18, 87% to win)
Vandegrift wasted no time at all unveiling the Adams brothers. Deuce threw a picture perfect bomb to his brother Eli on the opening series and Vandegrift would never look back. The Viper defense was its usually tough, stingy self and held Dripping Springs scoreless through the first half, punctuating the effort with a pick-6 to put it out of reach at 27-0 at the break. Dripping Springs’ new QB, Jack Williams, appeared to go out injured after the Tigers’ first or second series and did not return. He’d shown flashes of his ability before going out and it’s natural to wonder how things might have gone if he’d stayed in, but Vandegrift looked every bit the part of a Top 5 team in the state and would’ve likely gotten the job done either way. Very much to their credit, despite the early adversity and the scoreline, Drip hung tough through the second half and will have plenty to build on going forward.
Biggest Upsets of the Week
It wasn’t all ideal, as the model had some rather large misses, as we expect to be the case each week. We know there will be upsets, but it’s always fascinating to see which ones materialize. We’d just as soon refer to these as the “most impressive underdog performances”.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
McKinney over Longview 23-21 - hugely impressive showing by the Lions, gutting out a win over an impressive Longview squad. This won’t be the last time we hear from these guys
Katy Seven Lakes over Memorial 35-28 (OT) - after an uncharacteristic year, Seven Lakes gets an impressive victory over the Mustangs to launch their ‘23 season with eye-opening Soph QB Shaan Patel.
Vista Ridge over Austin Bowie 21-14 - The Rangers notch a win in a defensive showdown against a perennial playoff squad on the road; could this signal a playoff berth of their own, potentially sending Vandegrift to D1?
Prosper over Euless Trinity 42-41 - Trinity staged a huge comeback after being down 28-7 at half. Good showing for both squads although both will want more of their D.
Desoto 39-7 over Allen - The champs open the season in resounding fashion on the road. This one says more about Desoto’s quality than about Allen’s shortcomings, as we expect them to bounce back quickly.
Plano East 48-14 over Rowlett - ok Panthers, we see you! Drew Devillier is legit folks. The Panthers may be, too.
Duncanville 34-13 over South Oak Cliff - this result says more than you might think. If the Panthers’ offense is going to do that then good luck everyone else…good luck.
Pflugerville Weiss 37-7 over Round Rock - Round Rock doesn’t get beat like that very often, especially not with the kind of team they have this year. We clearly underrated Weiss pretty dramatically and we expect they’ll back up this result with another impressive season.
Conroe 42-7 over Paetow - This one was a head-scratcher to say the least. Good on the Tigers for the performance they put together, but this result, along with Seven Lakes and Cinco Ranch notching wins over quality teams may put the Panthers’ playoff hopes in jeopardy unless they can bounce back quickly.
Bridgeland over Cy-Fair 31-30 - Great win for Lonnie Madison in his Bridgeland debut over a very talented Cy-Fair squad. The Bobcats are too good to suffer too long from this one…Bridgeland just may be better than expected.
Cinco Ranch over College Park 49-42 - This was an impressive result for the Cougars, who’ve signaled that they are going to be firmly in the 19-6A playoff picture. Conner Dunphy was incredible in this one and College Park will have a say in the 13-6A race.
Summer Creek over Klein Cain 28-21 - Hard-fought win for the Bulldogs over a Cain squad that beat them out of the gate last season. Coach Harrison’s boys start the year off right and Cain goes forward knowing they can hang with one of the best in the state.
Pearland 45-41 over Clear Falls - The Oilers win a shootout and don’t appear to have any issue scoring points with a new QB. If the defense comes along, Pearland could be dangerous.
Cibolo Steele 52-0 over SA Brennan - Last but certainly not least, perhaps the most shocking result of the weekend was Steele absolutely crushing San Antonio Brennan. The Knights sent a message with this one, vaulting them into the Top 10 in our rankings, and get an immediate chance to back it up with a road trip to Lake Travis this week.
Week 2 Top 50
No changes to our Top 6 this week, with each of Duncanville, North Shore, DeSoto, Westlake, Vandegrift, and Carroll notching impressive wins. We don’t expect this group to change much at all throughout the season.
As mentioned above, one of the bigger moves of the week was Steele punching into the Top 10, moving up four spots to #7 after trouncing Brennan. Katy fell out of the Top 10 mainly due to those around them making more impressive opening week showings. In general, that was a theme throughout the rankings; much of the movement of individual teams was more down to what was going on around them, who those folks played, and how they did against them. We see much greater fluctuation of rankings beyond #25 just due to how tightly that group of teams are packed…it doesn’t take as much Elo variation to move several spots in the rankings.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!