TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 10 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
We’d been looking ahead to Week 10 since early in the season, given the matchups that were on the calendar and given how the teams had looked early on, and the games absolutely delivered on the hype. There were so many decisive results and so many great performances and we’ll try to capture them all in today’s newsletter.
Model Performance
Despite some notable upsets, the model correctly picked 82.9% of the winners this week, which is right in line with the typical Week 10 performance, which is 82.3%.
The model went 6-4 in Top 10 games of the week, but went just 12-8 in this week’s Pick ‘Em contest.
Looking at the entire season to-date, the model did finally, officially, cross the 80% target that we had set out at the beginning of the season, reaching 80.2% overall. If we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, the model is correctly picking 84.4% of the winners, which just about matches CalPreps’ statewide results for Texas (I can’t find where/if they break out their picks by classification).
Looking back at the Top 10 Games of Week 10
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week. Take note that four of the biggest “upsets” of the week involved single-digit favorites!
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
Region 1:
Midland Legacy 49-31 over Midland, was +12, 77% to win - Huge Crosstown Showdown victory for Legacy in front of a capacity crowd to preserve their dominance in the series. Despite Midland being the undefeated team in this matchup, the model correctly identified Legacy as the favorite.
Boswell 36-28 over Crowley, was -2, 44% to win - With the win, Boswell now just has to beat Chisholm Trail to get in the playoffs (they are 98% to win in the model). Crowley is in the playoffs no matter what, but could be heading into the postseason on a three-game slide, with North Crowley on the schedule to close the regular season.
Byron Nelson 34-17 over Southlake Carroll, was -11, 25% to win - The Bobcats impressively confirmed their resume to date with a convincing win over Carroll to capture the district title and the #1 seed in D2. The model favors a rematch between these two in early December.
McKinney 37-20 over Denton Guyer, was -12, 23% to win - really important bounce-back for McKinney and an impressive win setting them up for a battle with Prosper for the district title in Week 11.
Prosper 37-36 over Allen, was +2, 56% to win - Prosper kept their district title hopes alive and grabbed the top seed in the D1 playoffs. It was a close game throughout, with Prosper getting the go ahead score with 4 minutes left. Prosper has now beaten Allen three times in a row.
Region 2:
DeSoto 49-35 over Duncanville, was -5, 37% to win - unbelievably impressive performance from DeSoto. The Eagles hit a 76 yard TD to Daylon Singleton on the first play of the game, then right after holding Duncanville to a FG in the red zone, they returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD. Duncanville would battle back to tie it at 14, but DeSoto just kept scoring. DeSoto got a TD just before half to make it 35-21, scoring more pts in 30 minutes than Duncanville had allowed all season. The Eagles, somewhat alarmingly, completely dominated both lines of scrimmage. It was a hugely impressive win for Coach Mathis and crew. For all the talk about D1 vs D2, this may be yet another year where the best team in the state resides in D2.
Waco Midway 41-17 over Pflugerville Weiss, was -20, 11% to win - WOW. Midway dominates undefeated Weiss to capture District Title after starting the season 1-5. The Panthers are rolling and are set to face Waxahachie in the first round of the playoffs.
Willis 60-52 over The Woodlands, was +1, 52% to win - DJ Lagway…and flags…lots of flags. I believe the count was 37 flags, to put a number on it, for nearly 400 yards in penalties. Despite it raining laundry on an otherwise beautiful Saturday afternoon, the two teams put on a thrilling display with Willis maintaining their undefeated record thanks to another record-setting performance from DJ Lagway. At this point, we’re not sure how anyone stops Lagway and the Kats, but they’ll face a huge physical test in the Oak Ridge Panthers next week, who boast two 5-star Georgia-bound defenders.
College Park 34-27 over New Caney, was -7, 32% to win - we’d been circling this one for a few weeks. This was a huge win for College Park setting up a play-in game vs Conroe this week. Great job by Coach Coats in year 1.
Region 3:
Houston Stratford 24-10 over Houston Memorial, was -2, 46% to win - It was Memorial’s turn for a front-row seat to the Aaron de Leon show. The Jr. QB for the Spartans was outstanding in leading Stratford over their rivals and locking up the top D2 seed.
Houston Westside 19-18 over Westbury, was -1, 48% to win - A one-point favorite winning by one is usually no big deal, but this win along with other results in the district means that undefeated Houston Lamar is likely headed to D2 where they’ll become an instant favorite in Region 3, alongside Summer Creek.
Katy Tompkins 49-24 over Jordan, was +5, 63% to win - Tompkins keeps on rolling, having won 5 in a row and outscoring opponents 45-14 since losing to Cinco. Jordan, on the other hand, is reeling a bit and now faces a must-win situation to make the playoffs vs Morton Ranch after giving up nearly 500 yards on the ground to Tompkins.
North Shore 61-35 over Atascocita, was +8, 70% to win - In the other marquee game of the week statewide, North Shore registered a dominant win over an Atascocita team that was putting up outstanding, arguably better, numbers. Bailey, Hardeman, and Co were hitting on all cylinders this week as this North Shore squad looks to be rounding into form just in time for the playoffs. North Shore has now outscored Atascocita 99-38 in their last two meetings. They are favored to meet again in 5 weeks in the D1, Region 3 final.
Summer Creek 33-12 over CE King, was +11, 75% to win - Another statement win in the toughest district in the state. Summer Creek continues to prove their worth and this win sets up a great closer against Atascocita, where the Bulldogs are looking to capture their first victory over their neighbors.
Region 4:
25-6A - Normally, you might expect that all of the favorites winning in the district might finally bring some clarity to a situation, but 25-6A has been far from normal all year. Westwood and McNeil’s victories, in particular, only increased the chances of a potential four-way tie for 2nd-5th place when the dust finally settles next week.
East Central 28-18 over Schertz Clemens, was -9, 29% to win - This one flew under the radar, but East Central’s win likely pushes Cibolo Steele to D2! Judson, East Central, and Schertz Clemens are now favored to end with 2-3 district records and Judson comes out on top due to point-differential, while East Central could go through based on this head-to-head result over Clemens.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 8 Top 50
DeSoto moved up to #2, just behind North Shore after their dominant and impressive win over Duncanville, while Duncanville fell to #3.
Atascocita stays at #4 despite the lopsided loss to North Shore, but are just fractions of an Elo point ahead of Westlake and not far ahead of Vandegrift at #6.
Summer Creek moves up to #7 after their win 21-point win over CE King.
Byron Nelson deservedly moved into the Top 10 with their groundbreaking win over Carroll, who dropped to #12. The Bobcats may still be underrated at #10.
Willis moved up to #13 with their win over The Woodlands and Prosper moved up 5 spots to #18 after their win over Allen.
McKinney moved back into the Top 25, to #25, up 14 spots after their decisive win over Guyer.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!
Great coverage.What Division will Katy be in?