TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 2 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
Week 2 was a wild one, as it often is, with some teams building on impressive performances from Week 1 and other teams bouncing back strongly after a disappointing start. We’ll take you through it all in this edition of the TNG weekly recap.
Model Performance
So, regression to the mean is a thing. After a record Week 1 performance, the model was brought back to Earth. The model correctly picked 69.1% of the Week 2 winners after hitting on 77% last week.
Although it was a bit disappointing to see lower performance this week and to miss on so many of the top games (see the next section below), the model performed right at its typical historical performance levels for Week 2. One good thing about there being so many upsets among the top teams is that the resulting correction to their Elos this early can possibly result in better model performance going forward.
Review of Top 10 Games of Week 2
The model really struggled this week at the upper end of the ratings spectrum, going 2-8 in the top 10 games rated by our new GameScore metric. The model was 1-3 in our featured games of the week.
Week 2 Featured Games Review
Humble Atascocita 42, Katy 34 (Atascocita favored by <1 pt, 50% to win)
In a game that had the intensity and the frequent momentum-shifting haymakers of a late-round playoff game, Atascocita came out on top as the worthy winners, collecting their first win over the Katy Tigers. Cardae Mack had his “Hello World” moment with a stunning performance toting the rock, while the Atascocita defense made things incredibly tough on the Katy rushing attack. The Tigers could’ve been blown out in this one, but showed plenty of heart and scrappiness that will serve them will in the long run if they can clean things up as they typically do. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked every bit like a team knocking on the door of the State Top 5.
Lake Travis 20, Cibolo Steele 10 (Steele favored by 3, 58% to win)
The Lake Travis defense showed up big for the second week in a row, setting the tone by forcing two consecutive three-and-outs on Steele’s first two offensive possessions. The Cavs took the lead on a long Kadyn Leon TD run and never looked back. Steele got it within a TD late only for Lake Travis to answer with a field goal to extend the lead to what would be the final score of 20-10. It was incredibly impressive performance by the Cavs after seeing what Steele did with relative ease against Brennan last week. Steele showed their quality in this one despite the loss and it will be quite an occasion if these two get to meet again in the playoffs as they did last year.
FB Hightower 14, Spring Westfield 9 (Westfield favored by 11, 78% to win)
This one may have been the most surprising result of the season to date. The Hightower Hurricane defense simply overwhelmed the Westfield offense with their collective team speed, especially in the front seven. Anytime Westfield wanted to go downfield, there was a swarm of green jerseys bearing down QB Miles Dent. The Westfield D did their part, limiting an outrageously talented Hightower offense to just 14 points. Westfield will have no time to hang their heads after this one as North Shore will be heading up to Planet Ford Stadium next week.
Highland Park 21, Lewisville 18 (Lewisville favored by 15, 82% to win)
In another surprising result, the Highland Park Scots defended their home turf against the highly-touted Lewisville Farmers, pulling out a 21-18 victory. We wondered how the defenses would fare against such potent offensive attacks, but both came out of the gates playing really well and both were especially tough in the redzone. A spectacular Keller Holmes TD run just before half put the Scots up 21-10. Lewisville would hold the Highland Park scoreless in the second half, but couldn’t get enough offense of their own going to overcome the Scots. This game was played at a very high level and both teams can take plenty of positives from this one.
Biggest Upsets of the Week
While some of the above were huge upsets, these ten below were the biggest in terms of pre-game projected margin of defeat.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
Pflugerville Weiss 44-19 over Austin LBJ (5A) - Weiss again impresses, absolutely cruising in a game in which the model only favored them by 5. Elo is clearly having a tough time catching up to the Wolves.
Conroe 28-0 over Eisenhower - The Tigers put up their second dominant showing in a row; could they be in the race for a 13-6A playoff spot?
CE King 45-28 over Allen - Wow! QB Darius Clark-James is proving to be an incredible addition to the Panthers. The Channelview transfer put up 5 passing TDs in the rout at Eagle Stadium.
Waxahachie 14-6 over Arlington Lamar - A win is a win, but the Indians haven’t quite reached their expected level just yet. With Cedar Hill bouncing back and with Mansfield always being a threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the Indians.
Willis 45-17 over Temple - it’s the second straight overperformance for the ‘Kats who are looking like possibly a district title contender. Coach Miller’s boys have come flying out of the gates in Year 2.
Houston Lamar 45-21 over The Woodlands - We said coming into the year that if Lamar had a QB, they had everything else in place for a special year…hello Jordan Reaves! The new Texans QB was nearly flawless for the second week in a row in a resounding win over the Highlanders.
Humble 43-16 over Klein Forest - another impressive result for the ever-improving Wildcats, who were 2pt underdogs this week. The ‘Cats look capable of springing some upsets in 21-6A.
Cedar Hill 33-2 over Arlington Martin - how about this for a bounce-back…last week Cedar Hill underperformed their projected result by 20 points in a loss to Rockwall, but turned around and overperformed expectations by 50 points against Martin. This was a Longhorn squad that can contend for the playoffs.
Brennan 28-10 over Brandeis - very impressive response from the Bears after the opening week loss to Steele. Brandeis is a good team and many thought they’d send Brennan to 0-2, but the Bears were having none of it.
Bridgeland 42-35 over Tompkins (OT) - An absolutely wild game on Saturday night, ending with Lonnie Madison starting his tenure at Bridgeland a well-earned 2-0. These Bears look really dangerous.
Dickinson 45-37 over Ridge Point - The Gators were very impressive in this one on the road after dropping their opener to Atascocita at home. Ridge Point again tried to rally from a deep deficit and nearly got it done, only to come up just short. This version of the Dickinson offense is going to be a handful for anyone to stop.
Liberty Hill 82-80 over Hutto - Excuse me, what?! The Slot T and Will Hammond show must have been quite a spectacle for all in attendance. Hutto’s Hammond threw for over 700 yards and accounted for 10 TDs. The condensed game footage of this one is what, an hour and a half? Mercy.
Week 2 Top 50
In this week’s Top 50, Atascocita and Lake Travis moved up to #6 and #7 after wins over Katy and Steele, effectively pushing Southlake Carroll back a couple of slots. Katy actually moved up as a result of losing a close one to a high quality team and due to so many other teams in this part of the rankings losing this week as favorites.
Lewisville, Steele, Westfield, Guyer, and The Woodlands all lost. Lamar made a huge jump with their dominant win over The Woodlands, moving up 20 spots to #20! Highland Park moved up to #19 with their win over Lewisville, but remains behind Lewisville in the rankings. We’ve mentioned it before, but this is one downside of an Elo ratings system; it just doesn’t react quickly enough in specific individual cases, but it will level out properly through the course of a season.
CE King made notable jump with their impressive 45-28 win at Allen, moving up 13 spots to #23.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!