TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 3 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
Just like that, three weeks of the regular season are behind us, and some teams have already notched key district wins. We’ll take you through all of the key results from Week 3 in this newsletter. A complete listing of all of the model picks from can be found at the very bottom.
Model Performance
Pending the result of the Monday finish between SA Madison and Churchill (more on that later!), the model correctly picked 74.6% this week. The average Week 3 model performance is 72.6%, so it’s nice to see the model trending right on track. The model went 8-2 in the Top 10 games of the week, shown in the table below, but hit on just 63% of this week’s difficult TNG Pick ‘Em slate.
Last week, we appeared as guest pickers on the HTownPickem show with Coach James Kowalewski and Coach Michael Obi. Using our model, we picked 22 Houston-area games and we went 17-5 in those! Check out our appearance on their show on YouTube and be sure subscribe to their channel. Kovo and Obi do great work and offer great insight into the Houston high school football landscape.
Review of Top 10 Games of Week 3
After a rough week last week, the model rebounded with an 8-2 mark in the Top 10 games of the week as picked by our GameScore metric. Through three weeks, the model has correctly picked 60% of the top 10 games featured each week.
Week 3 Featured Games Review
#9 Katy 41 - 7 over #35 Tompkins (Katy 81% to win, 14 pt fav)
This game started about as good as it could have for Tompkins, with a 4th down stop on Katy’s opening possession followed by a long drive of their own finishing with a 4th and Goal TD, but Katy dominated proceedings from then on. The Tiger offense was ruthlessly efficient, with three Katy QBs combining to complete 15 of 15 passes for 292 yards and 2 TDs Defensively, Katy continued their improvement and was able to shut down a dangerous Tompkins attack, holding them to under 200 yards of total offense. It was a statement win for this Katy squad and one that they can continue building from. Despite the loss, Tompkins is still one of the best teams in 19-6A and will be a tough playoff out for whoever faces them.
#2 North Shore 45 - 9 over #13 Spring Westfield (NS 90% to win, 21pt fav)
This game had the potential to be better than what the model was indicating, due to the incredibly talented defensive unit Westfield was bringing to the party, but North Shore showed once again that they are simply a different beast with Kaleb Bailey healthy. This game was never in doubt and you start to wonder if anyone but Duncanville can threaten this North Shore squad when they’re at full strength. Coach Gaston has North Shore operating at a very high level early and it’s a credit him and to his staff that they haven’t missed a beat on the Eastside. Don’t count out Westfield based on this result, though. We saw a similar result in this game last year and Westfield went on a deep run in the playoffs.
#12 Summer Creek 34 - 0 over #16 Klein Collins (SC 61% to win, 4pt fav)
All signs were pointing to a very tight, last possession, type of game at Klein Memorial and what we got instead was an emphatic statement by Kenny Harrison’s Bulldogs. Coming into the year, it looked like Summer Creek would field one of the state’s top defensive units and they certainly backed that up with a shutout of an incredibly talented Klein Collins squad featuring one of the state’s best QBs. In recent years, Summer Creek would start sort of slowly and build throughout the season and become a seriously playoff force over time. For this year’s Bulldogs to start 3-0, capping non-district with this performance, is significant. Klein Collins is too good and too talented on both sides of the ball to suffer too much from this loss, but they’ll need to right the ship quickly with a tough set of district games ahead.
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
Euless Trinity 59-49 over FM Marcus, was a 5pt fav - big win for Trinity after two close losses. Trojans get some needed momentum headed into a tricky district schedule.
Klein Cain 50-27 over Cy Falls, was < 1pt fav - very impressive showing for Cain in a game that the model saw as a toss-up against another district’s title contender.
DeKaney 38-14 over Humble, was a 1pt underdog - DeKaney flexes their muscles against a surging Humble team, showing that they may indeed have high-end potential.
SA Harlan 36-28 over Brennan, was a 16pt underdog - Harlan claims a huge victory as a big underdog to open district play. Brennan still trying to find their footing with an inexperienced squad.
Eastwood 49-42 over Pebble Hills, was an 8pt underdog - We thought this would be a good one and boy did it deliver! What a win for the Troopers to knock off the defending champs to open district play
North Crowley 43-20 over Lovejoy, was an 8pt fav - North Crowley just keeps outplaying their model projections every week and Elo can’t seem to catch up; impressive stuff from the Panthers against a 5A powerhouse.
Allen 51-31 over Martin, was a 4pt fav - good to see Eagles finally get a W. They were favored here, but to win comfortably was impressive.
Rockwall 47-41 over Prosper, was a 7pt underdog - This was another one that was a great game, as expected. The win vaults Rockwall back into the State Top 25.
Lake Highlands 51-41 over Highland Park, was a 21pt underdog - great win for Lake Highlands after losing to Flower Mound last week. RB Deonte Dean went nuts with 376 yards on 31 carries in one of many DFW games played across two days due to lightning.
Mansfield 49-29 over SGP, was a 1pt fav - Impressive win for the Tigers who’ve shown early that they are definitely going to factor into the 11-6A race.
Copperas Cove 42-36 over Manor and Cedar Ridge 34-33 over Harker Heights - These two results combined seem to further increase the number of potential outcomes in the ever-wild 25-6A playoff race. Kudos to Cove for grabbing a big win after having struggled recently.
The Woodlands 55-26 over Oak Ridge, was a 15pt fav - Well, there’s the Woodlands squad we were expecting to see. Great win against an immensely talented district foe after a disappointing start to 2023. This could be the result that gets the Highlanders going.
Willis 55-21 over New Caney, was <1pt underdog - Kats make a statement over the defending district champs. Willis has the look of a team that could challenge The Woodlands for the title.
Katy Taylor 11-7 over Cinco Ranch, was a 19pt underdog - huge win for Taylor in a game where both teams were missing key players. Taylor winning this one puts as many as 5 teams in the race for 4th place in 19-6A…3 of which would send Katy to D1 and 2 of which (Cinco or Seven Lakes) would send Katy to D2
George Ranch 45-21 over Clements, was a 1pt fav - huge win both in importance in the playoff race and in the final margin for George Ranch. The Longhorns continue to outpace the model. Clements is still alive in the playoff race, but may need to spring an upset or hope for George Ranch to stumble along the way.
Shadow Creek 41-24 over Bridgeland, was an 8pt fav - Shadow Creek confirmed their previous performances with another solid win over a good team here. The Sharks are for real.
Cibolo Steele 57-27 over Hutto, was a 29pt fav - Really good bounce-back performance for Steele here, showing that their defense is no joke. This inter-regional result also helped to confirm that the model has both teams fairly well measured.
Weiss 21-10 over Judson, was a 5pt - Another good performance from Weiss and, as good as they’ve been, this one helps show how good Westlake is (Chaps beat Judson 47-0 last week)
And last but certainly not least…
SA Churchill and Madison tied at 21 in regulation after battling through several lightning delays, only to have the Overtime period postponed until Monday evening as a final round of storms rolled through near midnight! This a huge game in the 28-6A playoff race as these two teams are currently projected to finish 4th and 5th.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 4 Top 50
North Shore narrowly takes over #1 spot this week following their impressive win over Westfield, finishing just 1 Elo point ahead of Duncanville, who was idle and didn’t have a chance to increase their rating. This will be of no concern for the Panthers, of course, but the computer is recognizing North Shore’s outstanding performance in non-district play.
Humble Atascocita moves up to #4 from #6 with dominant win over East St. Louis (IL), backing up wins over Katy and Dickinson. We looked hard at East St. Louis’ Elo rating and how that contributed to Atascocita’s rise this week, but even if we had rated the Flyers as a borderline Texas Top 25 team, Atascocita would’ve still jumped Westlake and Vandegrift on the merits of their three wins in the eyes of the computer.
Also in 21-6A, Humble Summer Creek jumped up to #9 from #13 following their 34-0 takedown of Klein Collins at Klein Memorial Stadium. The Bulldogs are in new territory, starting the year undefeated against high-quality opposition and fully earning their Top 10 status.
Willis made a big move in the rankings to #18 from #29 after their huge win over reigning district champs, New Caney. The explosive ‘Kats are looking really good in Year two under Coach Miller.
Elsewhere, the Rockwall Yellowjackets moved up 10 spots to #23 up from #33 following their upset shootout win over Prosper.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!