TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 4 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
For those that have already started district play, some key battles have already taken place that will affect the ultimate outcome of their district’s race, while others still working through their non-district schedules are learning a ton about what they will have when they eventually begin their playoff push. We’ll take you through all of the key results from Week 4 in this newsletter. A complete listing of all of the model picks from Week 4 can be found at the very bottom.
Model Performance
For the second time this season, the model set a new weekly all-time high, correctly picking 85.4% of the winners in Week 4. The previous high was 82.7% in Week 4 of 2015. The typical Week 4 performance is 77%.
Review of Top 10 Games of Week 4
For the second week in a row, the model posted an 8-2 mark in the Top 10 games of the week as picked by our GameScore metric. Through four weeks, the model has correctly picked 65% of the top 10 games featured each week.
Week 4 Featured Games Review
#31 Ridge Point beat #15 Hightower 43-36 (Hightower 74% to win, 10pt fav)
What a performance by the Ridge Point offense against a Hightower defense that had been very good to start the season. Austin Carlisle and his weapons on the perimeter proved to be too much for the Hurricanes to handle, racking up with over 300 yds passing and 4 TDs through the air. Carlisle also made good use of his speed, picking up some critical yardage while scrambling on Ridge Point’s drive that put them up 43-29 late in the fourth quarter. Hightower fought hard and closed gap each time it looked like Ridge Point would pull away, but came up short in the end. This was the 5th win in 6 tries for Ridge Point in this rivalry and it was great for the Panthers to get level at 2-2 after a challenging 4-game set to start season. Ridge Point is now in the driver’s seat for another district title run and they’ll have plenty to build on as they aim for a deep playoff run.
#25 Prosper beat #14 Denton Guyer 31-28 (Guyer 69% to win, 8pt fav)
Prosper finally got their win over Guyer, but it didn’t come easy. Prosper led 31-15 deep into the 4th quarter when Guyer started to mount a furious rally. Prosper faithful may have started to fear the worst as Guyer was in the midst of their charge, but the Eagles held on for the hard-earned victory. In our preview of this game last week we mentioned that the Guyer defense may have had the higher ceiling, possibly giving them the edge in the game, but it was Prosper’s defense who showed up big in this one, providing the opportunity for the Prosper ground game to build a lead just big enough that Guyer wasn’t able to overcome it in the end. This was a huge program win for Prosper in a rebuilding year with a new head coach in a rapidly expanding district. Guyer, who’s doing a fair amount of rebuilding of their own this year, will have plenty of good things to take from this one as they go forward and, because this district is so tough top-to-bottom, the 5-6A title race is far from over.
#10 Cibolo Steele beat #23 Midland Legacy 62-31 (Steele 73% to win, 9 pt fav)
In a game featuring two of the state’s most prolific offenses it was no surprise to see nearly 100 points rolled up on the scoreboard. The Steele defense was the more effective of the two defensive units, holding Legacy’s attack to nearly three touchdowns below their season average to-date. Both teams returned similar amounts of experience from last year’s squads that waged a one-score battle last year in Midland, but Steele’s improvements on both sides of the ball provided the separation in this one. Aside from putting up just 10 pts in their loss to Lake Travis, Steele has put up 52, 57, and 62 in their other three games against playoff-quality opposition.
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
EP Americas 16-10 over Franklin; was 16pt underdog, 16% to win - huge upset win for Americas that puts them back in playoff picture and puts a sizeable dent in Franklin’s district title hopes
Richardson Berkner 35-28 over Richardson Pearce; was a 2pt underdog, 45% to win - really good game, as expected. Berkner’s win puts them in a great position to make the playoffs, while Pearce will likely have to cause a big upset down the road.
Waxahachie 39-21 over Cedar Hill; was a 5pt favorite, 62% to win - huge win for Waxahachie. Cedar Hill was driving to take a 21-14 lead before half and Waxahachie took a pick-6 90 yards to the house as time expired in the 1st half. This result puts Waxahachie in phenomenal shape to make the playoffs and all but guarantees that DeSoto will head to the Division 2 playoff bracket.
Killeen Harker Heights 27-25 over Permian; was a 3pt favorite, 59% to win - good win for Harker Heights and another good model confirmation in an inter-regional game.
The Woodlands 49-42 over New Caney; was an 8pt favorite, 69% to win - The Woodlands offense is rolling all of the sudden but New Caney showed some firepower that we didn’t know they had. It would appear the model has a fairly good handle on these two squads.
Willis 63-14 over Conroe; was a 12pt favorite, 78% to win - Wow. Here come the ‘Kats. In a battle of undefeateds, Willis showed out yet again. This team at full strength is a sight to behold and they are going to be a problem for anyone going forward.
Katy Cinco Ranch 38-28 over Katy Tompkins; was a 20pt underdog, 11% to win - Cinco went down 21-0 early only to drop a 38-7 run from then on behind a resilient defense and Sophomore call-up QB Davis Roup. The Cougars’ playoff hopes are very much back online.
Katy Taylor 31-10 over Katy Seven Lakes; was a 2pt underdog, 45% to win - At 2-0 in district now, Taylor is firmly in the 19-6A playoff race, especially having beaten Cinco last week. Dante Archie returned this week and looked like the most dangerous weapon in the district.
Dickinson 37-8 over Klein Oak; was a 10pt favorite, 74% to win - very impressive win for Dickinson over a Klein Oak team that we thought may have been underrated in this matchup. With Solomon at QB, Dickinson is a major threat.
Vista Ridge 28-7 over Cedar Ridge; was a 3pt favorite, 58% to win - Vista Ridge continues to look like a solid bet for the playoffs and this loss will have damaged Cedar Ridge’s playoff hopes, especially with the next two results we’ll cover below. All of this together means that Vandegrift’s potential of flipping to D1 this year is growing stronger.
Round Rock 24-21 over Round Rock Westwood; was a 7pt favorite, 67% to win - the Dragons get on the board and get back into playoff contention by pulling one out of the fire that they could’ve easily lost. Westwood, despite losing this critical game, showed that they are for real this year and they can’t be counted out in the playoff conversation.
Manor 42-31 over Round Rock McNeil; was a 6pt favorite, 64% to win - Manor stays alive too, with a huge win led by RB Titus Pettaway. The Mustangs would have been in serious trouble with a loss here, and by the same token, McNeil’s playoff hopes took a severe blow.
Austin Bowie 34-30 over Austin Anderson; was a 15pt favorite, 83% to win - Anderson mounted an incredible comeback bid to nearly provide them with a monumental win in terms of their playoff hopes this year, but the ‘Dawgs held on to nearly assure yet another playoff appearance.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 5 Top 50
Unlike last week, there were no changes to our Top 9. Cibolo Steele moved up to #10 from #12 with their convincing win over Midland Legacy. Willis moved up to #14 from #18 after demolishing previously unbeaten Conroe, and Prosper moved up eight spots, from #26 to #18 on the strength of their first-ever win over Denton Guyer. The biggest mover of the week within in the Top 25 was Ridge Point, who gained eleven spots, moving up from #31 to #20.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!