Week 6 may be light on total games, with just 91 contests involving 6A squads (compare to 166 in Week 1!), but there are so many absolutely crucial battles taking place this week. We’ll get you ready for it all below. We’ll follow the same format as we have presented in the last few weeks: you’ll find links to our Week 5 Review and this week’s podcast; we’ll preview the expected model performance; we’ll preview our Games of the Week; take a look at the Closest Calls; and we’ll walk you through the key Games to Watch Around the State. Saving the best for last, you’ll find our model’s picks of every game this week down at the bottom of the newsletter.
Week 6 Review
In case you missed our Week 5 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
Also, don’t forget to checkout the podcast. In addition to finding the podcast episodes by being a subscriber to this site, you can find our Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and we’ll also be uploading each episode (audio only for now) on YouTube. Please subscribe, comment, and ‘like’ the Pod to help elevate it in the search engines of each platform.
With that, let’s look ahead to Week 6…
Historical Model Performance for Week 6
From Week 6 forward, history shows that the model should regularly hit on over 80% of the projected winners. With the strong start we had to this season, we are on track to hit our goal of topping the 80% mark for the entire season.
Top Games of the Week
We’ve had three weeks in a row now where the model has hit on 8 out of 10 of our Games of the Week. Which ones will be the upsets this week? There are 6 games projected to be within a touchdown, so there’s plenty of potential for some volatility. The table below lists the top games on this week’s schedule in terms of our GameScore metric.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us only three games that fall within a two-point projected margin.
Quick Hits: Games to Watch Around the State
Conroe Oak Ridge +3, 59% to win vs Conroe - 3rd vs 4th here in 13-6A. Both in good standing for playoffs, but they don’t want to drop one to a rival. With Oak Ridge bouncing back, these two appear headed in opposite directions.
San Antonio Jay +5, 63% to win vs San Antonio Sotomayor - Sotomayor has only allowed 7pts this season and is undefeated following a rough inaugural season in 2022. The Wildcats have a huge chance to get into 29-6A playoff race with a win here and they should possibly be the favorite in this one.
EP Pebble Hills +10, 75% to win vs EP Americas - chance for Americas to get another pelt on the wall and perhaps challenge for district title? Pebble Hills needs to win to keep the heat on Eastwood and keep their repeat title hopes alive.
Flower Mound +2, 56% to win vs FM Marcus - winner here is in great position for playoffs; can Marcus follow up their big win over Hebron or will the Jags take the inside track?
Lewisville Hebron +5, 64% to win vs Plano East - speaking of Hebron, they have a tough one against Plano East and Drew Devillier. An East win here could get them into serious playoff contention.
Aldine Nimitz +4, 61% to win vs Eisenhower - Elo is calling this one tighter than we see it. The Cougars could take a big step toward playoffs with a W over their local rivals. Nimitz has been impressive, frequently outplaying their Elo.
Spring Westfield +20, 89% to win vs Spring DeKaney - big rivalry game…upset potential here maybe? DeKaney has shown a wide range of performances, flashing high-end potential, while Westfield has been performing below expectations, mainly offensively. DeKaney has been better on D lately. Keep an eye on this one.
Tomball +5, 63% to win vs Klein Oak - huge game with Tomball Memorial crashing the party; this one suddenly has a sort of play-in game feeling. Tomball is projected 3rd at 75% to make it, while Oak is currently projected 5th at 38%.
Cy Ranch +3, 58% to win vs Cy Springs - huge game between two teams still in the district title race along with Bridgeland. Springs may be favored here if not for the tight one against Park; they were flying otherwise.
Katy +27, 95% to win vs Katy Jordan - Undefeated Jordan comes in with plenty of confidence and the overwhelmingly higher number of recruits while Katy is quietly hitting stride. The computer loves the Tigers here and it’s down to the schedules to date…Jordan’s average opponent’s Elo rating has been 1022, ranking 207th out of 249 6A schedules. Katy’s average opponent has had an Elo of 1702, ranking 41st out of 249 teams, and the two teams have similar raw scoring margins.
North Shore +29, 95% to win vs CE King - this one would have more intrigue had King not shown some vulnerabilities in nearly losing to Humble. It’s still a key district battle between two Top 25 teams and definitely worthy of attention.
Clear Creek +4, 61% to win vs Clear Lake - 24-6A battle between teams projected #4 and #5 currently and the computer likes a tight one. The loser of this onen will have a very steep climb back into the playoff picture.
Clear Springs <1, 50% to win vs Clear Falls - another great one in 24-6A pits Dickinson’s chasers against one another in a big one that looks like a toss up. These rivals being separated by only 2 Elo points this deep in the season is truly remarkable.
Round Rock Cedar Ridge +8, 69% to win vs Westwood - Official TNG Upset Alert here. We’re developing a Score Predictor which combines Elo with our underlying scoring metrics and it likes Westwood to win this one. It’s a huge game for both teams given the strength throughout the rest of the district. Neither can afford to drop this one.
SA Churchill +3, 57% to win vs SA Roosevelt - 28-6A is just so balanced and it seems to crank out great games every week This is one of two this week. Churchill and Roosevelt sit projected at 4th and 5th in the playoff race going into this week. Absolutely critical game.
FB Ridge Point +22, 91% to win vs George Ranch - two teams coming into this one on fire, with Ridge Point scoring 55 ppg in their last 3 while George Ranch comes in 5-0. This one has a similar feel to the Katy-Jordan game, where you have established powers taking lumps early in difficult schedules facing district contenders that are less-tested.
SA Johnson +9, 73% to win vs Brandeis - Johnson is rounding into a really good-looking team, showing good balance between offense and defense (+10 AOS, -7 ADS) which hasn’t been the case in recent years. You give Ty Hawkins a D and this is now a very dangerous team.
Reminder: TNG Pick ‘Em
If you missed our initial Week 5 Pick ‘Em email, or if you haven’t yet gotten off the sidelines to join us in the battle, go to our Week 6 Pick ‘Em page and jump in! Test your wits against us and against our model to see how you stack up.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.