TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 6 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
It may have been a week short on volume, with only 90 games on the 6A schedule, but Week 6 was high on drama and impact, with many critical results and outstanding performances to note. We’ll take you through all of the action below.
Model Performance
The model correctly picked 80% of the winners this week (72 of 90). The historical Week 6 average model performance has been 81%, so despite there being a number of significant upsets this week, the model was right on track. The model went 7-3 in the Top 10 games of the week, bringing the season-long tally to 41-19 on the Top 10 games through the first 6 weeks.
Looking back at the Top 10 Games of Week 6
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
EP Americas 24-23 over EP Pebble Hills, was 10pt underdog, 26% to win - Americas is now firmly projecting into playoffs and is in the district title hunt with a great win over the defending champs.
EP Montwood 41-35 over EP Franklin, was 21pt underdog, 10% to win - Montwood has played their way into playoff contention with this massive upset of Franklin. The Rams now have a 78% chance of making the postseason.
Coppell 49-28 over Lewisville, was 19pt underdog, 12% to win - Coppell continued their stellar play with a resounding upset over Lewisville. The Cowboys are undefeated and now very likely to finish the regular season unbeaten.
FM Marcus 35-26 over Flower Mound, was 2pt underdog, 44% to win - Huge win for Marcus, putting them in excellent position to make the playoffs, while the Jags now basically have a play-in game against Hebron in Week 8.
Wylie East 28-17 over Garland, was 1pt fav, 54% to win - Big win for East as the overall picture in 9-6A looks surprisingly clear, as far as the Top 4.
Pflugerville Weiss 28-25 over Temple, was 23pt fav, 92% to win - Temple nearly pulled off a shocker, but Weiss pulled it out in the end. Weiss can’t let the guard down and Temple may not be out of the playoff hunt just yet.
Cy Springs 35-31 over Cy Ranch, was 3pt underdog, 42% to win - winning as just a 3pt underdog doesn’t capture how big of a win this was for Cy Springs to knock off the perennial favorite in the district. Springs is now 97% to make the playoffs and is the favorite to win district.
Katy 42-35 over Jordan, was 27pt favorite, 94% to win - Jordan said they were going to make history and they nearly did! Great performance by the Warriors in a highly-charged atmosphere, but Katy responded extremely well to the challenge out of halftime and got the W. A new rivalry is born.
FB Austin 24-21 over FB Clements, was 13pt underdog, 20% to win - Austin has had a great start to their season and, with this win, now has a shot at the playoffs. They’ll have a key game against Travis in Week 8 and a game they should win vs Bush in Week 10. Clements now needs to create some upsets of their own to get back into contention.
North Shore 42-6 over CE King, was 29pt fav, 95% to win - This was one of the few chances where the Mustangs could be challenged, but they again proved to be simply too good. Being a 29pt favorite against a legit Top 25 team and then exceeding that is just what we’ve come to expect from North Shore, but it doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be appreciated.
Clear Creek 24-21 over Clear Lake, was 4pt fav, 61% to win - This was a pivotal win for Creek as it improved their odds to make the playoffs to 91% while leaving Lake at 23%.
Clear Falls 22-14 over Clear Springs, was <1pt underdog, 50% to win - These teams could barely be separated by the computer going into the week and Falls squeaked out a 1-score win. Falls stays in contention for District Title.
RR McNeil 7-6 over Vista Ridge, was 22pt underdog, 9% to win - McNeil’s only score came on a 3rd and 21 hook-and-ladder in the second quarter, but the Mavs rode their defense to a massive upset. Vista Ridge must regroup quickly, with as many as 6 teams vying for 4 spots.
RR Westwood 41-0 over Cedar Ridge, was 8pt underdog, 31% to win - we called an “upset alert” on this one last week, but surely didn’t see a 41 point thrashing in the realm of possibilities! Little is certain in 25-6A, but this loss will make things extremely difficult for Cedar Ridge to make the playoffs, while Westwood suddenly looks to be in good position.
Austin High 31-27 over Bowie, was 29pt underdog, 4.5% to win - Maroons strike again with a huge upset. Bowie now must beat Buda Johnson in Wk 8 to have a shot at the playoffs (current odds have them at 48% to win that one).
SA Clark 30-28 over SA Madison, was 11pt underdog, 25% to win - Clark vaults into playoff contention while Madison suffers another heartbreakingly close loss; 5 of 6 Madison games have been decided by less than a TD and they are 2-3 in those games, unfortunately.
SA Jay 37-15 over SA Sotomayor, was 5pt fav, 63% to win - Jay stays in the playoff race by putting 37 on Sotomayor who had only allowed 7 all season. A Jay win over Taft in Wk 10 could get them in through a potential tiebreaker.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 7 Top 50
North Shore moved back on top with dominating performance against CE King. Duncanville gets Waxahachie this week, while North Shore gets #8 Summer Creek, giving our frontrunners two great chances to flex again.
Lewisville fell to #29 from #12 with their loss to Coppell, allowing others to move up.
Ridge Point moved up to #19 from #23 with their impressive 55-27 win over previously undefeated George Ranch.
Coppell moved up to #27 from #41 with their win over Lewisville. As mentioned above, the Cowboys’ performances to date definitely deserve attention as they are looking like a really solid team capable of causing a stir in the playoffs.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!