TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 7 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
With the six-team districts finally kicking off their district schedules this week, we had a full schedule of district games to enjoy in Week 7 and it did not disappoint. We’ll take you through all of the significant results below and we’ll show you the complete summary of the week’s results at the bottom of this post.
Model Performance
This week, the model correctly picked 89.4% of the winners; a new Week 7 record! The previous Week 7 high was 84.3%, and the historical Week 7 average performance is 81%. The model went 10-0 in the Top 10 games of the week and it 18-2 in this week’s TNG Pick ‘Em slate.
Looking at the entire season to date, the model has picked 78.5% of the winners. If we follow CalPreps’ lead and only count the results beginning with the week of September 15th to allow for the model to sort out the early season kinks, the model is hitting on 84.2% of the winners.
Looking back at the Top 10 Games of Week 7
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
EP Eastwood 26-21 over EP Americas, was 9pt fav, 73% to win - Eastwood takes control of the title race, denying Americas a third upset bid of the season.
EP Montwood 41-20 over EP Eastlake, was 3pt underdog, 41% to win - Montwood is now in fantastic shape to make playoffs, while Eastlake sits projected 6th and are double-digit underdogs in each of their remaining games.
Odessa 49-42 over Permian, was 18pt underdog, 13% to win - How about the Bronchos picking up their first win over Permian in 10 years! Because there are only 5 district games in 2-6A, this was a massive result for both squads. Permian will have more work to do than normal to make the playoffs, while Odessa High is in really good shape.
Midland Legacy 63-56 over Wolfforth Frenship, was 5pt fav, 62% to win - We expected a shootout and still got more than we expected! With the win, Legacy claims the inside track to district title, while Frenship proves their worth as a playoff contender in their first game against a 6A opponent.
Plano East 41-25 over Flower Mound, was 8pt underdog, 31% to win - Plano East gets itself back into playoff contention with a huge win and effectively knocks Flower Mound out of the race. East will likely need to beat Marcus in Week 11 to get in.
Rockwall-Heath 34-7 over Tyler Legacy, was 8pt fav, 70% to win - Heath gets a convincing win to virtually assure themselves of a playoff spot, while Legacy will need to cause a major upset or two in the final weeks.
Cedar Hill 47-14 over Mansfield, was 2pt fav, 54% to win - the model may have turned some heads pre-game by favoring a 1-win team over an undefeated one, but Cedar Hill turned even more heads by dominating this game to firmly put themselves into the playoff picture.
Harker Heights 44-35 over Hutto, was 12pt fav, 78% to win - Harker Heights just about guaranteed their playoff spot with this win, but Hutto is still alive despite the loss. The Hippos need to win toss-up games against Temple this week and over Bryan in Week 10.
Waco Midway 40-29 over Temple, was 1pt underdog, 46% to win vs - Midway now projects 3rd in district and is 96% to make the playoffs. Temple is technically still alive, but they’ll need to run the table and get some help.
New Caney 28-18 over Conroe, was 1pt fav, 52% to win - The win keeps New Caney in the hunt for the playoffs and basically knocks Conroe out. New Caney versus College Park in Week 10 is looking like a play-in game for the final spot in the playoffs.
Klein Collins 35-14 over Tomball Memorial, was 6pt fav, 64% to win - Collins physically dominated this game from start to finish and, aside from a wild sequence at the end of the first half, they were never in danger of losing this game. Collins’ ground game was just too much to handle. Michael Wilson was unstoppable. The Collins D was outstanding against what had been one of the highest scoring teams in the state.
Bridgeland 12-10 over Cy Falls, was 3pt fav, 58% to win - Bridgeland rode a great defensive effort and got a game-winning FG as time expired to put themselves in position to win the district title.
Katy Taylor 15-6 over Katy Morton Ranch, was 2pt fav, 56% to win - The Mustangs continue their playoff push with a crucial win over Morton Ranch. If Taylor beats both Paetow and Mayde Creek, they will likely be in the playoffs; the model gives them a 48% chance of doing just that.
Katy Jordan 48-21 over Katy Cinco Ranch, was 1pt fav, 52% to win - Jordan followed up their performance against Katy with an impressive win over Cinco Ranch which virtually guarantees a playoff spot for Jordan and leaves Cinco Ranch needing to either win out or have Taylor lose a game in which they’re favored.
North Shore 31-21 over Summer Creek, was 18pt fav, 87% to win - What a game! This one was pretty tight throughout, with Summer Creek having an opportunity late to go up as much as 28-21, but was held scoreless in the red zone when North Shore blocked their FG attempt. It was a strong showing from Summer Creek, confirming their state ranking and confirming what we’ve thought of their defense.
Channelview 42-32 vs South Houston, was 1pt fav, 53% to win - The Falcons nearly lock up their playoff spot with this huge win. With this result, the 22-6A playoff teams are basically set, and South Houston is likely on the outside looking in.
Pasadena Dobie 42-27 over Pasadena Memorial, was 8pt fav, 71% to win - We mentioned last week that this was Dobie’s toughest test on its way to claiming the district title and after this victory they now have about a 70% chance to run the table and get it done.
Dickinson 45-13 over Clear Falls, was 10pt fav, 75% to win - Another incredible performance from Dickinson, yet again blowing the model expectations out of the water. The Gators are playing above their current #13 state rank.
Vista Ridge 26-21 over Round Rock Westwood, was 8pt fav, 69% to win - Vista Ridge now has greater than 85% chance to make the playoffs with this huge win while Westwood is now firmly in the potential tiebreaker quagmire.
Round Rock 42-13 over Manor, was 5pt fav, 62% to win - This was the type of performance we’ve been expecting of Round Rock and they picked a good time for it. The Dragons are now over 95% to make the playoffs and Manor is now among 4 teams fighting for 4th, along with Westwood, McNeil, and Stony Point.
SA Brandeis 24-12 over SA Churchill, was < 1pt fav, 51% to win - Big win for Brandeis putting them into 3rd in the district playoff projection, just behind Johnson and Reagan. Despite the loss, Churchill is still in good position to make the playoffs, but they have less room for error.
Weslaco 35-32 over Harlingen, was 8pt underdog, 29% to win - Great win for Weslaco announcing their candidacy as a district title contender. The undefeated Panthers can’t bask in this one too long as they travel to Los Fresnos this week.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 8 Top 50
The Top 10 was basically unchanged, with Summer Creek giving up just a couple of spots following their loss against North Shore.
Dickinson moved up to #13 with their emphatic win over Clear Falls. The Gators are on of the very few outside of the Top 10 that has a legitimate claim to be in there, having consistently outplayed their Elo for several weeks running.
The other big mover this week was Klein Collins who moved up 8 spots to #15 with their impressive win over Tomball Memorial.
Aside from those two, the movement within the rankings wasn’t too significant due to so many favorites winning this week.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!
Thanks for the continued great work boys.