We’re down to just three weeks to go in the 2023 regular season, with plenty of huge games on tap. Week 9 looks like it will be similar to Week 8 in that it should provide plenty of impactful results, especially among teams on the fringes of playoff contention. A number to keep in mind as you look at the projections below is 20%. Any underdog with around a 20% or greater chance to win in the model has a very realistic shot of pulling off the upset; that is always the case, but as we get down to the final weeks of the season and the importance of the games increases, that threshold is important to keep in mind.
Week 8 Review
In case you missed our Week 8 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
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With that, let’s look ahead to Week 8…
Historical Model Performance for Week 9
Top Games of the Week
The model has correctly picked 45 of the last 60 Games of the Week. Which ones will be the upsets this week? Five out of the ten best games this week are projected to be within single-digit margins. The table below lists the top games on this week’s schedule in terms of our GameScore metric.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us a whopping 8 games that fall within a two-point projected margin.
Quick Hits: Games to Watch Around the State
Wolfforth Frenship +5, 62% to win vs Odessa Permian - This is truly a must win for both teams, given their current position in the 2-6A standings and given that there appears to be a high likelihood that the final playoff spots will come down to tiebreakers. This will be one of the best opportunities, in terms of the model, for each of these teams to get a crucial win down the stretch.
Boswell +2, 56% to win vs Weatherford - A Boswell win here takes us toward 3-way tie for 4th, which could see Boswell through to the playoffs if they win by 4 or more. A Weatherford win would just about lock up Weatherford’s playoff spot, knocking Boswell and Bell out.
Denton Guyer +1, 53% to win vs Allen - Allen’s resurgence makes this one “must see”. The model now views these two as equals and the matchups appear to suggest the same. How will Guyer’s high-powered offense do against Allen’s much-improved defense? These two will be in separate playoff brackets and each is capable of going 4 rounds or deeper.
Rockwall-Heath +4, 61% to win vs Mesquite Horn - Horn must win this one and just keep winning each week in order to make the playoffs, due to dropping that game against Legacy last week. Heath is in great shape for now, but because of how closely stacked the playoff contenders are in this district in terms of Elo, they can’t afford to drop any game in which they’re favored.
Tyler Legacy +2, 54% to win vs Royse City - Legacy needs a win here to maintain their momentum from beating Horn last week, or else they are in danger of bringing Horn and Royse City firmly into the playoff mix. Royse City is in the hunt now, but they’ll need to cause some model upsets to lock down a spot…this would appear to be a great opportunity for them.
Waco Midway +1, 52% to win vs Bryan - The model see a toss-up in this great matchup which could prove to be an eventual tiebreaker decider for one of the final playoff spots in 12-6A. A Bryan win could send us toward a 3-way tie for 3rd and 4th between Hutto, Bryan, and Midway, who will all face-off in Weeks 9 and 10.
Shadow Creek +4, 60% to win vs Dawson - Dawson is now on top of the district title race at 4-0, but a Shadow Creek win could force a 3-way tie at 6-1 at the top between Pearland, Shadow Creek, and Dawson. This game pits two outstanding defenses against one another. Can Dawson ride their running game like they did last week?
Vista Ridge +5, 63% to win vs Manor and Westwood +3, 59% to win vs Stony Point - 4 of the 5 teams in contention for the final two playoff spots in 25-6A face-off this week. If Vista Ridge were to lose, they’d likely be out of the playoffs, and Manor would suddenly be in pretty good shape to make it. Meanwhile, Westwood badly needs to win to stay clear of a potential tiebreaker mess that could evolve.
Lake Travis +13, 80% to win vs Dripping Springs - Drip won this one last year at Lake Travis and gets to host the Cavs this year. Both played Westlake tough, proving that they belonged among the state’s elite. This one is all about pride and about establishing momentum as these two head toward the playoffs.
San Benito +6, 65% to win vs Harlingen - The famed Battle of the Arroyo. Harlingen has won the last 4 meetings and 6 of the last 10, but have lost two regular season games while San Benito is undefeated. This will be the Greyhounds best opponent to date, by far. Harlingen’s Elo is nearly double that of San Benito’s average opponent to-date. San Benito is a clear favorite on paper, but anything can happen in this storied rivalry.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.