TNG 2023 Class 6A Week 9 Recap
See how the model did, review the top results of the week, and see the new Top 50
Week 9 saw lots of “chalk” results, according to the model, but those results were still plenty significant given where we stand in the regular season, with just two weeks remaining. The results we’ll discuss below setup a rather epic Week 10, which we’ll cover in a subsequent email.
Model Performance
The model picked a Week 9 record high of 88.9% of the correct winners this past week! That is the fourth weekly record high achieved this season. The model performance was so strong that 6 single-digit underdog victors showed up on our “Biggest Upsets” of the week…wow.
The model went 7-3 in Top 10 games games of the week and it went a cool 16-4 in Pick ‘Em.
Looking at the complete season-to-date, the model has correctly picked 79.96% of all games involving 6A squads, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, the model is correctly picking 84.6% of the winners.
Looking back at the Top 10 Games of Week 9
Biggest Upsets of the Week
We know there are going to be significant upsets every week, but it’s always interesting to see where they occur. The table below shows the biggest model surprises of the week.
Week in Review - Notable Results Around the State
Region 1:
Wolfforth Frenship 46-44 over Odessa Permian, was 5pt fav, 62% to win - This was a must-win for both teams and Frenship came away with a huge win here which puts them in great position to make the playoffs. Permian is going to have to beat Central in Week 10 and beat Midland in Week 11 to have a chance at the playoffs, and that still may not be enough.
Euless Trinity 77-34 over Crowley, was 1pt underdog, 48% to win - Statement win for Trinity which gives them some momentum heading toward the playoffs. Crowley was undefeated and had been playing well themselves, but Trinity looked like Trinity of old in this result.
Boswell 16-13 over Weatherford, was 2pt fav, 56% to win - Boswell winning this one leads to a likely 3-way tie for 4th between Boswell, Weatherford, and Bell. In that case, Weatherford looks poised to advance by a single point in a positive-points tiebreaker.
Denton Guyer 24-18 over Allen, was 1pt fav, 53% to win - Guyer’s D came up with a late pick to preserve a great win for the Wildcats over an Allen team that was on a roll coming into the game. It was Guyer’s best performance of the season and it keeps in position to contend for the district title.
Region 2:
Tyler Legacy 34-31 over Royse City, was 2pt fav, 54% to win - Legacy clinches a playoff spot with the gutsy win and Royse City is eliminated. Impressive bounce-back for Legacy after getting beaten badly by Heath a couple weeks ago. The win makes their final two difficult games against North Forney and Rockwall simply excellent playoff preparation instead of must-wins.
Waco Midway 49-21 over Bryan, was 1pt fav, 52% to win - Midway clinches a playoff spot with this win, leaving Bryan and Hutto to duel for the final playoff spot next week. The Panthers can go into their final game against Weiss potentially playing for a share of the District Title.
Cy Falls 32-28 over Cy Springs, was 2pt underdog, 44% to win - Falls knocks Springs from the ranks of the unbeaten and takes over the top D2 playoff seed with a comeback victory. The four playoff teams now look set in 16-6A with Ranch holding the tiebreaker over Woods.
Region 3:
Katy Taylor 30-24 over Katy Jordan, was 15pt underdog, 17% chance to win - Shocker in 19-6A. Taylor plays their way into the postseason with this win and Jordan needs to win one of their last two to get in. The Mustang D has been playing great lately. Taylor making the playoffs, along with how the potential tiebreakers setup, makes Katy a virtual D1 lock at this point.
Shadow Creek 25-23 over Dawson, was 4pt fav, 60% to win - This one went to OT with Shadow Creek pulling out a great victory in a game that was tied 0-0 at halftime. Dawson led 10-0 going into the 4th, but Shadow Creek hit a game-tying 38yd FG at the end of regulation to send it to OT. It was exactly the kind of old-school battle that we expected between these bitter rivals.
Region 4:
25-6A - While Vista Ridge and Westwood won as favorites to keep them in the hunt, McNeil went out and blanked Round Rock 17-0 as a 17pt underdog! The computer now projects a 4-way tie between Round Rock, Westwood, Vista Ridge, and McNeil for 2nd through 5th, while Manor and Stony Point are still alive. Oy vey…
Dripping Springs 24-6 over Lake Travis, was 13pt underdog, 20% to win - Statement win for Dripping Springs as their defense suffocated Lake Travis while their offense pounded away at the Cavs with Jack Tyndall going well over 200 yards rushing. This was absolute domination by the Tigers.
San Antonio Roosevelt 36-21 over San Antonio Clark, was 7pt underdog, 33% to win - The win brings Roosevelt back into playoff contention as they now appear headed for a 3-way tie for 4th with Clark and Churchill.
San Benito 21-10 over Harlingen, was 6pt fav, 65% to win - The Greyhounds snap a 4-game slide against Harlingen, but it didn’t come easy. Harlingen led for a good chunk of the game, but San Benito’s quality won out in the end. The Greyhounds now rank just behind Cibolo Steele and San Antonio Reagan as the best Region 4 squads outside of the Austin area.
With all of the above playing out, how did it affect the new Top 50?
Week 8 Top 50
There were no major movers within the Top Ten, but Guyer moved up 3 spots to #12 following their win over Allen, while Allen fell 8 spots to #29.
Dripping Springs moved up 17 spots to #13 with their impressive performance against Lake Travis. The Tigers appear fully deserving of that ranking.
Euless Trinity made a big move back into the rankings, moving up 21 spots to #45.
And finally, Cy Falls moved inside the Top 50 as well; up 10 spots to #47 with their win over previously unbeaten Cy Springs.
As we often say, think of these as more or less approximations and less as being discrete definitive rankings of each team. Pay close attention to the Elo ratings out to the right and note how close or how far apart those are from teams nearby to get a sense of the tiering of the teams. And yes, some teams that lost are still above teams that beat them…we will see that throughout the year. It’s a feature of the Elo system that can be a little off-putting, even to us, but the system doesn’t try to overreact by design, which can sometimes lead to obvious underreactions. On the whole, it works really well, but it can break down a bit on too much scrutiny of individual, specific cases in a specific point in time.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!