TNG 2023 Division 1 and Division 2 Playoff Bracket Projections, Picks, and Analysis

A look at how the brackets could play out based on our preseason ratings

We’ve looked at our Preseason Top 50, our regional projections, and our Top 5 District Races to Watch. Considering all of that, let’s take a look at how the Division 1 and Division 2 playoff brackets could play out based on our preseason model.

In each of the brackets below, the percentages listed next to each team in each round represents their odds of advancing, considering their rating, their opposition, and their odds of reaching each round. The first round is straightforward and the percentages listed are each team’s chance of winning that matchup. From the second round on, the percentages to advance represent the cumulative odds based on each team advancing from their previous matchups and includes their odds of advancing from the matchup listed for that round. As the brackets progress, what you see are the “most likely” matchups given all of the various possibilities. For the state games, we had to calculate 1,024 different potential matchups for each one (32 different potential semifinalists, each having 32 potential opponents); the matchup listed is simply the most likely of those 1,024 possibilities.

With the groundwork laid, let’s look at how the 2023 6A Division 1 playoff picture could look (click bracket image to expand; once it opens in a new window, you can pinch to zoom in further or use ctrl + mouse wheel)

Division 1 Preseason Bracket Projection

This could be good news or bad news, depending on your perspective, but our model is showing little chance for anything other than a fifth heavyweight title bout between Duncanville and North Shore, with the model favoring the Panthers to come away with their second consecutive title. Out of 1,024 possible state title matchups, our model gives a 45% chance of DV-NS V, while the next most likely matchup, Duncanville vs Westlake, has just a 15% chance of occurring. If you’re wondering, the third highest odds go to a potential Lewisville vs North Shore matchup at just over 6%. While the end result of this year’s Division 1 playoffs may seem somewhat inevitable, the road to get there should be as entertaining as ever, with plenty of juicy matchups along the way.

Though last year’s first-round clash turned into a rout that launched Lewisville’s playoff run, another Lewisville vs Allen matchup this year looks like one of the picks of the first round. The roles will be reversed a bit this year, with Lewisville coming in with high expectations and Allen looking to make a statement. Another great projected first round matchup featuring a rematch of last year is Tompkins vs Ridge Point. The two played a 35-33 thriller last year with Ridge Point taking that one and going two rounds deeper before falling to Atascocita.

Looking toward the second round, another Lewisville vs Arlington Martin matchup seems highly likely, with our model giving a 77% chance of those two meeting again. Last year’s contest was a shocking 10-0 shutout by the Farmers, holding Martin over 40 points below their season scoring average. Another great looking matchup in Round 2 would be Rockwall vs Waxahachie, where the computer favors Rockwall by just 2 points. Cy-Fair vs Katy is another headlining potential Round 2 matchup. That’s right, the Tigers could be back in D1 with our preseason projection of 19-6A; if that holds true, the computer gives this matchup a 98% chance of occurring. The Cy-Fair passing attack against a young Katy defense would be intriguing to say the least.

Should Katy survive a tough second round matchup with Cy-Fair, the Tigers would face an old, familiar foe in the North Shore Mustangs. Based on the preseason ratings of each team, Katy would likely enter that game as a 17-point underdog. In our entire database going back to 2008, Katy has only been such a large underdog one time - the 2019 season opener at North Shore that Katy won 24-21. On the other side of the Region 3 bracket, Atascocita and Ridge Point look to reprise their game from last year that Atascocita won handily. With Ridge Point’s improved offense and Atascocita maybe being a notch below last year defense, could the outcome be different this time? In Region 4, a Steele vs Brennan third round clash would be a great one, with Steele looking to take back supremacy in San Antonio.

Into the fourth round, the model likes the following regional finals: Proper vs Lewisville, Duncanville vs Westfield, Steele vs Westlake, and North Shore vs Atascocita. Duncanville vs Westfield is probably the only game where anyone has a realistic chance of taking down the champs and that’s somewhat dependent of the development of the Westfield offense without P.J. Hatter. The Westfield defense that held Duncanville to 28 last year should be markedly better this year based on the experience returning. The only problem with that is the fact that you could say the same thing about the Duncanville offense. They’re all great games, but the other really intriguing matchup is Steele vs Westlake. Steele nabbed a couple of non-district wins over the Chaps in 2012 and 2013, but Westlake has won 3 playoff encounters since 2017. Our model gives Lewisville a 46% chance of winning Region 1, Duncanville a 79% chance to win Region 2, North Shore a 76% chance of winning Region 3, and Westlake a 63% chance of winning Region 4.

Now, let’s take a look at the Division 2 bracket…

Division 2 Preseason Bracket Projection

As was the case in Division 1, with how the brackets have laid out, we have an overwhelming model favorite featuring a rematch of last year’s title game. DeSoto vs Austin Vandegrift part II has the same 45% odds to occur as the Duncanville vs North Shore projection in Division 1. The next two highest rated odds for a D2 title game are DeSoto vs Summer Creek at 14% and Austin Vandegrift vs Southlake Carroll at 12%. Let’s dive into the bracket to see what may occur along the way to Arlington.

Scouring the bracket for the best Round 1 matchups in D2 was a surprisingly difficult task. DeKaney vs Willis is the best of the lot and a truly great potential matchup. Both squads will be absolutely loaded with talent and the winner of that game could truly go all the way to the regional final to take their shot at DeSoto. In fact, of all the teams coming out of the lower half of this projected bracket, Willis and DeKaney are probably the two that have any chance of matching up athletically with DeSoto. Willis and DeKaney are two of a whopping 5 teams that have double-digit odds to advance to the regional final, along with Harker Heights, Tomball, and Heath. Eagle Pass vs San Antonio Harlan is an interesting potential first round matchup, because our model gives Eagle Pass a real shot at winning that one.

Moving into the potential second round matchups we find a number of interesting possibilities. Cy Creek vs Paetow would be a great matchup of two teams who just narrowly missed the playoffs last year, with the winner moving on to the third round. Lamar vs Hightower would be an excellent matchup between two teams who could make a deep run. New Caney vs Klein Collins is probably the best potential matchup of Round 2 however. Last year Collins took Westfield to the wire in a 41-38 game a couple of weeks before Westfield had a real chance to defeat Duncanville. New Caney has real sleeper potential in this half of the D2 bracket due to their defense. The Eagles should have one of the top Ds in the entire state, but we’ll have to see how their offense develops to determine how big of a threat they might actually pose the frontrunners.

If Collins gets past New Caney, it sets up a great matchup with DeSoto. DeSoto of course would be heavily favored, but Collins could pose a threat with Sr QB Tucker Parks pulling the strings. The two met in the 2016 semis, with DeSoto winning 42-31 on their way to winning their first state title. The other most intriguing matchup of the third round would be a rematch of last year’s classic between McKinney and Southlake Carroll. McKinney really had Carroll on the ropes for much of that contest, but the Dragons pulled it out in the end. Guyer vs Byron Nelson part III is given a 66% chance of occurrence in the model. There will be lots of new faces in that one compared to the previous matchups, but it would certainly be one worth watching yet again.

In this Division 2 regional finals, the model likes the following matchups: Guyer vs Carroll, DeSoto vs Harker Heights, Dripping Springs vs Vandegrift, and Summer Creek vs Hightower. Guyer vs Carroll obviously would be a good one, but our eyes go immediately to a Dripping Springs Vandegrift meeting, which would be the fourth between the two in two years. Last year’s Drip-Vandy semi was an all-timer, with Vandegrift advancing on a recovered fumble with Dripping Springs attempting a sneak to win the game as time expired. The two will meet to open the 2023 season in Dripping Springs. Summer Creek vs Hightower would be an excellent game as well, featuring P5 athletes all over the field and presenting each squad a wonderful opportunity of reaching a semifinal and beyond. Our model gives Carroll a 54% chance to win Region 1, DeSoto an 85% chance of winning Region 2, Summer Creek a 58% chance of winning Region 3, and Vandegrift an 83% chance of winning Region 4.

As we’ve said throughout, these projections are all based on our preseason Elo ratings, so any movement once the season starts could change the outlook for any of the teams involved. What’s presented and analyzed here is effectively the “highest likelihood” potential outcome based on our analysis.