TNG 2023 Top 5 District Races to Watch
Taking a closer look at the most impactful, most competitive district races
Before we dive into the Top District Races to Watch, we thought we’d present how the districts line up in terms of average Elo rating of all of the teams comprising each district…
#1 District Race to Watch: 11-6A
Proj. Playoff Teams: Duncanville (Div1), DeSoto (D2), Waxahachie (Div1), Lake Ridge (D2)
Honestly, how could we possibly have any other district rated as the #1 “district to watch” when 11-6A includes both defending State Champions? It’s also our #1 overall rated district in the state in terms of the average Elo rating across all of its teams (see graphic above). And on top of all of that, this district also houses the most impactful playoff race of any in the state, capable of making a huge shift in the playoff dynamics for both the Division 1 and Division 2 brackets.
As was the case last year, the eyes of Texas are on Waxahachie. If the Indians make the playoffs as expected, then DeSoto stays in D2, but if they were to miss the playoffs, it would send DeSoto to D1 and create a huge power vacuum in the D2 bracket. Whereas last year the Indians were coming into the season on the ascent, returning a host of players from a solid team the year before, this year we’re projecting a slight decline for them this year based on what’s returning. Clearly, we could be off there and they may not miss a beat, but why that’s particularly significant this year is the fact that we’re projecting Lake Ridge to at least maintain their level from last year, and we think Cedar Hill is capable of making a big leap forward. Cedar Hill’s brutal non-district schedule could tell us quickly what they’ve got and indicate their threat level within the district. We’ve got keep an eye on Mansfield too. The Tigers surprised us last year and then played Waxahachie to a 1-score game.
As our district projection suggests in giving Waxahachie an 88% chance to make the playoffs, we feel good about projecting them in and sending DeSoto back to D2, but the implications are too big to ignore here.
#2 District Race to Watch: 25-6A
Proj. Playoff Teams: Vandegrift (D2), Round Rock (Div1), Cedar Ridge (Div1), Manor (D2)
While Vandegrift looks primed to distance themselves from the rest of the district in 2023, what plays out below them in the 25-5A standings will have massive repercussions for the Vipers and for the rest of the state. The same situation existed last year, but with having reached a State Title game and due to the talent that was inherited in the offseason, Vandy has a much higher profile coming into this season and their placement in the postseason will certainly move the needle for anyone in their path. With our current projection of Cedar Ridge returning to the postseason, Vandegrift would return to the Division 2 bracket and would be favorites to meet DeSoto again in Arlington. However, if Cedar Ridge were replaced by Vista Ridge or McNeil, then Vandegrift would be headed for Division 1.
Last season’s race for the final two playoff spots involved nearly the same group of teams and was so absolutely nuts that it took a miraculous comeback by Cedar Ridge (read friend-of-TNG, Brian Eslick’s fantastic recap here) to initiate a multi-level tiebreaker relying on positive-points differentials between Manor, Cedar Ridge, and Vista Ridge to determine who got the final two tickets to the postseason. Without the Cedar Ridge comeback, Vandegrift would’ve gone D1 last year.
McNeil, the team who suffered the incredible comeback, is one of only three teams in the district projected to improve from last year. Given that they had Cedar Ridge dead to rights last season, it’s not a huge leap to think that they could oust the Raiders from the playoffs this time around.
25-6A enters 2023 rated as our 4th toughest district in the state on its top-to-bottom quality. With projected places #4-#7 being separated by only 167 Elo points (about 7 points on the field), anything can happen.
#3 District Race to Watch: 19-6A
Proj. Playoff Teams: Katy (Div1), Tompkins (Div1), Paetow (D2), Jordan (D2)
While the #1 and #2 districts discussed on this list feature Top 10 teams that could potentially enter a different playoff bracket if small variances occur in our projections, the 19-6A race, as modeled, favors the #9 Katy Tigers returning to the Division 1 playoff bracket for the first time since 2019.
As we mentioned in our 19-6A preview, the biggest drivers for Katy’s potential switch back to D1 are the arrivals of the district’s two newest schools, Jordan and Paetow. We didn’t know what to make of Jordan’s 3-6 record against an outlaw schedule in 2021, so we started them out with a very (overly) conservative preseason rating, putting them dead last in our district projection last year. All the Warriors did was register the single highest Elo increase of any team in the state through the course of the season. We expected Jordan to become a factor in the district fairly soon, but we didn’t expect it to come this quickly. The ‘23 Warriors will feature the best offensive skill talent in the district, and with Cinco Ranch and Morton Ranch losing the biggest contributors to their recent successes, the timing seems right for Jordan to step in now and take their shot.
Paetow, conversely, came into the district with huge expectations on the backs of a 5A State Title, but struggled through a tumultuous season to miss the playoffs. Despite graduating a fantastic senior class, Paetow should be firmly in the mix this fall. Coach David Hicks stepped in midseason as an interim coach and earned the Head Coach title by bringing stability to the Panthers’ program which features talent the likes of which is seen in only a few buildings throughout the state.
In our projection, Paetow, Jordan, Cinco, and Morton Ranch are separated by only 149 Elo points, or less than a touchdown. As promising as the newer programs are, Cinco and Morton Ranch should be in it until the end. If Cinco makes the playoffs, Katy would be back in D2.
#4 District Race to Watch: 5-6A
Proj. Playoff Teams: Denton Guyer (D2), Prosper (Div1), Allen (Div1), McKinney (D2)
There’s no real drama foreseen in this district in terms of the playoff teams or who might go to which bracket; all of that seems well-settled before we even get started. The reason 5-6A is here is due to the sheer top-to-bottom quality of the district, featuring three teams with an Elo rating over 2000 and featuring the highest rated last place projected team of any district in the state. Any one of the bottom four projected programs here might seriously compete for a playoff spot in a number of other districts. In terms of overall strength based on average Elo, 5-6A ranks #3 this year just due to the teams at the very top having a bit of rebuilding to do this year.
It seems quite likely that Guyer and Prosper will battle it out for the district title again, but both are starting a bit fresh. For Guyer, they’ll start a without Jackson Arnold and Peyton Bowen for the first time in what seems like forever, but the cupboard is far from bare. The Wildcats bring back a solid core of experience and talent that should keep them out ahead of the district. Prosper is starting life with a new Head Coach, but it’s a familiar face in former OC Tyler Moore. Prosper has more to replace than Guyer, but they’ve been remarkably consistent no matter who they’ve had to replace in recent years.
Allen being relegated to the third paragraph of a district preview doesn’t seem right, but the Eagles enter the season on the heels of their lowest win total since 1998 after ripping off sixteen 10+ win seasons in a row. Allen could snap back quickly. They’ll need to to keep pace with the two projected ahead of them and to hold off a hard-charging McKinney program that could be even better than they were last year. Coach Marcus Shavers has the Lions playing great and after nearly knocking off Carroll, they got a taste of what they are capable of. This battle for the district title should be a good one and all four teams will hit the playoffs extremely well-prepared.
#5 District Race to Watch: 4-6A
Proj. Playoff Teams: Southlake Carroll (D2), Byron Nelson (D2), Keller (Div1), NW Eaton (Div1)
Rounding out our Top 5 districts to watch in 2023, featuring yet another potential playoff-altering flip, is 4-6A. Last season’s playoff race came down to the final week, with Southlake Carroll ultimately maintaining their D2 status, but there were moments throughout last season where Carroll to D1 was looking quite probable. Based on how we’ve rated the teams coming into the season, it looks like we’re in for more of the same this year.
We came into last season thinking that Eaton would be the team to ultimately keep Carroll on the D2 path, but it turned out to be Keller Timber Creek who survived a three-way tiebreaker with Fossil Ridge and Eaton to grab the final playoff spot. We’re taking Keller as a given to make the playoffs, and in that case, only Fossil Ridge has the ability to send Carroll to D1. Timber Creek and Fossil Ridge return similar numbers of returning players, but the computer is giving Fossil Ridge the slight advantage due to their recent history and due to their superior underlying numbers despite the fact that Timber Creek beat Fossil Ridge by three touchdowns last season.
If Carroll remains in D2 as projected, they’ll be favorites to reach the regional final where they’ll likely have a chance to avenge their loss against Guyer. If Carroll is pushed to D1, they’d be on a collision course with Lewisville in Round 3. Carroll fans would probably be just fine with that, but we wouldn’t advise any new Lewisville fans to look at the recent history there.
Bonus 5 Districts to Watch:
15-6A: This district is always worth keeping an eye on, but this year pay particular attention to Tomball Memorial. The Wildcats are projected outside of our playoff picture right now, but if they were to make it in, they’d move Klein Collins back to Division 1, where last year they gave Westfield all they could handle before falling 41-38. Collins in D2 as projected could give them a third round shot at DeSoto. 4th-6th in our 15-6A model are only separated by 45 Elo points; less than two points on the field.
9-6A: If wild unpredictability is your thing, give this Garland/Wylie district a look. For pure top to bottom chaos 9-6A has no equal. The top three are separated by just 91 Elo points and 1-8 are separated by just 278 Elo points. Part of that apparent parity could be attributed to the fact that we simply can’t see the finer details potentially separating these programs, but the same methods we apply to every other district yields little in the way of answers here.
16-6A: This half of the Cy-Fair district isn’t much different from 9-6A in terms of the balance across the district and the chaos that it breeds. The top three here are separated by just 48 Elo points, with 1-6 being separated by 373. The team we currently have projected to take the final playoff spot (Cy Woods) is just 6 Elo points ahead of the team we have projected in 5th (Cy Springs).
24-6A: Carrying on the theme of the previous two districts, the top three here are separated by just 27 Elo points while the three teams battling it out for the final playoff spot are separated by just 88 Elo points. Dickinson, Clear Falls, and Clear Springs battle for the district title should be a great one.
21-6A: Last but certainly not least, we have to mention 21-6A due to the sheer quality it possesses yet again, claiming our #2 overall district strength rating. North Shore, Atascocita, Summer Creek and CE King are basically locks for the playoffs and you can expect to see the top three playing into Round 4 and later again this year. West Brook and Humble are not bad teams, but having the four teams ahead of them doing what they’re doing leaves little opportunity for them to break through to the postseason. Perhaps a realignment year will provide some relief?
District of Doom. As always all eyes will be on those Indians from Waxahachie, that get both DeSoto and Duncanville at home in back to back weeks this year and has always played both close.
Great stuff - love the shoutout to 16-6A - all 4 playoff teams finishing with 5-2 district records last year was bananas. When's the last time you saw all 4 playoff teams finish with identical district records? Plus 5th place Langham Creek was just one game back, and 6th place Cy Springs I think was stil mathematically alive going into Week 11, that district was a nightmare to predict for pick'em, but sure provided tons of great games!!