TNG Blueprint: Week 7
Top Offenses and Defenses, plus underlying scoring metrics for every team
Make sure to check out the Team Grades feature released simultaneously.
You hear us refer to the “underlying metrics” quite a bit if you’re a regular listener of the podcast. These help us identify matchup edges in spots where Elo doesn’t provide the whole story. Now that we’re far enough into the season where sample sizes aren’t ridiculously low, we feel good enough to publish.
AOS (adjusted offensive scoring), ADS (adjusted defensive scoring), and DOM (short for dominance; DOM = AOS - ADS). These metrics look beyond simple points per game, point allowed per game, and scoring margin to consider how a team performs relative to what their opponents allow, and we’ve found them to correlate extremely well with a team’s overall season performance.
First, let’s take a look at the top 10 offenses so far in the 2022 season and how a team’s ‘22 performance compares to their performance last season, as well as their 3 year average. For example, Katy Cinco Ranch is much stronger on offense so far this season as compared to one year ago and their 3 year average. North Shore is much better so far than a season ago (scary), but right around their 3 year average.
Note: Unfortunately, we didn’t track past statistics for teams that moved up from lower classifications, so you will just see a blank when referencing those.
Next, let’s take a look at ALL teams on the line charts below. They’re grouped by district (see the righthand margin). This graphic makes it easy to see the changes in adjusted offensive scoring for this season (big, darker blue dot) as compared to last season (light blue, smaller dot), and their 3-year average (red diamond). Teams further right on the line posses stronger offenses than those to the left.
Teams that weren’t in 6A last year won’t be in the graphic below. To assess current season performance for these teams, use our TNG Team Grades feature.
The “current season” data points will move up or down each week based on latest results. As we get deeper in the season, they’ll steady out.
These values have also been adjusted for sub-regional strength based on actual results going back to the 2008 season to allow for like-for-like comparison across the vast landscape that is 6A.
Now that we’ve covered the offense, let’s take a look at the top 10 defenses so far in the 2022 season and how a team’s ‘22 performance compares to their performance last season, as well as their 3 year average. For example, Byron Nelson is dramatically better on defense so far this season as compared to one year ago and their 3 year average. Meanwhile, Katy is trending right where they’ve been for several years. Klein Cain dropped out of this top 10 this week after giving up 34 points to Klein.
Next, let’s take a look at ALL teams on the line charts below. They’re grouped by district (see the righthand margin). This graphic makes it easy to see the changes in adjusted defensive scoring for this season (big, darker blue dot) as compared to last season (light blue, smaller dot), and their 3-year average (red diamond). Teams further right on the line posses stronger defenses than those to the left.
As always your work is detailed and very informative. Love what you are doing especially with the little side bets that might take place.