TNG Bracketology: Area Round
Updated advancement odds for the 32 teams remaining in each bracket
This week’s installment of TNG Bracketology will take a look at the 32 teams remaining in each bracket and will present their odds to advance through the remaining stages of the playoffs. We’ll start with Division 1 and then will move on to Division 2.
First, a few quick notes about what you’ll see in the tables below:
The percentages listed in each column are each team’s odds to advance from that round of the playoffs
The tables are sorted in order of greatest to least chances to win State
The advancement odds are based on each team’s current Elo rating entering the Area Round; we’ll update the tables each week and the odds will change as teams advance or are eliminated
In the rounds beyond this week, the odds also factor in a team’s path to that particular round and all of the potential opponents they could face along the way. Some teams have lower odds than you might think just due to the path in front of them and vice versa
Finally, if you see your team listed with low odds, don’t worry! These are just based on the computer ratings of each team and can’t account for many factors that can, and do, decide games in the playoffs. We’ve seen a number of teams over the years defy the odds, and your team could be the next!
Below the chart for each division, we’ll specify the advancement odds within each region.
Click here for Current Division 1 and Division 2 Brackets w/ dates, times, and venues
Division 1 Advancement Odds:
Division 1, Region 1:
Best Game in Round 2 - Arlington Martin (2 pt fav, 55% to win) vs Lewisville
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Prosper 73.1%, North Crowley 19.9%, South Grand Prairie 4.6%
vs
Arlington Martin 46.0%, Lewisville 36.4%, Keller 13.3%
Odds to Win Region:
Prosper 45.4%, Arlington Martin 24.9%, Lewisville 18.1%, North Crowley 6.3%
Division 1, Region 2:
Best Game in Round 2 - Spring Westfield (3 pt fav, 59% to win) vs Klein Collins
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Duncanville 88.7%, The Woodlands 8.7%, Klein Cain 2.3%
vs
Spring Westfield 36.4%, Rockwall 28.7%, Klein Collins 22.2%
Odds to Win Region:
Duncanville 80.0%, Spring Westfield 6.3%, The Woodlands 4.7%, Rockwall 4.0%
Division 1, Region 3:
Best Game of Round 2 - Fort Bend Ridge Point (2 pt fav, 56% to win) vs Houston Lamar
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
North Shore 84.3%, Cy-Fair 13.7%, Dickinson 1.3%
vs
Atascocita 66.9%, Ridge Point 15.5%, Lamar 10.0%
Odds to Win Region:
North Shore 72.3%, Atascocita 17.1%, Cy-Fair 7.1%, Ridge Point 1.6%
Division 1, Region 4:
Best Game of Round 2 - Lake Travis vs Cibolo Steele - 50% odds for each to win!
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
San Antonio Brennan 55.8%, Lake Travis 22.3%, Cibolo Steele 21.8%
vs
Austin Westlake 97.3%, New Braunfels 1.5%, San Benito 1.0%
Odds to Win Region:
Austin Westlake 89.6%, San Antonio Brennan 6.1%, Lake Travis 2.0%, Cibolo Steele 1.9%
Division 2 Advancement Odds:
Division 2, Region 1:
Best Game of Round 2 - Denton Guyer (17 pt fav, 86% to win) vs Highland Park
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Denton Guyer 75.3%, Byron Nelson 16.8%, Highland Park 7.8%
vs
Southlake Carroll 86.7%, McKinney 7.7%, Dallas Jesuit 4.4%
Odds to Win Region:
Denton Guyer 54.4%, Southlake Carroll 36.4%, Byron Nelson 5.3%, Highland Park 2.6%
Division 2, Region 2:
Best Game of Round 2 - Spring DeKaney (6 pt fav, 66% to win) vs Cy Falls
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
DeSoto 70.1%, New Caney 26.0%, Rockwall-Heath 1.7%
vs
Harker Heights 71.9%, Spring DeKaney 17.3%, Cy Falls 5.8%
Odds to Win Region:
DeSoto 55.7%, Harker Heights 24.7%, New Caney 15.6%, Spring DeKaney 2.3%
Division 2, Region 3:
Best Game of Round 2 - Shadow Creek (3 pt fav, 59% to win) vs Summer Creek
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Katy 79.0%, Shadow Creek 12.7%, Summer Creek 6.9%
vs
Sheldon CE King 36.3%, Hightower 30.1%, Clear Falls 28.9%
Odds to Win Region:
Katy 72.9%, Shadow Creek 9.2%, CE King 5.5%, CE Summer Creek 4.5%
Division 2, Region 4:
Best Game of Round 2 - Harlingen (12 pt fav, 78% to win) vs SA Warren
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Austin Vandegrift 92.4%, SA Harlan 4.4%, Judson 2.3%
vs
Dripping Springs 83.2%, Harlingen 12.4%, Brandeis 3.1%
Odds to Win Region:
Austin Vandegrift 56.3%, Dripping Springs 40.7%, Harlingen 1.9%