Week 9 didn’t bring about near the chaos that Week 8 did, but there were some significant results that have some previously favored playoff representatives fighting for their playoff lives here in the last two weeks of the regular season.
Below, we’ll break down each district race, highlighting pivotal games to come, and we’ll project the most likely playoff representatives and potential challengers based on what we know today and based on what the model projects. We’ll update this feature each week until the bracket is officially set after Week 11.
Region 1 Projection:
1-6A
Current Projection:
1. Pebble Hills (Div 1), 2. Eastwood (Div 2), 3. Franklin (Div 1), 4. Eastlake (Div 2)
Contenders: Americas
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9, although Eastwood jumped Franklin in the district finish projection. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
For the second week in a row, results went according to the model projections, so no changes were made to this week’s playoff outlook, except that Franklin moved into the #2 spot in the district projection with their win over Eastlake in Week 8. Pebble Hills and Franklin meet in Week 9 to potentially decide the district title winner. Americas’ chances of making the postseason are slimming quickly. Unless Eastwood, Eastlake, or Franklin drops a game they aren’t supposed to, then, cruelly, it appears Americas will miss out by virtue of a 2-point loss to Eastlake and a 1-point loss to Eastwood.
2-6A
Current Projection:
1. Frenship (Div 2), 2. Legacy (Div 1), 3. Permian (Div 1), 4. SA Central (Div 2)
Contenders: Midland
Notes:
Permian came from behind to beat Frenship in Week 9, which has Permian, Legacy, and Frenship projected to finish tied with equal 4-1 district records, so we’ve made no changes to our overall projection. Central looks solid for 4th with wins over Midland and Odessa. Midland would need to beat both Legacy and Permian in their final two games to get in.
3-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Crowley (Div 1), 2. Boswell (Div 2), 3. Weatherford (Div 1), 4. Crowley (Div 2)
Contenders: Trinity, LD Bell
Notes:
Crowley was projected in the field last week, assuming they’d finish in a three-way tie for fourth, but they’re projected in 4th alone this week due to their upset victory over Euless Trinity in Week 9. Trinity is now projected to miss the playoffs, but they could play their way back in with wins over Weatherford and LD Bell in the final weeks. Our model has Trinity as a 2-point underdog to Weatherford in Week 10. If Bell could beat Trinity in Week 11, they’d be in the playoffs and Crowley would miss out due to Bell holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.
4-6A
Current Projection:
1. Carroll (Div 2), 2. Byron Nelson (Div 2), 3. Keller (Div 1), 4. Timber Creek (Div 1)
Contenders: Fossil Ridge, Eaton
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Eaton’s Week 8 win over Timber Creek kept them alive in the playoff race, but they are going to need some help. Eaton, Fossil Ridge, and Timber Creek are projected to finish in a 3-way tie for 4th and despite the loss to Eaton, Timber Creek still has the advantage in the case of a positive points tiebreaker between the three. As a result, no changes were made to this week’s projections, but Eaton and Fossil Ridge are still alive. Fossil Ridge’s best chance to get in would be to upset Keller in Week 9; the model has them as a 14-pt underdog.
5-6A
Current Projection:
1. Guyer (Div 2), 2. Allen (Div 1), 3. Prosper (Div 1), 4. McKinney (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
McKinney defeated Braswell in a crucial Week 6 contest that may end up being the deciding factor in determining the district’s final playoff rep. Guyer, Allen, and Prosper have established themselves among the state’s elite and will be playing for seeding, momentum, and pride with their playoff status unquestioned.
6-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lewisville (Div 1), 2. Coppell (Div 2), 3. Marcus (Div 2), 4. Plano (Div 1)
Contenders: Hebron, Flower Mound
Notes:
Even with Flower Mound’s upset win over Plano, the overall projection in 6-6A is unchanged for now. Although Flower Mound, Hebron, and Plano are projected to finish with 3-4 district records, Plano holds the positive point tiebreak advantage, keeping them in our projection for now. Plano can basically secure their spot in the postseason with a win over FM Marcus in Week 10. Hebron and Flower Mound would need to cause a major upset to get in at this point, but they’re still alive.
7-6A
Current Projection:
1. Highland Park (Div 2), 2. Jesuit (Div 2), 3. Lake Highlands (Div 1), 4. Berkner (Div 1)
Contenders: Pearce, MacArthur
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Pearce’s Week 6 win over MacArthur vaulted them squarely back into the hunt for a playoff berth, but they are still going to need some help. Berkner controls their own destiny, thanks in no small part to their Week 4 win over Pearce. Highland Park, Jesuit, and Lake Highlands seem sure-fire playoff teams at this point. A Week 11 battle between MacArthur and Berkner could send the race for 4th to a three-way tiebreaker between Berkner, Pearce, and MacArthur if MacArthur were to win that one.
8-6A
Current Projection:
1. Martin (Div 1), 2. SGP (Div 1), 3. Arlington (Div 2), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: Lamar
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
SGP defeated Arlington in Week 8 to move up to second in the district projection and send Arlington to third, but that didn’t fundamentally change the playoff projection as both remain in their seeds from last week. Lamar is still in contention if they can grab a win over SGP, Arlington, or Bowie down the stretch. Right now, Lamar is projected to finish just one game out of the playoffs, but they’ll be very light underdogs in each of those contests against the group currently sitting in the 2-4 spots.
Region 2 Projection:
9-6A
Current Projection:
1. Wylie East (Div 2), 2. Wylie (Div 1), 3. Naaman (Div 2), 4. Sachse (Div 1)
Contenders: Garland, Lakeview Cent., North Garland
Notes:
Every week we’ve posted a projection for 9-6A it inevitably changes the following week due to the parity in the district. Consider the above projection beyond Wylie East to be written with Dry-Erase marker. Wylie jumped into the picture this week with a big win over Naaman Forest. Wylie’s win combined with Lakeview Centennial shock loss to Rowlett now puts Wylie East into the D2 bracket, while Wylie is projected in D1. This one is far from over and we still expect this one to go down to the wire.
10-6A
Current Projection:
1. Rockwall (Div 1), 2. Horn (Div 1), 3. Rockwall-Heath (Div 2), 4. Royse City (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
No changes were made here except to drop Mesquite from contention with their Week 8 loss to Royse City. Mesquite is still technically alive, but they’d need to beat North Forney this week and beat Rockwall in Week 10, plus have Royse City lose to Tyler Legacy in Week 9. Right now, according to our model, the odds of all those events happening is about 0.4%. Heath and Horn meet in a great Week 9 game that won’t have much impact on the playoff outlook.
11-6A
Current Projection:
1. Duncanville (Div 1), 2. DeSoto (Div 2), 3. Waxahachie (Div 1), 4. Mansfield (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
The projections here didn’t change, but we did drop Lake Ridge from the contender line as more results have come in. Lake Ridge is not officially, mathematically eliminated but the combination of results that would have to happen seem too remote in possibility to seriously consider. This one is just about locked up aside from the final district positioning between Duncanville and DeSoto, but even that won’t affect the playoff seeding.
12-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harker Heights (Div 2), 2. Temple (Div 1), 3. Weiss (Div 2), 4. Bryan (Div 1)
Contenders: Waco Midway, Hutto
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Hutto so nearly achieved one of the upsets they needed to get back into contention in Week 8’s heartbreaking 31-27 loss to Temple. Still, the Hippos’ hopes are not dashed because they play Bryan and Weiss in Weeks 10 and 11. Midway squeaked by Copperas Cove to keep their hopes alive as well, and just like Hutto, they finish their season against Bryan and Weiss, but in Weeks 9 and 10. Weiss and Bryan are still favored for the final two spots based on their current Elos, but with games remaining against their key contenders, they are far from assured in their projection.
13-6A
Current Projection:
1. New Caney (Div 2), 2. The Woodlands (Div 1), 3. Oak Ridge (Div 2), 4. Conroe (Div 1)
Contenders: Willis, College Park
Notes:
With Oak Ridge beating College Park 35-7 in Week 9, the War Eagles have all but assured themselves of a playoff spot. If Oak Ridge beats Caney Creek in Week 10, they could lose to Willis in Week 11 and still be in via their superior position in a potential three-way positive points tiebreaker with Conroe and Willis. Willis must beat Oak Ridge in Week 11 to get in, or hope that College Park beats Conroe. Even if Willis beats The Woodlands in Week 10, they can’t afford to be tied with Conroe alone at 5-3 or else they’d lose out on the head-to-head tiebreaker. College Park’s only route to the playoffs now is to beat both New Caney and Conroe.
14-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westfield (Div 1), 2. DeKaney (Div 2), 3. Spring (Div 1), 4. Eisenhower (Div 2)
Contenders: Nimitz
Notes:
Eisenhower took care of business against Davis in Week 9 to just about ensure a playoff spot for themselves while knocking Davis out of contention. Nimitz is still alive, but must now beat both Spring and Westfield in the final two weeks to surpass Eisenhower; a loss in either for Nimitz will eliminate them from contention due to their head-to-head loss to Ike. DeKaney overtook Spring in the final district projection due to their win over the Lions, but it didn’t change anything with respect to seeding.
15-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cain (Div 1), 2. Collins (Div 1), 3. Tomball (Div 2), 4. Tomball Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: Klein Forest, Klein
Notes:
Week 9 was indeed the pivotal week that we expected it to be, but this story isn’t quite finished. Klein Cain took over the top D1 seed with their win over Collins and is now the likely district champion. Tomball Memorial grabbed a huge win over Klein to replace the Bearkats in our latest playoff projection. Memorial holds a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker over Klein Forest in the case that both teams win out and finish tied at 4-3 in district. Klein Forest is left hoping that Memorial slips up against either Klein Oak or Waller. Klein will have to beat Collins in Week 11 to have a chance to get in.
16-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy Ranch (Div 1), 2. Cy Woods (Div 2), 3. Bridgeland (Div 1), 4. Cy Falls (Div 2)
Contenders: Langham Creek, Cy Springs
Notes:
I’m sure everyone had Cy Woods dominating Bridgeland in Week 9, right?! Every week, this district never fails to surprise, baffle, and entertain. Cy Springs kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over Cy Falls, but is likely going to need to win out against Cy Woods and Bridgeland to get the job done. Langham Creek is still alive, but needs to beat Cy Ranch in Week 10 to stay in the race. Despite the Week 9 madness, the overall projection didn’t change except for the D1 and D2 first and second seeds swapped spots. We can’t wait to see what twists Week 10 brings to this incredible race.
Region 3 Projection:
17-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy-Fair (Div 1), 2. Stratford (Div 2), 3. Memorial (Div 2), 4. Jersey Village (Div 1)
Contenders: Cy Creek
Notes:
Memorial notched an enormous win, both in importance and margin, over Jersey Village to vault themselves into a great position to make the playoffs. The only way Memorial can miss the playoffs now is if Jersey Village beats Stratford in Week 11, which would likely put Memorial and Cy Creek in a tie at 4-3 in district and Cy Creek holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Jersey Village loses to Stratford, which is what we have modeled, then Memorial, Jersey Village, and Cy Creek would be in a three-way tie for two spots which would send Cy Creek home and would send Memorial and Jersey Village to the playoffs. If Memorial beats Stratford in Week 10, they’re in no matter what.
18-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lamar (Div 1), 2. Heights (Div 2), 3. Westbury (Div 2), 4. Westside (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Lamar and Heights are locks at the top of this district, while Westbury and Westside look most likely to take the final two playoff spots. Sam Houston and Bellaire still have a longshot to grab a playoff spot, but it looks increasingly unlikely based on their Elos.
19-6A
Current Projection:
1. Katy (Div 2), 2. Cinco Ranch (Div 1), 3. Tompkins (Div 1), 4. Morton Ranch (Div 2)
Contenders: Jordan, Paetow
Notes:
Week 9 came and went with no surprises, setting up a great finish to the 19-6A playoff race. Katy and Cinco Ranch are playoff locks, with the Tigers nailing down another district title through their Week 9 win over Cinco, but there are still a number of possible combinations of teams that could take the final two playoff spots. Tompkins is the most likely of the remaining group to make the postseason, but tricky games against Jordan in Week 10 and Paetow in Week 11 still remain, with both Jordan and Paetow still alive in the playoff race. Tompkins just has to win one of their final two games and they’ll be in. Paetow is playing their best football of the season and if they win out, they could possibly get in, depending on the outcome of the Jordan vs Morton Ranch game in Week 11. The winner of the Jordan vs Morton Ranch game is most likely in, but we won’t be able to say with much certainty until this week’s games play out, because of the potential for a couple different 3-way ties.
20-6A
Current Projection:
1. Ridge Point (Div 1), 2. Hightower (Div 2), 3. George Ranch (Div 1), 4. Clements (Div 2)
Contenders: Travis, Dulles
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Clements beat Travis in Week 7 to jump into the playoff projection for this week, while George Ranch held their spot with a win over Bush. With Clements joining the fray, George Ranch gets bumped into D1, while Clements takes the 2nd D2 spot, setting up a potential Round 1 rematch with Katy. George Ranch and Clements are in good position now, but can’t afford to slip up down the stretch or risk bringing Travis and Dulles back into the mix. Ridge Point and Hightower are locked into the top seeds in D1 and D2, respectively.
21-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Shore (Div 1), 2. Atascocita (Div 1), 3. Summer Creek (Div 2), 4. CE King (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
No surprises here; the top four are all but guaranteed playoff spots if they keep anywhere near their current form, barring a shocking upset down the stretch. The only remaining drama to be played out is just a set of great football games between the top four to determine Division 1 and Division 2 seeding.
22-6A
Current Projection:
1. Channelview (Div 2), 2.Deer Park (Div 1) , 3. Dobie (Div 1), 4. Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Channelview was elevated to the top spot in district with their win over Deer Park. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Channelview upset Dobie to move into the #2 spot in the district race, still giving them a shot at the district title if they can upset Deer Park in Week 9. Channelview’s win over Dobie didn’t alter the playoff positioning though, as they are still the top D2 seed. Pasadena Memorial could lose to Pasadena and still just fall into a tie with South Houston and they hold a head to head tiebreaker over them, so South Houston was dropped from the contender line. This one is basically set.
23-6A
Current Projection:
1. Shadow Creek (Div 2), 2. Dawson (Div 2), 3. Pearland (Div 1), 4. Alief Taylor (Div 1)
Contenders: Strake Jesuit
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Week 8 brought lots of changes to the 23-6A race. With Pearland losing to Dawson, not only did the Oilers fall from the #2 spot in district to #3, but they now need to beat Alief Taylor in Week 9 in order to avoid facing a potential elimination game in Week 10 against Strake Jesuit. A win for Strake against Pearland in Week 10 could see them through to the postseason despite their crucial loss to Alief Taylor in Week 8, which vaulted the Lions into a great position in the playoff hunt. Taylor now only has to defeat Elsik in Week 11 to be in the playoffs. With Taylor’s inclusion, Shadow Creek is bumped from Div1 to Div2.
24-6A
Current Projection:
1. Dickinson (Div 1), 2. Clear Falls (Div 2), 3. Clear Springs (Div 1), 4. Clear Lake (Div 2)
Contenders: Brazoswood
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
The district outlook was made quite a bit clearer with Week 7’s results, even if our model is now projecting a 3-way tie for the district title between Dickinson, Clear Falls, and Clear Springs. If it does end that way, it appears that Dickinson would win a positive points tiebreaker to be the top seed in Div1. Below that group, Clear Lake continues to look the most likely to grab the 4th playoff spot especially with Brazoswood taking a loss against Clear Springs. However, Brazoswood will get their chance to play their way in, potentially, with a Week 11 game against Clear Lake. Each of the teams in contention have tricky games ahead and these teams are pretty well-balanced, so there’s still plenty to play for.
Region 4 Projection:
25-6A
Current Projection:
1. Vandegrift (Div 2), 2. Round Rock (Div 1), 3. Cedar Ridge (Div 1), 4. Manor (Div 2)
Contenders: Cedar Park Vista Ridge
Notes:
Well, last week we outlined an incredible situation that could unfold, but only if Manor managed to beat Vista Ridge by 13 or more in Week 9 - Manor won by 14! As a result, should the most likely scenario play out where Manor, Cedar Ridge, and Vista Ridge end up tied with 4-3 district records with only two playoff spots to fight for, it now appears that Cedar Ridge and Manor would advance to the postseason via a multi-layer positive points tiebreaker, according to our model’s projections. However, if Cedar Ridge wins a 7th straight over Round Rock in Week 10, it would then leave Manor and Vista Ridge tied at 4-3, sending Manor home and Vista Ridge to the postseason via their win over Manor earlier. If that all weren’t enough to digest, if Manor were to lose either of their remaining games, they’d be out.
26-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westlake (Div 1), 2. Dripping Springs (Div 2), 3. Lake Travis (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
In Week 8, Westlake left no doubt as to their status with an impressive win over Dripping Springs, while Bowie hammered Buda Johnson to guarantee their playoff spot. The playoff seeding in this one is all wrapped up.
27-6A
Current Projection:
1. Steele (Div 1), 2. Judson (Div 2), 3. New Braunfels (Div 1), 4. San Marcos (Div 2)
Contenders: Schertz Clemens, SA East Central
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
After one week of district play, our model is still projecting the same playoff participants in the same order as last week. San Marcos did register an important win over Schertz Clemens to give them an inside track to that 4th playoff spot, while Clemens and East Central will have to cause some chaos and get some help to become factors in the race. Steele has distanced themselves from the rest of the district with their continued excellent play.
28-6A
Current Projection:
1. Reagan (Div 1), 2. Brandeis (Div 2), 3. Johnson (Div 1), 4. Churchill (Div 2)
Contenders: Clark
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
Churchill came from nowhere to beat Clark 24-7 in Week 8 which now has them in fantastic position to grab the fourth playoff spot in the district. The Chargers were 20-point underdogs! Clark will now have to upset Brandeis in Week 10 or hope that Churchill loses to Marshall or Lee to get back into the playoffs.
29-6A
Current Projection:
1. Brennan (Div 1), 2. Taft (Div 1), 3. Harlan (Div 2), 4. Warren (Div 2)
Contenders: O’Connor, Stevens
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
It was just too simple last week, wasn’t it? Warren threw a wrench in the works with their dominant 40-12 (!) win over O’Connor, which now puts things in motion for a three-way tie for two playoff spots between O’Connor, Harlan, and Warren. In that case, Warren and Harlan would be the two playoff participants and O’Connor would be out. If that weren’t enough drama, Stevens could toss that out the window with a win over O’Connor or Warren in the next two weeks. Stevens will be less than a two TD underdog in both. If they win both, they’ll be in. O’Connor will now need Stevens to beat Warren or would need Harlan to lose to Jay to get back in the playoffs.
30-6A
Current Projection:
1. Eagle Pass (Div 2), 2. Alexander (Div 2), 3. United (Div 1), 4. United South (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
After their Week 7 win over United South, United moves up to 2nd in the district projection, bumping Alexander to 4th. Del Rio’s upset win over Laredo Johnson in Week 7, put them in reach of a playoff spot if they can manage to beat Alexander in Week 10.
31-6A
Current Projection:
1. Edinburg North (Div 1), 2. Edinburg (Div 2), 3. PSJA (Div 1), 4. Mission (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
The top four in this district could go any number of ways, but barring any substantial upsets, there doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate outside of that group to challenge for a spot unless La Joya pops up with a sizeable upset along the way.
32-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harlingen (Div 2), 2. San Benito (Div 1), 3. Weslaco (Div 2), 4. Los Fresnos (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to the playoff reps or seeding after Week 9. Comments below from prior weeks still apply.
This top 4 is even further distanced from the bottom two than the previous district, with only the playoff seeding yet to be determined. Harlingen vs San Benito in Week 9 is shaping up to be a great one; potentially a battle of undefeateds for the district title. Don’t count out Los Fresnos and Weslaco, who’ve also had great starts to their seasons.