TNG Bracketology: Week 11
Breaking down the playoff scenarios for every district and projecting the D1 and D2 brackets
This time next week the playoffs will be set! Here, we’ll take a look at the most likely scenarios for each district and we’ll highlight important games to keep an eye on this week that could potentially alter the various races.
Below, we’ll break down each district race, highlighting pivotal games to come, and we’ll project the most likely playoff representatives and potential challengers based on what we know today and based on what the model projects. We’ll update this feature each week until the bracket is officially set after Week 11.
Region 1 Projection:
1-6A
Current Projection:
1. Pebble Hills (Div 1), 2. Eastwood (Div 2), 3. Franklin (Div 1), 4. Eastlake (Div 2)
Contenders: Americas
Notes:
This one is basically locked up, pending Franklin’s game against El Dorado. If Franklin beats El Dorado (they’re currently an 8-point favorite, 70% chance to win) then the field will be set as above. A Franklin loss would open the door for Americas to take the final playoff spot.
2-6A
Current Projection:
1. Frenship (Div 2), 2. Legacy (Div 1), 3. Permian (Div 1), 4. SA Central (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The projection above will become official as long as Frenship beats San Angelo Central (Frenship is favored by 10) and as long as Permian and Legacy take care of business as 3 TD+ favorites in their games against Midland and Odessa, respectively. Frenship will be the top D2 seed no matter what, but pending the Permian and Legacy results, D1 seeding could change. The four playoff teams are set, it’s now just a matter of final district positioning and seeding.
3-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Crowley (Div 1), 2. Boswell (Div 2), 3. Euless Trinity (Div 1), 4. Crowley (Div 2)
Contenders: LD Bell
Notes:
Trinity dominated Weatherford in Week 10, 52-20 to put themselves firmly back in the playoff hunt, but their work is not done yet. Trinity must beat Bell in Week 11 to secure a playoff spot. Our model favors Trinity by 11 and gives them a 75% chance to win. If Bell were to win that one, Bell would become the #2 D1 seed. North Crowley, Boswell, and Crowley’s spots and seeding are secured in any case.
4-6A
Current Projection:
1. Carroll (Div 2), 2. Byron Nelson (Div 2), 3. Keller (Div 1), 4. Timber Creek (Div 1)
Contenders: Fossil Ridge, Eaton
Notes:
Our projection of the past several weeks hasn’t changed, but now we’re down to the final week and there are two other scenarios that could play out; one far more likely than the other. The above projection will hold true as long as Timber Creek beats Keller Central (TC is a 12-point favorite, 79% to win). Should Keller Central pull the upset, then Fossil Ridge, via their earlier win over Eaton, would get in sending Southlake Carroll to the Division 1 bracket. The least likely scenario involves Eaton upsetting Byron Nelson (our model gives that a 9% chance) which would leave Carroll in Div 2 and would make Eaton the #2 D1 seed. Beating Byron Nelson is Eaton’s only way into the postseason.
5-6A
Current Projection:
1. Guyer (Div 2), 2. Prosper (Div 1), 3. Allen (Div 1), 4. McKinney (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With Prosper’s Week 10 win over Allen, the playoff seeding for 5-6A is all set as written above.
6-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lewisville (Div 1), 2. Coppell (Div 2), 3. Marcus (Div 2), 4. Plano (Div 1)
Contenders: Hebron
Notes:
Once again, our projection for 6-6A holds firm. In order for Hebron to break into the group above, knocking Plano out of the playoffs, Hebron would need to upset Lewisville (18-point underdogs, 13% chance to win) and Plano would have to lose to Coppell, as projected. Flower Mound could end up tied with Plano and Hebron at 3-4 in district, but they would lose out in that tiebreaker. If Hebron were to get in, they’d simply replace Plano as the 2nd D1 seed; the other spots are locked in.
7-6A
Current Projection:
1. Highland Park (Div 2), 2. Jesuit (Div 2), 3. Lake Highlands (Div 1), 4. Berkner (Div 1)
Contenders: MacArthur
Notes:
As was the case in 6-6A, the 7-6A projection hasn’t changed and the top three are locked into their spots. The only remaining item to be sorted out is the 4th playoff representative. Irving MacArthur has a chance to get in if they can defeat Berkner in Week 11, which would trigger a 3-way tiebreaker between Berkner, Pearce, and MacArthur. Pearce would seem to be out no matter what due to their heavy loss to Berkner, so it would come down to the final scoring margin in the Berkner-MacArthur game to sort out the final tally in a tiebreaker. MacArthur may actually need to win by double-digits+ to come out ahead in the end given that they lost to Pearce.
8-6A
Current Projection:
1. Martin (Div 1), 2. SGP (Div 1), 3. Arlington (Div 2), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
This is another projection that held solid for a few weeks and now looks completely set after Bowie’s decisive Week 10 win over Lamar, ending the Vikings’ playoff hopes.
Region 2 Projection:
9-6A
Current Projection:
1. Wylie East (Div 2), 2. Wylie (Div 1), 3. Naaman (Div 2), 4. Sachse (Div 1)
Contenders: Garland
Notes:
This should be fun. While Wyle East is locked in as the top seed in whichever bracket they end up in, and while Wylie and Naaman Forest are assured of a playoff spot, we won’t know for sure who’s going to what bracket until 4th place is settled. If Sachse beats North Garland and Garland loses to Wylie as projected, then Sachse is in and this all becomes very simple. If Garland can beat Wylie, they’re are in no matter what else happens and Sachse is out. Also, if Sachse loses, they are out and Garland is in regardless of their result against Wylie. If Garland gets in, then Wylie East would be bumped to Division 1. Beyond those possibilities, we could even see a 4-way tie for one spot between Sachse, Garland, Lakeview Centennial, and Rowlett.
10-6A
Current Projection:
1. Rockwall (Div 1), 2. Horn (Div 1), 3. Royse City (Div 2), 4. Rockwall-Heath (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With one week to play, this one is all locked up as noted above. Royse City clinched a spot in the postseason and clinched the top Division 2 seed with their Week 10 win over Heath.
11-6A
Current Projection:
1. Duncanville (Div 1), 2. DeSoto (Div 2), 3. Waxahachie (Div 1), 4. Mansfield (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
Duncanville wrapped up the district title and once again flexed their superiority over the rest of the district with their emphatic win over DeSoto in Week 10. Those two plus Waxahachie and Mansfield will look to close out the regular season establishing good momentum headed into the playoffs.
12-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harker Heights (Div 2), 2. Temple (Div 1), 3. Weiss (Div 2), 4. Bryan (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
This is another projection that has held firm for a few weeks and now looks all locked in. Bryan defeated Hutto in Week 10 to secure their spot as the second Division 1 rep. With all of the pieces in place, we can now look forward to the Bi-District round vs 11-6A
13-6A
Current Projection:
1. New Caney (Div 2), 2. The Woodlands (Div 1), 3. Oak Ridge (Div 2), 4. Conroe (Div 1)
Contenders: Willis
Notes:
The only thing left to be decided in 13-6A is the fourth place playoff representative - either Conroe or Willis. Even though they lost to The Woodlands last week, Willis can still get into the postseason with either a win over Oak Ridge or a College Park upset over Conroe (Conroe is just a 6-point favorite, 65% to win). If Willis gets in, it would send Oak Ridge to Division 1, whereas Conroe making the playoffs would put Oak Ridge in Division 2.
14-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westfield (Div 1), 2. DeKaney (Div 2), 3. Spring (Div 1), 4. Eisenhower (Div 2)
Contenders: Nimitz
Notes:
Westfield is locked into the top Division 1 seed, while DeKaney is guaranteed to be in the playoffs, but could end up in either Division 1 or 2 depending on results in Week 11. DeKaney is a 6-point favorite over Nimitz, who themselves are after a playoff spot. Nimitz can get in with a win over DeKaney or an Eisenhower win over Spring (Spring is just a 1-point favorite). Spring would be out of the playoffs with a loss against Ike due to their shock Week 10 defeat at the hands of Nimitz. If those two games play out according to the model, we’ll end up with a 3-way tie between Spring, Ike, and Nimitz, likely sending Spring and Ike to the postseason.
15-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cain (Div 1), 2. Collins (Div 1), 3. Tomball (Div 2), 4. Tomball Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: Klein
Notes:
As mentioned before, Week 9 did most of the sorting to get this playoff race nearly completely settled. Cain, Collins, and Tomball are locked in to their seeds and brackets as shown above. If Tomball Memorial takes care of business against Waller in Week 11 (Memorial is a 29-point favorite), then they are in the playoffs. Klein eliminated Klein Forest by defeating them in Week 10. In order for Klein to get in, they would have to beat Collins as a 22-point underdog and would need Tomball Memorial lose to Waller.
16-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy Ranch (Div 1), 2. Cy Woods (Div 2), 3. Bridgeland (Div 1), 4. Cy Falls (Div 2)
Contenders: Langham Creek, Cy Springs
Notes:
We’re keeping our projection the same going into this last week, but with three teams currently sitting at 4-2 in district (Woods, Bridgeland, and Falls) and two more that could end up at 4-3 (Creek, Springs) there are a number of seemingly equally likely possibilities. Woods only has to beat Cy Park to get to 5-2 and assure themselves of a playoff spot and secure second place in district. Likewise, Bridgeland could get to 5 wins and a playoff berth with a Week 11 win over Cy Springs, which is far from straightforward (Bridgeland is a 10-pt favorite, 75% to win). A loss to Cy Springs could send Bridgeland home for the postseason and could lead to a 4-way tie for the two playoff spots. In the case of a tie between just Cy Falls and Langham Creek for 4th, Cy Falls would go to the playoffs due to their head-to-head win over the Lobos.
Region 3 Projection:
17-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy-Fair (Div 1), 2. Memorial (Div 2), 3. Stratford (Div 2), 4. Jersey Village (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
Memorial defeated rivals Stratford in Week 10 to take over the top D2 seed and give themselves a shot at the district title in their Week 11 game against Cy-Fair. Regardless of the outcome of that district title bout, these teams are now locked in to the brackets and seeding shown above.
18-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lamar (Div 1), 2. Heights (Div 2), 3. Westside (Div 1), 4. Westbury (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
Like 17-6A, 18-6A is all settled as shown above. Westside beat Westbury to take over third in district, but it didn’t alter the playoff seeding.
19-6A
Current Projection:
1. Katy (Div 2), 2. Cinco Ranch (Div 1), 3. Tompkins (Div 1), 4. Morton Ranch (Div 2)
Contenders: Jordan, Paetow
Notes:
Our projection for 19-6A remains unchanged, with the top 3 spots, seeds, etc. virtually set in stone. There does exist a rather remote scenario where Tompkins could miss the playoffs still, but it would require a 21+ point loss to Paetow and a coin flip going the wrong way. Aside from that, the only thing that remains to be decided is the 4th place playoff rep, who will also be the #2 D2 seed. The two games that will determine the ultimate outcome are Tompkins vs Paetow (Tompkins a 17-pt fav, 86% to win) and Morton Ranch vs Jordan (Mo Ranch a 5-pt fav, 62% to win).
Here are the possible scenarios in order of likelihood, according to our model:
1. (53% chance) If Morton Ranch and Tompkins both win as favored, they are in
2. (33% chance) If Tompkins wins and Jordan wins, they are both in
3. (8% chance) If Paetow wins and Morton Ranch wins, Paetow and Tompkins are in
4. (5% chance) If Paetow wins and Jordan wins, then Tompkins and Jordan are in
20-6A
Current Projection:
1. Ridge Point (Div 1), 2. Hightower (Div 2), 3. George Ranch (Div 1), 4. Clements (Div 2)
Contenders: Travis, Dulles
Notes:
This is yet another projection that has held up well over recent weeks. Ridge Point and Hightower are locked in to their spots as shown above, while George Ranch has secured their playoff ticket but won’t know which bracket they’ll be in until Week 11 concludes due to Travis and Dulles still being alive in the playoff race. Clements is a 9-point favorite against Dulles in Week 11 and can secure their spot with a win. Clements would be out with a loss to Dulles, but Dulles’ fate would depend on their margin of victory against Clements to determine whether or not they’d beat out Travis in a potential 3-way tiebreaker.
21-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Shore (Div 1), 2. Atascocita (Div 1), 3. Summer Creek (Div 2), 4. CE King (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With a week to go, this race is settled aside from the final district positioning of Atascocita and Summer Creek. No matter the outcome of that game, the playoff seeding is set.
22-6A
Current Projection:
1. Channelview (Div 2), 2.Deer Park (Div 1) , 3. South Houston (Div 2), 4. Dobie (Div 1)
Contenders: Pasadena Memorial
Notes:
Well, last week we dropped South Houston from the contender line prematurely; we won’t make that mistake this week with Pasadena Memorial. South Houston’s improbable and dominant upset win over Dobie last week vaulted them into the playoffs. Though seemingly unlikely, Memorial could get in with a win over Channelview (19-pt underdogs, 12% chance to win), which would knock Dobie out of the playoffs.
23-6A
Current Projection:
1. Shadow Creek (Div 2), 2. Dawson (Div 2), 3. Pearland (Div 1), 4. Alief Taylor (Div 1)
Contenders: Strake Jesuit
Notes:
This one is set, barring a Strake Jesuit win over Shadow Creek in Week 11. Strake is a 33-point underdog with a 3% chance to win, according to our model. A Strake win would send Shadow Creek to D1.
24-6A
Current Projection:
1. Clear Falls (Div 2), 2. Clear Springs (Div 1), 3. Dickinson (Div 1), 4. Clear Lake (Div 2)
Contenders: Brazoswood
Notes:
Even with their inexplicable Week 10 loss to Clear Creek as a 40-point favorite in Week 10, Dickinson is in no danger of missing the playoffs, but they did shift to the #2 D1 seed behind Clear Springs. Brazoswood and Clear Lake have a true play-in game in Week 11 to determine the second D2 seed and final playoff spot.
Region 4 Projection:
25-6A
Current Projection:
1. Vandegrift (Div 2), 2. Round Rock (Div 1), 3. Cedar Ridge (Div 1), 4. Manor (Div 2)
Contenders: Cedar Park Vista Ridge
Notes:
We still seem headed toward the rather incredible second-level positive-points tiebreaker to decide the district’s 3rd and 4th playoff seeds, as Cedar Ridge, Manor, and Vista Ridge seem quite likely to end with equal 4-3 district records. Since all three are tied on positive-points in games between the three of them, we have to go to their positive-points tally among all of their district games. As it stands, Cedar Ridge only has to beat McNeil and they are virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs due to their standing in the tiebreakers. Manor is likely in with a win unless Vista Ridge somehow knocks off Round Rock. Manor is out with a loss to Stony Point in any case, and a Manor loss in that one would keep Cedar Ridge in the playoffs even if they lost to McNeil.
26-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westlake (Div 1), 2. Dripping Springs (Div 2), 3. Lake Travis (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
All that remains in this district is a potentially great game between Bowie and Lake Travis to cap off the district season. Playoff seeding is all wrapped up.
27-6A
Current Projection:
1. Steele (Div 1), 2. Judson (Div 2), 3. New Braunfels (Div 1), 4. San Marcos (Div 2)
Contenders: Schertz Clemens
Notes:
This is another district that is virtually wrapped up, but it should be noted that a Clemens upset over Steele combined with a San Marcos loss to East Central (<1% chance of both happening together) would put Clemens in the playoffs instead of San Marcos
28-6A
Current Projection:
1. Reagan (Div 1), 2. Brandeis (Div 2), 3. Johnson (Div 1), 4. Churchill (Div 2)
Contenders: Clark
Notes:
As noted last week, Clark’s best chance to get into the postseason was to grab a win over Brandeis in Week 10, but they weren’t able to get that done. Now the Cougars must hope for a Lee upset win over Churchill to punch a ticket to the postseason. Aside from that, this one is all set.
29-6A
Current Projection:
1. Brennan (Div 1), 2. Taft (Div 1), 3. Harlan (Div 2), 4. Warren (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With Warren defeating Stevens and O’Connor in Week 9 and 10, the playoff reps in this one are all set, unless Warren were to lose to Sotomayor in Week 11.
30-6A
Current Projection:
1. Eagle Pass (Div 2), 2. United (Div 1), 3. United South (Div 1), 4. Del Rio (Div 2)
Contenders: Alexander
Notes:
From last week: Del Rio’s upset win over Laredo Johnson in Week 7 put them in reach of a playoff spot if they can manage to beat Alexander in Week 10.
Del Rio did in fact upset Alexander in Week 10 and now just has to sweat out Alexander potentially upsetting Laredo United as a 10-point underdog in Week 11. If Alexander loses to United, Del Rio is in and the field is set as shown above.
31-6A
Current Projection:
1. Edinburg North (Div 1), 2. Edinburg (Div 2), 3. PSJA (Div 1), 4. Mission (Div 2)
Contenders: La Joya
Notes:
While this one has looked set in stone from the beginning, as far as the four playoff reps, La Joya actually has themselves in a position to play their way in to the playoffs with a Week 11 win over Mission. Mission is just a 7-point favorite and 67% to win.
32-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harlingen (Div 2), 2. San Benito (Div 1), 3. Weslaco (Div 2), 4. Los Fresnos (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
All that remains in this race is a great game between San Benito and Weslaco for bragging rights and momentum heading into the postseason. The seeding and playoff placements are all set.