TNG Bracketology: Week 7
Breaking down the playoff picture for each district and projecting the 6A Division 1 and Division 2 playoff field
With the model now well-calibrated to the action on the field (see Week 6 Performance Review), we can begin to peek ahead to playoff time. Below, we’ll break down each district race, highlighting pivotal games to come, and we’ll project the most likely playoff representatives and potential challengers based on what we know today and based on what the model projects. We’ll update this feature each week until the bracket is officially set after Week 11.
Region 1 Projection:
1-6A
Current Projection:
1. Pebble Hills (Div 1), 2. Eastwood (Div 2), 3. Franklin (Div 1), 4. Eastlake (Div 2)
Contenders: Americas, Montwood
Notes:
With Montwood and Americas notching huge upsets over Franklin and Pebble Hills respectively in Week 6, both have re-emerged as playoff contenders. There’s potential for a 3-way tie between Franklin, Eastlake, and Americas based on the Week 7 Elo ratings of each team. This one is far from over. The picture could change significantly if one or both of Montwood and Americas could pull another upset this week over Eastlake and Eastwood respectively.
2-6A
Current Projection:
1. Permian (Div 1), 2. Legacy (Div 1), 3. Frenship (Div 2), 4. SA Central (Div 2)
Contenders: Odessa, Midland
Notes:
No district games have been played yet, so these projections default to our current Elo ratings. Odessa and Midland both have started really well and could indeed challenge for a playoff spot. If the Bronchos get in, they’d tip the D1/D2 balance as they are the largest school in the district. Only Permian has really separated from the pack to date and just about anything could happen in spots 2-6. This one is wide open.
3-6A
Current Projection:
1. Boswell (Div 2), 2. North Crowley (Div 2), 3. Trinity (Div 1), 4. Bell (Div 1)
Contenders: Weatherford, Crowley
Notes:
We’re still projecting Trinity as a playoff squad based on their Elo, tumbling as it is, but they are going to have to win critical games against Weatherford in Week 10 and Bell in Week 11 to secure a spot while also taking care of business against Crowley, Paschal and Chisholm Trail. The Trojans have no margin for error from here on. The battle for 4th could well be decided in Week 7 as Bell plays Weatherford.
4-6A
Current Projection:
1. Carroll (Div 1), 2. Byron Nelson (Div 2), 3. Keller (Div 1), 4. Fossil Ridge (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
By knocking off Eaton in Week 5, Fossil Ridge is in prime position to claim the final playoff spot here. Carroll, Byron Nelson, and Keller have yet to lose a game and are locks, for all intents and purposes. The key thing to note here is Carroll’s Div 1 status, which will remain the case unless Fossil Ridge falters and lets Eaton back into the race.
5-6A
Current Projection:
1. Guyer (Div 2), 2. Allen (Div 1), 3. Prosper (Div 1), 4. McKinney (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
McKinney defeated Braswell in a crucial Week 6 contest that may end up being the deciding factor in determining the district’s final playoff rep. Guyer, Allen, and Prosper have established themselves among the state’s elite and will be playing for seeding, momentum, and pride with their playoff status unquestioned.
6-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lewisville (Div 1), 2. Marcus (Div 2), 3. Coppell (Div 1), 4. Hebron (Div 2)
Contenders: Plano
Notes:
Crucial Week 6 wins for Hebron over Plano East and Plano over Plano West have seemed to dramatically clear what was a very murky playoff picture. An upcoming Week 7 clash between Hebron and Plano could all but nail down this district’s representatives, especially if Hebron were to come out on top, as favored.
7-6A
Current Projection:
1. Highland Park (Div 2), 2. Jesuit (Div 2), 3. Lake Highlands (Div 1), 4. Berkner (Div 1)
Contenders: Pearce
Notes:
Pearce’s Week 6 win over MacArthur vaulted them squarely back into the hunt for a playoff berth, but they are still going to need some help. Berkner controls their own destiny, thanks in no small part to their Week 4 win over Pearce. Highland Park, Jesuit, and Lake Highlands seem sure-fire playoff teams at this point.
8-6A
Current Projection:
1. Martin (Div 1), 2. Bowie (Div 2), 3. SGP (Div 1), 4. Arlington (Div 2)
Contenders: Lamar
Notes:
Martin is the clear favorite for the top spot, as in years past, but places 2-5 could go any number of ways with Bowie, Arlington, SGP, and Lamar all fairly close in Elo. SGP finally got a W on its ledger in Week 6 and despite their 1-5 record they sport some pretty healthy underlying scoring metrics and appear well-suited to go on a run of wins. Lamar is going to need to spring some upsets down the stretch to get in, but they’re still alive.
Region 2 Projection:
9-6A
Current Projection:
1. Wylie East (Div 1), 2. Garland (Div 2), 3. Lakeview Cent. (Div 1), 4. Naaman (Div 2)
Contenders: Wylie, North Garland, Sachse
Notes:
Wylie East defeated Garland in what was likely the district championship in Week 6. Beyond those two, this district is completely up for grabs. Lakeview Centennial and Naaman do look like the best bets to make it, but Wylie, North Garland, and even Sachse are still alive if they’re able to spring some upsets. We may not know how this one will shake out until the last weekend of games.
10-6A
Current Projection:
1. Rockwall (Div 1), 2. Rockwall-Heath (Div 2), 3. Royse City (Div 2), 4. Horn (Div 1)
Contenders: Mesquite
Notes:
Rockwall is far and away the best team in this district and Heath is well clear of everyone else below them. Royse City, Horn, and Mesquite appear to be pretty evenly matched at this point in the season and it looks to be a tight race amongst them for the final two available spots. Royse City and Mesquite square off in Week 8, while Mesquite and Horn face each other in Week 7.
11-6A
Current Projection:
1. Duncanville (Div 1), 2. DeSoto (Div 2), 3. Waxahachie (Div 1), 4. Mansfield (Div 2)
Contenders: Cedar Hill, Mansfield Lake Ridge
Notes:
Mansfield took firm grasp of the race for 4th with their Week 5 win over Lake Ridge, but can’t get too comfortable just yet. Mansfield really needs to beat Cedar Hill in Week 7 to ensure their spot in the postseason, while either Lake Ridge or Cedar Hill would need the Tigers to stumble somewhere they shouldn’t. This one is pretty close to being wrapped up, but there’s still a glimmer of hope for the contenders.
12-6A
Current Projection:
1. Temple (Div 1), 2. Harker Heights (Div 2), 3. Weiss (Div 2), 4. Bryan (Div 1)
Contenders: Waco Midway, Hutto
Notes:
Oh how the Hippos may rue their upset loss to Midway, but their hopes are still alive…barely. Hutto will need to pull an upset or two of their own down the stretch as they’ll be underdogs in 4 of their last 5 games. The Bryan vs Hutto game in Week 10 could be a play-in game. Midway, perhaps strengthened by their brutal non-district schedule and buoyed by their win over Hutto, may produce another upset or two to find themselves in the playoffs. They’ll likely need to beat Bryan and Weiss to play their way in.
13-6A
Current Projection:
1. New Caney (Div 2), 2. The Woodlands (Div 1), 3. Oak Ridge (Div 1), 4. Willis (Div 2)
Contenders: College Park, Conroe
Notes:
While we currently have Willis penciled in to the playoff 4th spot due to their Elo rating, the Wildkats have an absolute must-win game in Week 7 against Conroe in a game that our model picks as a single-digit contest. Even with a win there, our model is projecting a 3-way tie for 4th place between Willis, College Park, and Conroe. New Caney and The Woodlands are the only two teams who look like locks. Even Oak Ridge can’t afford to drop any games in which they’re favored or else they’ll get pulled into a potential mess of a tiebreaker.
14-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westfield (Div 1), 2. Spring (Div 1), 3. DeKaney (Div 2), 4. Eisenhower (Div 2)
Contenders: Nimitz, Davis
Notes:
Eisenhower staked their claim to the final playoff spot here with a huge victory over Nimitz in Week 6, but they’ll need to keep their focus and not get upset themselves against MacArthur in Week 7 and Davis in Week 9. If Davis emerges and takes the 4th playoff spot, it would actually knock Westfield to the Division 2 bracket.
15-6A
Current Projection:
1. Collins (Div 2), 2. Cain (Div 1), 3. Tomball (Div 2), 4. Klein Oak (Div 1)
Contenders: Tomball Memorial
Notes:
With Tomball Memorial’s come from behind win over Klein Forest, their playoff hopes are still on life support. They’ll need to cause an upset over the final weeks and win a swing game against Klein to get in. Collins and Cain are quietly playing some of the best football in Texas and are all but locks to be the top seed in D2 and D1, respectively. Tomball, with their key Week 6 win over Klein Oak now appears in good shape to be back in the playoffs after last year’s great run.
16-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy Ranch (Div 1), 2. Bridgeland (Div 1), 3. Cy Falls (Div 2), 4. Cy Woods (Div 2)
Contenders: Langham Creek, Cy Springs
Notes:
Falls got a key win over Langham Creek in Week 6 to vault them into our initial playoff projection for this district, but this race has many twists and turns ahead. Falls, Woods, Langham Creek, and Cy Springs are all very closely rated in Elo and it’s going to take some time to see who rises to the top of that group. Cy Woods and Langham Creek have a critical Week 7 clash.
Region 3 Projection:
17-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy-Fair (Div 1), 2. Stratford (Div 2), 3. Jersey Village (Div 1), 4. Cy Creek (Div 2)
Contenders: Memorial
Notes:
This one looks nearly set, barring Memorial springing a big upset down the stretch. Cy Creek’s Week 5 win over Memorial will likely get them into the postseason. Cy-Fair basically wrapped up the district title with back to back double-digit wins over Stratford and Jersey Village.
18-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lamar (Div 1), 2. Heights (Div 2), 3. Westbury (Div 2), 4. Westside (Div 1)
Contenders: Bellaire
Notes:
Lamar and Heights are locks at the top of this district, while Westbury and Westside look most likely to take the final two playoff spots. Bellaire will play Westside and Westbury in consecutive weeks in both Week 7 and 8 and could play themselves in with an win in either.
19-6A
Current Projection:
1. Katy (Div 2), 2. Cinco Ranch (Div 1), 3. Tompkins (Div 1), 4. Morton Ranch (Div 2)
Contenders: Jordan, Paetow
Notes:
Nobody expected there to be this much intrigue in the playoff race here, but Morton Ranch and Jordan have played themselves into the mix, to their credit. Week 7’s game between Cinco Ranch and Jordan could have far-reaching implications. If Jordan is able to upset Cinco Ranch, the most likely outcome from there is a 3-way tie between Cinco, Jordan, and Morton Ranch for two playoff spots. With Morton Ranch’s win over Cinco, that would place the Cougars in a position to potentially miss the playoffs, sending Katy to Division 1. Morton Ranch and Jordan in Week 11 could decide both teams’ ultimate fate.
20-6A
Current Projection:
1. Ridge Point (Div 1), 2. Hightower (Div 2), 3. George Ranch (Div 2), 4. Travis (Div 1)
Contenders: Clements, Elkins
Notes:
Behind clear leaders Ridge Point and Hightower, George Ranch and Travis currently appear most likely to make the playoffs, but Clements and Elkins are not out of it yet. Clements has Travis in Week 7 to attempt to get back among the Top 4.
21-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Shore (Div 1), 2. Atascocita (Div 1), 3. Summer Creek (Div 2), 4. CE King (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No surprises here; the top four are all but guaranteed playoff spots if they keep anywhere near their current form, barring a shocking upset down the stretch. The only remaining drama to be played out is just a set of great football games between the top four to determine Division 1 and Division 2 seeding.
22-6A
Current Projection:
1. Deer Park (Div 1), 2. Dobie (Div 1), 3. Channelview (Div 2), 4. Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: South Houston
Notes:
Pasadena Memorial’s huge Week 6 win over South Houston vaults them into the final projected playoff spot. South Houston would need to upset Channelview in Week 7 to get firmly back in the mix, but even a loss there wouldn’t end their hopes. Deer Park and Dobie are the class of this district, yet again and will be the Division 1 reps.
23-6A
Current Projection:
1. Shadow Creek (Div 1), 2. Pearland (Div 1), 3. Dawson (Div 2), 4. Strake Jesuit (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With Dawson beating Alief Taylor in Week 6, this seems just about settled other than the seeding for the Division 2 reps, which should be decided in Week 7 when Dawson and Strake square off in what appears to be a true toss-up. Shadow Creek’s earlier comeback win over Pearland has them locked in to the top D1 seed.
24-6A
Current Projection:
1. Clear Falls (Div 2), 2. Springs (Div 1), 3. Dickinson (Div 1), 4. Clear Lake (Div 2)
Contenders: Brazoswood
Notes:
24-6A has been one of the most balanced top four/five of any district in the state so far, producing tight games every week. Clear Falls and Dickinson square off in yet another one of those in Week 7. With Brazoswood lurking, Dickinson really doesn’t want to start district 0-2 with the Bucs, not to mention and resurgent Clear Lake, still on the schedule. Our model has been playing catch-up to Brazoswood’s excellent play so far, but they end with their 4 toughest games of the year, beginning with Clear Springs this week. A B’wood win here could send everything below Falls into chaos.
Region 4 Projection:
25-6A
Current Projection:
1. Vandegrift (Div 1), 2. Round Rock (Div 1), 3. Manor (Div 2), 4. Vista Ridge (Div 2)
Contenders: McNeil, Stony Point, Cedar Ridge
Notes:
Round Rock has Manor in Week 7 and Vandegrift in Week 8 to determine if they’ll retain the district crown, with all three of those teams looking like locks for the playoffs. The race for 4th is potentially even spicier than the title race. There are four teams still alive with a real shot at the final playoff berth and we could get into some wild tiebreakers, potentially. Another interesting storyline to follow is if Stony Point or Cedar Ridge makes the playoffs, then Vandegrift would go to Division 2. Stony Point and Cedar Ridge meet in Week 7 and Stony Point has Vista Ridge in Week 8. Get your popcorn ready, this one’s just about to get good.
26-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westlake (Div 1), 2. Dripping Springs (Div 2), 3. Lake Travis (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: Buda Johnson
Notes:
No disrespect intended to the Week 7 slate in District 26, but can we just skip ahead to Week 8? Not only do we get Johnson vs Bowie in Week 8 to decide the 4th playoff representative, but we get Westlake taking their 46-game winning streak on the road to face one of the most impressive teams of the season so far, the undefeated Dripping Springs Tigers. Can’t wait!
27-6A
Current Projection:
1. Steele (Div 1), 2. Judson (Div 2), 3. New Braunfels (Div 1), 4. San Marcos (Div 2)
Contenders: Schertz Clemens, SA East Central
Notes:
With San Marcos being cleared by the UIL, for now, to compete in the playoffs, they do actually appear the most likely of the group including Clemens and East Central to grab the final playoff spot. Steele, Judson, and New Braunfels appear to be locks based on their play so far. San Marcos needs to win their Week 7 game against Clemens to give themselves the best shot to qualify. One other storyline to follow is that if East Central makes the playoffs, Steele would head to Division 2.
28-6A
Current Projection:
1. Reagan (Div 1), 2. Brandeis (Div 2), 3. Clark (Div 2), 4. Johnson (Div 1)
Contenders: None
Notes:
With Brandeis knocking off Johnson in Week 6, the Broncos appear poised to battle Reagan for the district title. The two will meet in Week 11, fittingly. Clark and Johnson seem to have sufficiently distanced themselves from any potential challengers making this one of the clearer playoff pictures in the state; these four are just about locks at this point.
29-6A
Current Projection:
1. Brennan (Div 1), 2. Taft (Div 2), 3. O’Connor (Div 1), 4. Harlan (Div 2)
Contenders: Warren, Stevens
Notes:
Taft flexed their muscles in a dominating Week 6 win over Warren, placing them firmly in the playoff picture. Harlan’s Week 5 win over Warren has them slightly ahead to grab the 4th playoff spot. Warren and Stevens are still alive, but they’ll need to cause some upsets down the stretch to get back in the mix.
30-6A
Current Projection:
1. Eagle Pass (Div 2), 2. United South (Div 1), 3. Alexander (Div 2), 4. United (Div 1)
Contenders: Johnson
Notes:
Eagle Pass is far and away the best team in this district and quite likely the best team in deep South Texas. United South, Alexander, and United, based on their performances so far, are looking like the best bets to fill out the remaining playoff spots, but Johnson is within shouting distance if they can spring a surprise or two down the stretch.
31-6A
Current Projection:
1. Edinburg North (Div 1), 2. Edinburg (Div 2), 3. PSJA (Div 1), 4. Mission (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The top four in this district could go any number of ways, but barring any substantial upsets, there doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate outside of that group to challenge for a spot unless La Joya pops up with a sizeable upset along the way.
32-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harlingen (Div 2), 2. San Benito (Div 1), 3. Los Fresnos (Div 1), 4. Weslaco (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
This top 4 is even further distanced from the bottom two than the previous district, with only the playoff seeding yet to be determined. Harlingen vs San Benito in Week 9 is shaping up to be a great one; potentially a battle of undefeateds for the district title. Don’t count out Los Fresnos and Weslaco, who’ve also had great starts to their seasons.