TNG Bracketology: Week 8
Breaking down all 32 district playoff races, complete with Division 1 and Division 2 matchup projections
After the initial installment of our TNG Bracketology feature, released last week, we had a number of key results come in across the state in Week 7 that shifted some of the playoff races and we’ll cover those for you here.
Below, we’ll break down each district race, highlighting pivotal games to come, and we’ll project the most likely playoff representatives and potential challengers based on what we know today and based on what the model projects. We’ll update this feature each week until the bracket is officially set after Week 11.
Region 1 Projection:
1-6A
Current Projection:
1. Pebble Hills (Div 1), 2. Eastwood (Div 2), 3. Franklin (Div 1), 4. Eastlake (Div 2)
Contenders: Americas
Notes:
Results pretty much went as expected in Week 7, so there were no changes to the playoff picture this week, except that Montwood is looking less likely to challenge for a spot at this point. There’s still decent potential for a 3-way tie between Franklin, Eastlake, and Americas based on the current Elo ratings of each team. Because of their shock loss to Montwood, Franklin cannot afford to drop any more games in which they’re favored without risking potentially missing the playoffs. Franklin is favored by a point against Eastlake in Week 8.
2-6A
Current Projection:
1. Permian (Div 1), 2. Frenship (Div 2), 3. Legacy (Div 1), 4. SA Central (Div 2)
Contenders: Odessa, Midland
Notes:
With one week of district play finally in the books, the only thing that changed from last week’s projection was due to Frenship’s win over Legacy, which moved Frenship into the #2 spot. Nothing changed in terms of playoff seeding however. Midland and Odessa, even with opening losses are not out of the race. It may only take two district wins to grab a spot and they are both capable of that. If the Bronchos get in, they’d tip the D1/D2 balance as they are the largest school in the district. Only Permian has really separated from the pack to date and just about anything could happen in spots 2-6. This one is wide open.
3-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Crowley (Div 1), 2. Boswell (Div 2), 3. Trinity (Div 1), 4. Weatherford (Div 2)
Contenders: LD Bell, Crowley
Notes:
Week 7 brought lots of changes to the projections here as Weatherford claimed a huge victory over LD Bell to take command of the race for 4th place. Weatherford’s win also served to push North Crowley into the D1 picture. North Crowley defeated Boswell in another great game to put one hand on the district title. Trinity got their first win of the year and is still projecting as a playoff squad based on their Elo, but they are going to have to win critical games against Weatherford in Week 10 and Bell in Week 11 to secure a spot while also taking care of business against Crowley and Chisholm Trail. The Trojans have no margin for error from here on. The model is projecting a three-way tie for the 4th spot between, Weatherford, Bell, and Crowley at 3-4 in district.
4-6A
Current Projection:
1. Carroll (Div 2), 2. Byron Nelson (Div 2), 3. Keller (Div 1), 4. Timber Creek (Div 1)
Contenders: Fossil Ridge, Eaton
Notes:
Last week, we noted that Fossil Ridge was in a good position unless they stumbled and let Eaton back into the race, but we did not see Timber Creek coming! With Timber Creek’s Week 7 win over Fossil Ridge, they now control their own destiny to claim a playoff spot. As such, Carroll is now projected as a D2 team which greatly strengthens the D2 Region 1 field. This week, we’ll see Timber Creek take on Eaton in a game that could get Eaton back in the hunt with a victory. An Eaton win in Week 8 would greatly increase the potential for a 3-way tie for 4th between Timber Creek, Eaton, and Fossil Ridge.
5-6A
Current Projection:
1. Guyer (Div 2), 2. Allen (Div 1), 3. Prosper (Div 1), 4. McKinney (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
5-6A was off in Week 7, so no changes here.
McKinney defeated Braswell in a crucial Week 6 contest that may end up being the deciding factor in determining the district’s final playoff rep. Guyer, Allen, and Prosper have established themselves among the state’s elite and will be playing for seeding, momentum, and pride with their playoff status unquestioned.
6-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lewisville (Div 1), 2. Coppell (Div 2), 3. Marcus (Div 2), 4. Plano (Div 1)
Contenders: Hebron
Notes:
Coppell crushed Marcus in Week 7 and now projects to finish second behind Lewisville in the district race. Plano defeated Hebron in a key battle which put Plano in pole position to grab the final playoff spot. Plano replacing Hebron also means that Coppell now becomes the top D2 seed. In order to get back into playoff contention, Hebron is now going to have to upset either Coppell or Lewisville in the closing weeks.
7-6A
Current Projection:
1. Highland Park (Div 2), 2. Jesuit (Div 2), 3. Lake Highlands (Div 1), 4. Berkner (Div 1)
Contenders: Pearce, MacArthur
Notes:
Pearce’s Week 6 win over MacArthur vaulted them squarely back into the hunt for a playoff berth, but they are still going to need some help. Berkner controls their own destiny, thanks in no small part to their Week 4 win over Pearce. Highland Park, Jesuit, and Lake Highlands seem sure-fire playoff teams at this point. A Week 11 battle between MacArthur and Berkner could send the race for 4th to a three-way tiebreaker between Berkner, Pearce, and MacArthur if MacArthur were to win that one.
8-6A
Current Projection:
1. Martin (Div 1), 2. Arlington (Div 2), 3. SGP (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: Lamar
Notes:
Week 7 saw Arlington take out Bowie to lift the Colts to the top D2 seed and #2 in district based on current Elos, but SGP is rising quickly. Bowie and SGP face off in Week 8 in an important game in which a win for either team will take them one important step closer to the postseason. Lamar is still alive, but is going to need to spring some big upsets down the stretch to get in. Spots 2-5 still look like they could go a number of different ways in this one.
Region 2 Projection:
9-6A
Current Projection:
1. Wylie East (Div 1), 2. Naaman (Div 2), 3. Garland (Div 2), 4. Lakeview Cent. (Div 1)
Contenders: Wylie, North Garland, Sachse
Notes:
Naaman Forest surprised by shutting out Garland 17-0 in Week 7 to shake up the standings for what certainly won’t be the last time in this very balanced district. Naaman now projects as the top D2 seed. With the loss to Naaman, Garland is now in danger of losing grip on a playoff spot and must win games against Sachse and Wylie to be assured of a spot. Lakeview Centennial still looks like the best bet of the rest of the group to get one of the last tickets to the dance, but Wylie, North Garland, and Sachse are still alive. This one looks like it will go to the final snap.
10-6A
Current Projection:
1. Rockwall (Div 1), 2. Rockwall-Heath (Div 2), 3. Horn (Div 1), 4. Royse City (Div 2)
Contenders: Mesquite
Notes:
As more time passes, Horn keeps climbing the ranks, and with their Week 7 win over Mesquite they’re now projected to finish 3rd in district, or possibly higher with a Week 9 game against Heath on the horizon. Royse City still projects as the 4th and final playoff rep from this district, but that could change very quickly as Royse City and their closest challenger, Mesquite, square off in Week 8.
11-6A
Current Projection:
1. Duncanville (Div 1), 2. DeSoto (Div 2), 3. Waxahachie (Div 1), 4. Mansfield (Div 2)
Contenders: Mansfield Lake Ridge
Notes:
Mansfield has beaten both of their primary challengers for the final playoff spot in the “District of Doom” and look just about set as the final playoff rep. Cedar Hill now appears unlikely to challenge for a spot and has dropped off the ‘contender’ line above. Lake Ridge is technically still alive, but they’d need to upset Waxahachie and hope that Mansfield loses to Skyline.
12-6A
Current Projection:
1. Temple (Div 1), 2. Harker Heights (Div 2), 3. Weiss (Div 2), 4. Bryan (Div 1)
Contenders: Waco Midway, Hutto
Notes:
Nothing changed with Week 7 action in 12-6A. All of the previous comments below hold true going into Week 8.
Oh how the Hippos may rue their upset loss to Midway, but their hopes are still alive…barely. Hutto will need to pull an upset or two of their own down the stretch as they’ll be underdogs in 4 of their last 5 games. The Bryan vs Hutto game in Week 10 could be a play-in game. Midway, perhaps strengthened by their brutal non-district schedule and buoyed by their win over Hutto, may produce another upset or two to find themselves in the playoffs. They’ll likely need to beat Bryan and Weiss to play their way in.
13-6A
Current Projection:
1. New Caney (Div 2), 2. The Woodlands (Div 1), 3. Oak Ridge (Div 2), 4. Conroe (Div 1)
Contenders: Willis, College Park
Notes:
In an interesting twist in the model, Willis’ crucial Week 7 win over College Park, which kept their postseason hopes alive, actually damaged College Park’s Elo rating to the point where now Conroe is favored to beat College Park in Week 11. As a result, and by virtue of the fact that Conroe previously beat Willis, Conroe now projects as the favorite to take 4th place, which sends Oak Ridge to D2. Willis is still alive however, because they’ll play Oak Ridge in Week 11. Should Willis win that one, we’d possibly have a 3-way tie between Willis, Conroe, and Oak Ridge for two playoff spots. College Park still has yet to play the current four teams projected in the playoffs and, in order to have a chance to get in, they would need to beat at least two of them, and they still may need help beyond that.
14-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westfield (Div 1), 2. Spring (Div 1), 3. DeKaney (Div 2), 4. Eisenhower (Div 2)
Contenders: Nimitz, Davis
Notes:
Week 7’s results didn’t alter the projections here, so the below still holds.
Eisenhower staked their claim to the final playoff spot here with a huge victory over Nimitz in Week 6, but they’ll need to keep their focus and not get upset themselves against Davis in Week 9. If Davis emerges and takes the 4th playoff spot, it would actually knock Westfield to the Division 2 bracket.
15-6A
Current Projection:
1. Collins (Div 1), 2. Cain (Div 1), 3. Tomball (Div 2), 4. Klein (Div 2)
Contenders: Klein Oak, Klein Forest, Tomball Memorial
Notes:
Just when you think you know what you’re looking at…
Week 7 produced two shocking results with Klein thumping Oak 31-3 and Klein Forest upsetting previously undefeated Klein Cain. Even in defeat, Tomball Memorial challenged Klein Collins. The aftermath of Week 7’s results leaves far too many possibilities to consider here considering how tightly-packed teams 2 through 7 in the standings are presently. Our model currently favors Klein for 4th due to their current Elo rating, but based on the underlying numbers, Klein Forest and Tomball Memorial may actually have a better shot. With the current projection, Collins shifts from D2 to D1. This is going to be a wild final four weeks in 15-6A.
16-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy Ranch (Div 1), 2. Bridgeland (Div 1), 3. Cy Woods (Div 2), 4. Cy Falls (Div 2)
Contenders: Langham Creek, Cy Springs
Notes:
Cy Woods came back to defeat Langham Creek in Week 7, putting them ahead in a very close battle for the final two playoff spots. Bridgeland’s Week 7 win over Cy Falls elevated them to 2nd in this week’s projection and they’ll take on Cy Ranch this week in what is likely the District Championship. Places 3-6 could still go any number of ways and they all have games between themselves in Week 8. Springs battles Langham Creek in Week 8 and Cy Woods plays Cy Falls in what is shaping up to be the most impactful game week of the district season for these teams. Only Cy Park and Lakes have played themselves out of contention at this point.
Region 3 Projection:
17-6A
Current Projection:
1. Cy-Fair (Div 1), 2. Stratford (Div 2), 3. Jersey Village (Div 1), 4. Cy Creek (Div 2)
Contenders: Memorial
Notes:
The notes below and projection above were both unchanged after Week 7.
This one looks nearly set, barring Memorial springing a big upset down the stretch. Cy Creek’s Week 5 win over Memorial will likely get them into the postseason. Cy-Fair basically wrapped up the district title with back to back double-digit wins over Stratford and Jersey Village.
18-6A
Current Projection:
1. Lamar (Div 1), 2. Heights (Div 2), 3. Westside (Div 1), 4. Westbury (Div 2)
Contenders:
Notes:
Lamar and Heights are locks at the top of this district, while Westbury and Westside look most likely to take the final two playoff spots. Sam Houston and Bellaire still have a longshot to grab a playoff spot, but it looks increasingly unlikely based on their Elos.
19-6A
Current Projection:
1. Katy (Div 2), 2. Cinco Ranch (Div 1), 3. Tompkins (Div 1), 4. Morton Ranch (Div 2)
Contenders: Jordan
Notes:
Cinco brought some stability to the playoff outlook here with their win over Jordan in Week 7 and with Morton Ranch holding serve by defeating Taylor. Tompkins and Morton Ranch have a big game on Thursday night in Week 8 in one of the last apparent opportunities for significant upheaval in the broader district race. A Morton Ranch win in Week 8 could open up a possibility for a 3-way tie between Morton Ranch, Tompkins, and Jordan for the final playoff spot if Jordan could then upset Morton Ranch in Week 11. If Tompkins wins this week, then just about the only thing left to be determined will be who wins between Morton Ranch and Jordan in that critical Week 11 game which would likely decide 4th place.
20-6A
Current Projection:
1. Ridge Point (Div 1), 2. Hightower (Div 2), 3. George Ranch (Div 1), 4. Clements (Div 2)
Contenders: Travis, Elkins
Notes:
Clements beat Travis in Week 7 to jump into the playoff projection for this week, while George Ranch held their spot with a win over Bush. With Clements joining the fray, George Ranch gets bumped into D1, while Clements takes the 2nd D2 spot, setting up a potential Round 1 rematch with Katy. George Ranch and Clements are in good position now, but can’t afford to slip up down the stretch or risk bringing Travis and Elkins back into the mix. Ridge Point and Hightower are locked into the top seeds in D1 and D2, respectively.
21-6A
Current Projection:
1. North Shore (Div 1), 2. Atascocita (Div 1), 3. Summer Creek (Div 2), 4. CE King (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
Week 7’s results didn’t change anything for the outlook in 21-6A.
No surprises here; the top four are all but guaranteed playoff spots if they keep anywhere near their current form, barring a shocking upset down the stretch. The only remaining drama to be played out is just a set of great football games between the top four to determine Division 1 and Division 2 seeding.
22-6A
Current Projection:
1. Deer Park (Div 1), 2. Dobie (Div 1), 3. Channelview (Div 2), 4. Memorial (Div 2)
Contenders: South Houston
Notes:
Pasadena Memorial’s huge Week 6 win over South Houston vaults them into the final projected playoff spot in our model projection. Channelview claimed a key win over South Houston in Week 7 to solidify their current projection. Deer Park and Dobie are the class of this district, yet again and will be the Division 1 reps.
23-6A
Current Projection:
1. Shadow Creek (Div 1), 2. Pearland (Div 1), 3. Dawson (Div 2), 4. Strake Jesuit (Div 2)
Contenders: Alief Taylor
Notes:
With Dawson beating Alief Taylor in Week 6, the Lions best and possibly last shot to get back into contention is this week when they take on Strake Jesuit. With a win there, Alief Taylor would be the odds-on favorite to take 4th, which would then send Shadow Creek to D2. Dawson faces Pearland in Week 8, still with a shot at the district title if they win. Dawson then has Shadow Creek in Week 9.
24-6A
Current Projection:
1. Dickinson (Div 1), 2. Clear Falls (Div 2), 3. Clear Springs (Div 1), 4. Clear Lake (Div 2)
Contenders: Brazoswood
Notes:
The district outlook was made quite a bit clearer with Week 7’s results, even if our model is now projecting a 3-way tie for the district title between Dickinson, Clear Falls, and Clear Springs. If it does end that way, it appears that Dickinson would win a positive points tiebreaker to be declared the official champion. Below that group, Clear Lake continues to look the most likely to grab the 4th playoff spot especially with Brazoswood taking a loss against Clear Springs. However, Brazoswood will get their chance to play their way in, potentially, with a Week 11 game against Clear Lake. Each of the teams in contention have tricky games ahead and these teams are pretty well-balanced, so there’s still plenty to play for.
Region 4 Projection:
25-6A
Current Projection:
1. Vandegrift (Div 1), 2. Round Rock (Div 1), 3. Manor (Div 2), 4. Vista Ridge (Div 2)
Contenders: McNeil, Stony Point, Cedar Ridge
Notes:
Round Rock and Vandegrift meet in Week 8 in one of the games of the year statewide. The Dragons and Vipers will not only battle for the district crown, but could be at the same time deciding who will/won’t play Westlake in Round 1, with the loser potentially drawing the Chaps first. However, action down the table could mean that Vandegrift is destined for the Division 2 bracket, missing Westlake altogether. Vista Ridge plays Stony Point in Week 8 and needs a win to keep Cedar Ridge at arms length in the race for 4th. If Cedar Ridge can defeat Manor in Week 8 and Stony Point beats Vista Ridge, then Cedar Ridge would be back in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth which would mean that Vandegrift would head to D2. The model still likes Vista Ridge to eek out the 4th spot.
26-6A
Current Projection:
1. Westlake (Div 1), 2. Dripping Springs (Div 2), 3. Lake Travis (Div 1), 4. Bowie (Div 2)
Contenders: Buda Johnson
Notes:
We finally made it to THE pivotal week in the 26-6A season.
Not only do we get Johnson vs Bowie in Week 8 to decide the 4th playoff representative, but we get Westlake taking their 46-game winning streak on the road to face one of the most impressive teams of the season so far, the undefeated Dripping Springs Tigers. It simply doesn’t get much better than this. Enjoy some early playoff-quality football with plenty on the line.
27-6A
Current Projection:
1. Steele (Div 1), 2. Judson (Div 2), 3. New Braunfels (Div 1), 4. San Marcos (Div 2)
Contenders: Schertz Clemens, SA East Central
Notes:
After one week of district play, our model is still projecting the same playoff participants in the same order as last week. San Marcos did register an important win over Schertz Clemens to give them an inside track to that 4th playoff spot, while Clemens and East Central will have to cause some chaos and get some help to become factors in the race. Steele has distanced themselves from the rest of the district with their continued excellent play.
28-6A
Current Projection:
1. Reagan (Div 1), 2. Brandeis (Div 2), 3. Johnson (Div 1), 4. Clark (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
The only thing that changed in this outlook from Week 7 was Johnson moving into 3rd spot with their win over Clark.
With Brandeis knocking off Johnson in Week 6, the Broncos appear poised to battle Reagan for the district title. The two will meet in Week 11, fittingly. Clark and Johnson seem to have sufficiently distanced themselves from any potential challengers making this one of the clearer playoff pictures in the state; these four are just about locks at this point.
29-6A
Current Projection:
1. Brennan (Div 1), 2. Taft (Div 2), 3. O’Connor (Div 1), 4. Harlan (Div 2)
Contenders: Warren, Stevens
Notes:
No changes to this district’s outlook following Week 7.
Taft flexed their muscles in a dominating Week 6 win over Warren, placing them firmly in the playoff picture. Harlan’s Week 5 win over Warren has them slightly ahead to grab the 4th playoff spot. Warren and Stevens are still alive, but they’ll need to cause some upsets down the stretch to get back in the mix.
30-6A
Current Projection:
1. Eagle Pass (Div 2), 2. United (Div 1), 3. United South (Div 1), 4. Alexander (Div 2)
Contenders: Del Rio
Notes:
After their Week 7 win over United South, United moves up to 2nd in the district projection, bumping Alexander to 4th. Del Rio’s upset win over Laredo Johnson in Week 7, put them in reach of a playoff spot if they can manage to beat Alexander in Week 10.
31-6A
Current Projection:
1. Edinburg North (Div 1), 2. Edinburg (Div 2), 3. PSJA (Div 1), 4. Mission (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to this district’s outlook following Week 7.
The top four in this district could go any number of ways, but barring any substantial upsets, there doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate outside of that group to challenge for a spot unless La Joya pops up with a sizeable upset along the way.
32-6A
Current Projection:
1. Harlingen (Div 2), 2. San Benito (Div 1), 3. Los Fresnos (Div 1), 4. Weslaco (Div 2)
Contenders: None
Notes:
No changes to this one after Week 7 either. Above and below still holds true.
This top 4 is even further distanced from the bottom two than the previous district, with only the playoff seeding yet to be determined. Harlingen vs San Benito in Week 9 is shaping up to be a great one; potentially a battle of undefeateds for the district title. Don’t count out Los Fresnos and Weslaco, who’ve also had great starts to their seasons.