Yet again, it’s a similar story this week as it has been the past several weeks, with the top end of the rankings remaining unchanged while there was plenty of movement from #12 on down.
This week, #13 through #21 are separated by less than 75 Elo points, which is equivalent to roughly a field goal. #18 to #50 are separated by less than two touchdowns. Any two teams within those kind of margins could beat one another on any given day.
Remember, in an Elo ratings system, teams are not docked at all if they win, but the amount of points they gain will be less if they underperform relative to their expected margin of victory. At the same time, teams that lose cannot gain Elo points. Much of the movement that we see in the rankings is just due to teams’ gains or losses relative to those around them.
Here are the main takeaways from the new set of rankings:
Top 11 held steady following bye weeks or by performing to expectations
Both Austin Vandegrift and Cy Fair moved up 5+ spots and into the top 15 following wins that beat model expectations against quality teams
Clear Falls made an 11 spot jump up the rankings to #31 following their 21-14 win over previously #32 Clear Springs
Lewisville, riding their strong defense, moved up 9 spots following their 38-3 win over Coppell. They came in as only 4 point favorites and crushed those expectations winning by 35. Strong performance.
Without further ado, here’s the new TNG Top 50 for Week 7: