Top 5 6A District Races to Watch in '22
Previewing the five most compelling and most impactful district races, plus five others worth tracking
In continuation of our 2022 6A Season Preview series, today we’re going to take a look at the Top 5 District Races to Watch, and we’ll give you 5 others to keep an eye on. The ratings referenced below were derived from our TNG Ratings model, which you can read more about here.
#1 District Race to Watch: 21-6A
Projected Playoff Teams: North Shore (D1), Summer Creek (Div2), Atascocita (D1), CE King (Div2)
Fans and residents on Houston’s (B)East side will once again be treated to an incredibly high level of football being played week in and week out in this absolute juggernaut of a district. North Shore, Summer Creek, Atascocita, and CE King all rate above the 2000 barrier in our preseason Elo ratings; 27 of the remaining 31 districts feature either 1 or 0 teams rated above the 2000 mark. To drive the point home even further, CE King, who we have projected to finish 4th in the district, is rated our #17 team in the state. For sheer quality across the 4 playoff spots available, 21-6A quite simply has no rival.
North Shore is firmly established as a perennial State Title contender and Atascocita is easily a Top 5 program in the Houston area. It would be no surprise at all, even in a strong year for Region 3, to see those two battling it out for Division 1 Region 3 supremacy again this December. However, given North Shore’s dominance and the strength of their returning squad, it would be nothing less than a seismic upset to see anyone but the Mustangs representing Region 3 in Round 5.
Summer Creek and CE King, meanwhile, are two of the most impressive up-and-coming programs in the entire state and both return plenty of experience and high-end talent from last year’s 10-win squads. Given their recent rise and their quality, it wouldn’t be all that shocking to see the two of them squaring off for a Semifinal berth in Division 2.
#2 District Race to Watch: 11-6A
Projected Playoff Teams: Duncanville (D1), DeSoto (Div2), Cedar Hill (Div2), Waxahachie (D1)
Although the top two places are a virtual lock before a snap is taken, the race in 11-6A has statewide implications. Duncanville and DeSoto are no surprises as the projected top two teams in the district, with preseason rankings of #3 and #4 in the state, but what happens further down the table will determine whether both end up competing for the Division 1 crown, or if DeSoto actually ends up in Division 2. As we have it projected currently, Waxahachie looks like the favorite for the 4th and final playoff spot which would indeed push DeSoto to the Division 2 bracket.
The implications of DeSoto in Division 2 are enormous. In Division 1, DeSoto would likely be second-favorites in Region 2, just behind district rivals Duncanville, but would also potentially face stiff competition from The Woodlands, Temple, and Westfield. In Division 2, DeSoto would be the clear favorites in the region; right now a theoretical 25 point favorite above our next highest rated team projected in that bracket, Klein Collins.
Mansfield Lake Ridge looks like the top contender to challenge Waxahachie for that 4th spot in 11-6A. If Lake Ridge’s defense could improve enough to complement their offense, it would send DeSoto to Division 1, leaving a massive power vacuum in Division 2 Region 2. However, if Waxahachie can ride their defense and an improving offense to a playoff berth, DeSoto will be an immediate favorite for State in Division 2. Watch this one closely.
#3 District Race to Watch: 26-6A
Projected Playoff Teams: Austin Westlake (D1), Lake Travis (D1), Dripping Springs (Div2), Buda Johnson (Div2)
Yes, that’s right, the district that includes the indomitable Austin Westlake Chaparrals features one of the most fascinating district races in all of Texas. Make no mistake, the Chaps are overwhelming favorites to take the district crown, and to complete a historic 4-peat (!). Meanwhile, Lake Travis is an easy pick for second place as the Cavs look poised for yet another deep run. So where’s the intrigue? With the updated enrollment figures and the quality of the new teams joining Westlake and Lake Travis, it appears highly likely that Westlake will return to the Division 1 playoff bracket, opening the door for anyone destined for Division 2.
The only way for Westlake to return to Division 2 this year would be for Del Valle to make the playoffs. Currently, we have them projected to finish 7th due to the strength of the district newcomers, not to mention Austin Bowie, who rates as one of our top teams in the state not projected to make the playoffs. The Dawgs will absolutely factor in the playoff race and appear well clear of Del Valle, currently checking in 650 Elo rating points (approximately a 26-point favorite) ahead of the Cardinals.
Pushing Bowie out of the playoffs in our model are newcomers Dripping Springs and Buda Johnson. Dripping Springs ranks as our Preseason #18 team in the state after finishing 10-1 last year. The Tigers feature what could be one of the best offenses in the state, with 9 returning All-District players from an offense that scored 52 ppg in their last season in 5A. Buda Johnson finished 9-2 last year, but sustained much heavier graduation losses than Dripping Springs. The race between the Dawgs and Jaguars for 4th will likely come down to which of Bowie’s defense and Johnson’s offense is stronger.
#4 District Race to Watch: 5-6A
Projected Playoff Teams: Denton Guyer (Div2), Allen (D1), Prosper (D1), Denton Braswell (Div2)
On the northern edge of the Metroplex is where we find the district that ranks #1 in the state overall in top-to-bottom quality, according to our model. Denton Guyer and Allen are the obvious favorites to grab the top two spots, ranked #6 and #11 in the state. Guyer put up a valiant effort in their battle against Westlake in last year’s Division 2 State Final and returns the best QB in the state and 6 starters on defense, including arguably the best secondary in the state. As good as the Wildcats will be, they will still face stiff competition from within their own district. Allen, despite a late coaching change and despite losing one of the best defensive talents in the nation to a transfer, is well-suited to mount a strong challenge in the district and another deep playoff run.
While Guyer and Allen, perhaps rightly, grab the majority of the headlines, the Prosper Eagles, our #16 team in the State, are not far behind them. In fact, Prosper beat Allen in the regular season last year and lost by just 3 to Denton Guyer in the Division 2 Region 1 Final. It was the second year in a row that Guyer and Prosper met in the 4th round and in three of their last four meetings, the games have been decided by less than 6 points. Upon joining 6A in 2018, Prosper went two rounds deep in the playoffs and has only built on that, reaching the 4th round each of the last 3 years in a row. With Prosper and Allen now entrenched as the Division 1 representatives, and because Prosper knows they can beat Allen, it could very well be the green Eagles representing Region 1 in the State semis.
Denton Braswell is perhaps a surprise pick to finish 4th here, but their underlying numbers last year weren’t bad at all and they return more key pieces than the rest of the playoff contenders. McKinney and Boyd appear to be the closest challengers to Braswell. Boyd had been on a nice upward trajectory, but heavy graduation losses could see them out of the mix. Prosper Rock Hill and Little Elm round out the district and while they won’t likely compete for a playoff spot, they could play spoiler to anyone attempting to grab that 4th and final spot.
#5 District Race to Watch: 4-6A
Projected Playoff Teams: Southlake Carroll (Div2), Byron Nelson (Div2), Keller (D1), Northwest Eaton (D1)
The headliner here is obviously Southlake Carroll and, with the new realignment, the Dragons appear headed toward the Division 2 bracket, meaning they will more than likely avoid Duncanville in the playoffs. If not for Duncanville, who knocked the Dragons out of the playoffs three of the last four years, Carroll could be on a four year run of State Title appearances. Even still, Carroll has been outstanding in recent years and this year’s edition could add to one of the state’s most impressive trophy cabinets if they can reload on defense. In Division 2, Carroll’s top Region 1 rival would be Denton Guyer. However, if Haltom, who we currently have projected to finish 5th, could grab a playoff spot, it would send Carroll back to Division 1. That alone makes this district worth following, but there are a few other teams in the mix worth watching as well.
Byron Nelson, despite mid-season blowouts against Carroll and Eaton, mounted a playoff run that ended with a show-stopping 3rd round thriller against Guyer. The Bobcats return crucial pieces of last year’s team and have a good chance to build on last year’s success. Keller and Northwest Eaton are our other favorites to make the playoffs in 4-6A. Keller actually has more experience returning than either Bryon Nelson or Eaton and is clearly the best of the Keller ISD contingent this year. That said, Eaton beat both Keller and Byron Nelson handily last year, but it remains to be seen how well they’ll rebuild after heavy graduation losses. With Nelson, Keller, and Eaton looking as relatively strong as they do compared to the rest of the district, it would seem unlikely for anyone else outside of Haltom to make a serious run at the playoffs.
Bonus 5 district races to watch:
19-6A: Paetow joins Katy and Tompkins along with Jordan to form a 9-team Katy district. Though Paetow lost the coach that just took them to a 5A State Title, they made excellent hires in response and welcomed one of the best defensive talents in America to a team already blessed on that side of the ball. Katy is once-again the clear favorites here on the depth and strength of their returning squad, but Paetow’s introduction combined with Tompkins’ now-proven staying power and Cinco Ranch’s recent improvement will surely test the Tigers in ways they haven’t been tested during the district schedule in quite some time.
The top 4 in 19-6A is well clear of the rest of the pack, making Katy and Paetow the Division 2 representatives, with Cinco and Tompkins destined for D1. Though Jordan may struggle in Year 1, it won’t be long at all before they become a force in this ever-growing, ever-improving district.
17-6A: Last year, Jersey Village came out on top in what was a highly competitive top-end of the district race, edging out Stratford and Cy-Fair. All three teams featured young squads in 2021 and each return their starting QB and at least 11 other starters. Our model gives Cy-Fair the razor-thin edge mainly due to their recent history and because last year’s Bobcat team did underperform to their usual standard, most notably on defense. The Bobcats do return 6 All-District starters on D, so a reversion to their mean is probable.
Jersey Village and Stratford will be even better than they were last year, so if there’s one race to watch to see how well our model picks between the finer margins this is a great one to follow. That being said, the model does only favor Cy-Fair by 75 Elo rating points, or a field goal, over Jersey Village and Stratford who have identical ratings. Though Cy-Fair starts the year in the Top 25, all three could easily end up there by year-end.
6-6A: Perhaps no other district race will be as tightly contested as 6-6A. FM Marcus and Lewisville look the strongest of the group, with very little to separate the two of them. Our model makes Marcus a slight favorite due to returning more defensive talent from a stronger defensive unit overall, but Lewisville looks stronger offensively. The district title will likely once again hinge on the showdown between the Farmers and Marauders.
Looking at the race for the final two playoff spots, it looks like there are 5 teams that could legitimately challenge. Just 175 Elo rating points, or the equivalent of a touchdown, separates 3rd place from 7th in our model, putting Flower Mound, Coppell, Hebron, Plano, and Plano West in a virtual toss-up to see who plays beyond Week 10.
28-6A: Carrying on the theme of tightly-contested districts, 28-6A looks to be a great one to follow. Reagan, paced by the best defense in the district, and Johnson, led by its offense, look to be the best bets to top the district. The same dynamics were in play last season and it was Johnson’s offense that won the day in a 46-43 victory over Reagan which clinched the district title.
Interestingly, just 250 Elo points, or a touchdown and a field goal, separates 1st place projected Reagan from 5th place Madison. In fact, Madison and Clark enter the season with the exact same Elo rating. With Johnson and Reagan Division 1 locks, the wild race for 4th will only determine the Division 2 representatives. Whoever enters the postseason, they’ll be looking to play beyond the second week of the playoffs; a feat no team in 28-6A accomplished last season.
29-6A: Down in 29-6A, home to Brennan, San Antonio’s top-rated team for the second season running, another intriguing playoff race is on the cards. While Brennan is miles ahead of the rest of the pack, 2nd place through 6th is only separated by 275 Elo rating points, meaning that any 3 of Harlan, Taft, O’Connor, Holmes, and Warren could make the playoffs. None of the 5 return significant portions of last year’s squads making this one of the truly up-for-grabs playoff races in the state. Our model likes Harlan and Taft as the top two out of that grouping, but very little separates the rest.
Spot on analysis for 11-6A. Good work.