Top 50 Rankings: Week 2
See how this weekend's results affected the Elo Ratings for the top teams
After a highly entertaining and often unpredictable opening weekend, let’s take a look at the most significant movements among the state’s top teams in our model rankings.
It’s important to note that, since these rankings are derived purely from a mathematical origin, there can be some seemingly odd movements like The Woodlands gaining a spot in the rankings despite a loss while Temple lost ground after a win, for example. Every team’s ranking depends on their own performance of course, but also on their performance relative to the pregame expectations as well that of the teams around them. As we’ve mentioned before, these early weeks are a little messy, but things will settle out in short order as each team logs a few game results. Right now, the rankings still have a heavy bias toward each team’s preseason expectations, but that will fade quickly as we get into the season.
With that said, here are the main takeaways from the new set of rankings:
There was little changed among the teams at the very top. These teams, by and large, did what they were expected to do. North Shore did gain a little ground on Westlake following their outstanding performance against The Woodlands. The Mustangs gained 42 Elo points, while the Chaps added 8.
At the bottom half of the top 10, Summer Creek dropped out and fell eight spots following their close loss to Klein Cain. We see this result as speaking more to Klein Cain being stronger than we expected rather than any indictment on Summer Creek.
Humble Atascocita and Arlington Martin both made big moves into the Top 10 following their impressive performances against Dickinson and Lake Travis, respectively. Lake Travis dropped 10 spots overall, but it’s worthy to note they were without starting quarterback Bo Edmundson (his return TBD).
Brennan only fell two spots after their heartbreaking loss to Steele and Steele is still below Brennan for now simply due to how the system is built in the sense that it doesn’t overreact to a single result, especially this early in the season. It would be fair to say that the two shouldn’t be this far apart in the rankings, but that’s simply a factor of Steele’s preseason ranking, unfair as that may seem now. Over time, this will iron out.
Our highest rated 6A newcomer, Dripping Springs, is already knocking on the door of the Top 10 after knocking off previously #13 ranked Austin Vandegrift (dropped to #19).
Other 5+ spot moves among the Top 50 are Round Rock, Highland Park, Lewisville, Bridgeland, Denton Braswell, and New Caney. Each of these teams exceeded expectations with impressive opening week wins and are worth keeping an eye on. Lucky for all of us, Highland Park and Lewisville face off in Week 2.
Without further ado, here’s the new TNG Top 50 for Week 2:
Any way we can see the full rankings each week? I'd like to see how my Dawgs move up or down the rankings throughout the season.
Just curious... how are ELO gains and losses calculated? Did I miss a post about this?