Top 50 Rankings: Week 3
See how this weekend's results affected the Elo Ratings for the top teams
Note: We recently noticed a google sheets bug that was causing Cedar Park Vista Ridge’s elo to be incorrect the first couple weeks. We’ve fixed the issue and CPVR’s elo has been updated, as well as the couple other teams this affected.
Just as Week 1 can always reliably provide plenty of shock value and surprise, Week 2 usually delivers some sense of stability, whether in reaffirming Week 1’s results or in reaffirming preseason narratives that were seemingly blown up in Week 1. We had a healthy amount of both with the results from Week 2 and here we’ll take a look at how the model interpreted those results.
Here are the main takeaways from the new set of rankings:
There was little changed among the teams in the top 6. The only change here is DeSoto falls out of that elite group with their lopsided loss to St. Frances (MD). Both Guyer and SLC slid up a spot as a result.
Rounding out the rest of the top 10, Allen made a nice jump of five spots back into the top 10 following their big rebound win over CE King, while Spring Westfield continued its overall rise in the rankings after beating expectations for the 2nd week in a row. They moved up eight spots to crack the Top 10.
From about 10th place through 17th, teams are very tightly packed with an Elo rating difference of only 36 points. This difference translates to around 1-2 points on the field as the only separation between these teams. These teams could essentially be placed in any order. As a result, minor movements up or down based on margins of victory, as evident this week, will continue to be the norm until someone makes a big move out of this tier.
Taking the previous point a step further, 10th through 32nd in this week’s rankings are separated by less than 250 Elo points, or just 10 points on the field. Any game between these teams would be considered a toss-up, currently.
Looking at #20 and below, there are quite a few teams that backed up good Week 1 performances with another this past weekend, and as a result, they’re continuing to make large moves up the rankings. Teams like Katy Tompkins (+3), Highland Park (+5), Cibolo Steele (+10), Klein Collins (+3), and Rockwall (+6). Keep an eye out for these programs moving forward.
There are also some programs who made huge jumps in the rankings due to good bounce back performances this week following opening week losses. Inside of the to 20, Allen and Summer Creek would qualify in this category as well.
Dickinson (+11), 14 point win + shutout over Fort Bend Ridge Point
Cy Ranch (+25), 15 point win over Katy Paetow
Rockwall-Heath (+29), 30 point win over Euless Trinity
Pearland (+19), 26 point win over Houston Memorial
Without further ado, here’s the new TNG Top 50 for Week 3:
I'd be interested to see a Strength of Schedule ranking of these teams based on ELO, and see how that compares to the team rankings.