TNG 2023 6A State Championship Previews
It's 11-6A vs 21-6A, NS-DV V, Houston vs Dallas...let's do this...
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out our State Semifinals Recap to review the action from last week.
In this post we’ll present the historical model performance for the State Championships and we’ll preview each of epic 6A title games coming up this Saturday.
Historical Model Performance for the State Championship Round
As you can see in the chart below, our model has typically picked at least one of the two title winners each year, with the one exception being 2017 when Allen and Cy-Fair emerged as champions, each being about a 3-point underdog going into their matchups against Lake Travis and Waco Midway. What does the model show for our two games this year? Read on to find out…
State Championship Preview - Division 1
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
North Shore +6, 66% to win vs Duncanville
Sat 12/16, 3pm, AT&T Stadium
It looked inevitable in the Spring and here we are: North Shore vs Duncanville, Part 5. After 16 weeks of games, it all comes down to these two to decide the Division 1 champion for the fifth time in six years. Three of the previous four meetings have been decided by a TD or less, with 2019 being the only outlier.
Our model is again calling for a one-score game, and, perhaps surprisingly, it favors the Mustangs this time around. Duncanville won last year’s meeting 28-21 and is in impeccable form coming into this year’s title bout, while North Shore enters this game with more question marks than in any of the previous games between these two. Why, then, is the model favoring North Shore? It’s really just down to how the math in an Elo system works and due to the fact that Duncanville lost to DeSoto as a favorite; that caused Duncanville to lose more points than it was able to make up as heavy favorites in their remaining games. The model doesn’t add many points to a team’s rating for winning as an overwhelming favorite. It also doesn’t take away points when a team perhaps underperforms. These are the main reasons why we like to look at recent trends in the underlying numbers to tell us if there are other signals pointing us away from the Elo call. In this matchup, the recent trending data points heavily in the direction of Duncanville.
In this playoff run, Duncanville has put together a 5-game stretch of performances that rivals the best we can find in our dataset in the last 15 years. The Panthers have posted an adjusted offensive scoring margin of +42, while posting a -23 on defense for an overall, schedule-adjusted, +65 scoring margin. That means that they are scoring 42ppg more than an average team would be expected to score against their schedule, while at the same time allowing 23ppg less than an average team would be expected to allow against their same schedule. For context, only 2021 Westlake and 2015 Katy managed to put together a better stretch of games in the run-up to the State Championship.
North Shore clearly has their work cut out for them, with Duncanville performing at an all-time level, but the Mustangs’ underlying numbers show us that they are capable of winning this one, thanks to their outstanding defense which actually ranks ahead of their 2021 and 2018 units, in terms of their adjusted scoring. At their best this year, North Shore has approached the level that Duncanville has maintained throughout their playoff run, so they know they have it in them; can they produce it on demand?
The key matchup in this game, in our eyes, is the North Shore offense against the Duncanville defense. More specifically, how well can North Shore manage the Duncanville front while getting the ball in the hands of their electric playmakers on the perimeter. The Mustangs will need Bailey to be sharp and decisive in his reads to counteract the ferocious Duncanville pass rush. The North Shore D could play a great game against Duncanville’s offense and still give up 30+. Keelon Russell, Caden Durham, Dakorien Moore and co. are operating at an incredibly high level. It’s likely going to be up to the North Shore offense to be able to break that 30-point barrier to come out with a win in this one.
North Shore won the 2018 and 2019 games as an Elo favorite, and the Elo underdog has actually won the last two meetings. Duncanville looks like a good pick to make it three in a row for the “underdogs”, but, at their best, this North Shore squad is also good enough to make it four out of five for the Beastside. This 5th battle between these two historically great programs promises to be another classic.
State Championship Preview - Division 2
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DeSoto +9, 72% to win vs Summer Creek
Sat 12/16, 7pm, AT&T Stadium
Unlike the Division 1 final, this is a matchup that we didn’t foresee until Week 11’s conclusion, when Austin Vandegrift was officially shipped over to the Division 1 bracket. Up until that point, all indications were that DeSoto and Vandegrift were on a collision course to be the second 6A state title rematch of the year. As soon as Vandy was out of the picture though, our modeling immediately pointed to the Summer Creek Bulldogs as being the most likely opponent to face the newly-crowned 11-6A champs and defending State Champions in the final game of the Texas high school football season.
The Bulldogs cruised until their Round 4 clash with Hightower, which nearly sent them crashing out of the playoffs, but a stirring late rally propelled them to the semifinals where they crushed an excellent Cibolo Steele squad to reach their first state title appearance.
Most people are well aware of what DeSoto brings to the table, so what does Summer Creek bring? The Bulldogs actually embody their mascot in how they play. This is a mentally and physically tough squad who simply does not quit and is also very disciplined in their approach. They have speed everywhere and can legitimately claim one of the best defenses in the state in addition to an offense that can be both explosive and methodical as needed. The biggest issue facing Summer Creek, however, is that DeSoto is all of those things and then some, having already conquered the very mountain they’re trying to summit.
While Elo points to a near double-digit advantage for DeSoto, let’s take a look at what the recent trending data shows us. In the five playoff games leading up to this final act, DeSoto has posted a +36 adjusted offensive scoring total along with a defense that posted -17 for a +53ppg adjusted scoring differential. Summer Creek, on the other hand, has posted +22 on offense and an impressive -23 on defense for a +45ppg adjusted scoring differential. The underlying data seems to trend with Elo on this one, with DeSoto being a fairly clear favorite.
Similar to the D1 game, we see the key matchup likely being the 21-6A offense against the 11-6A defense. The Summer Creek D has the tools to get some stops against this outstanding DeSoto offense, but it’s still gonna likely take 30+ from their offense to have a chance to win this one. Does Summer Creek have enough in them to get that done? Can their offensive line create enough creases for Lloyd Avant to exploit, and can Blake Thomas be that x-factor to avoid sacks and move the chains when DeSoto gets in the backfield? Offensively, DeSoto has had great success leaning on their basically unstoppable running game and, at any moment, they are capable of hitting a big play in the passing game downfield. Can Summer Creek use their great defensive front seven to create some turnovers, or will they be neutralized by DeSoto’s mammoth offensive line?
There are so many storylines to watch as this one unfolds. We expect this to be an outstanding closing chapter to the 2023 Texas high school football season. Will it end with both South Dallas squads retaining their titles, or will one or both of the Houston squads crash the party and bring a title back to Houston?
Again, no offense, but in today’s watered down playoffs just tell her and grandma to pick Duncanville, DeSoto, Westlake and Northshore and she does close to that every time. Grandma can do that as well. I’m not criticizing your system, just the UIL for putting 4 teams from each district into the playoffs. 10-0 teams vs 2-8 teams aren’t interesting and it’s just the final couple of weeks that are still fun for a football junkie.
Nothing personal but a busty hot blond bombshell can get at least one right by using her favorite color as a tool. DeSoto will destroy Summer Creek and the other game is usually a toss up.