TNG 2023 Class 6A Area Preview
Take a look at the top games of the round, updated bracket odds for each team, and the model's picks for every game of the second round of the 2023 playoffs
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out our Bi-District Recap to see how we got here, and also check out this week’s podcast here: TNG Bi-District Recap and Area Preview Podcast. We talk about everything in the Recap newsletter and everything in this newsletter in more depth on the pod…give it a listen!
In this post, we’ll cover model performance and then we’ll jump into the key games to watch this week. Later in this post we present the updated bracket odds for each team still alive and we close with the model’s picks for every game this week.
Historical Model Performance for the Area Round
As you can see in the table below, the Area Round can produce its share of surprises and with so much chalk last week, the environment seems ripe for some upsets. We’ll take through some of those potential upsets below.
Top Games to Watch in the Area Round - Division 1
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D1 Region 1
Midland Legacy +7, 68% to win vs Euless Trinity - Trinity has been playing really well lately, aside from the Bell result, and Legacy has been playing equivalently well, aside from their close win over Odessa. While the model favors Legacy, some of the underlying numbers point to a virtual toss-up. Trinity is probably the better defensive team of the two, while Legacy has the slightly better offense. This one has the look of a 41-38 type of shootout. Trinity winning the home-and-home toss, on top of the other factors at play, may give them just enough to take this one.
Allen +7, 68% to win vs Arlington Martin - These two met in Week 3 with Allen winning 51-31, but the model sees a tighter result this time around. As we look at each team’s adjusted scoring metrics, Allen holds a slight edge in recent weeks in both schedule-adjusted offensive and defensive performance, which agrees with the model. Both teams have improved over the course of the season, setting up a great matchup at Carroll’s Dragon Stadium.
D1 Region 2
Klein Collins +6, 66% to win vs The Woodlands - Both Collins and The Woodlands may be coming into this one without key offensive weapons, but we still should have an outstanding game. This one is one of the few featured games this week where the model may be pointing us in the wrong direction, considering the more recent performances of each team. The Woodlands has been playing a few points above its Elo rating, while Collins has been performing below theirs. Strictly in terms of more recent performances, The Woodlands might deserve to be the slight favorite here…and they’re playing at home.
Rockwall +5, 63% to win vs Waxahachie - They say “styles make fights” and there aren’t many games this round featuring as stark of a difference in styles as Rockwall and Waxahachie. By the numbers this year, Rockwall is an elite offensive unit with a slightly below-average defense, and Waxahachie is an elite defensive unit with a slightly below-average offense. Waxahachie won last year’s meeting 31-25 with a considerably better offense coming in, so it feels about right that the model leans in Rockwall’s direction this time. It should be a great game.
Spring Westfield +13, 80% to win vs Klein Cain - Cain was an upset winner in thrilling comeback fashion last week, while Westfield finally flexed some of the muscles we’d been expecting to see all season. The model has this one close enough that Westfield should definitely be on upset alert. With how Cain’s offense is humming, they can put pressure on Westfield’s normally stout defense. We’ll see if Westfield can back up last week’s performance. If they do, they could win this one comfortably.
D1 Region 3
Katy +7, 68% to win vs Cy-Fair - This classic battle of the two oldest schools in their respective mega-ISDs will take place on Cy-Fair’s home turf at the Berry Center. Katy enters this week on a bit of a roll, significantly outplaying their Elo as of late, but Cy-Fair presents a test unlike any Katy has faced to-date. QB Trey Owens for the Bobcats can get the ball to anywhere on the field with precision and he has a group of very talented athletes to throw to against Katy’s much-discussed pass defense. The Tigers have actually been really solid on D lately, but this is their chance to prove it on a big stage.
Ridge Point +1, 52% vs Houston Lamar - These two gave us a great defensive battle last year, as Ridge Point won 14-10, and the model is calling for another classic. Is there anything in the underlying numbers and trends to separate these two? Well…no, in fact. No matter how we look at this one, the data points to a toss-up. It’s likely to come down to whoever can execute most consistently while being on the right side of the turnover battle. The are two excellent teams and it’s unfortunate that we’ll lose one of them so early. This is the best game of Round 2.
D1 Region 4
Lake Travis +17, 86% vs SA Johnson - Lake Travis had the biggest win of the opening round, knocking off undefeated and Top 5 state-ranked Vandegrift. The model as well as all of our metrics point to clear advantages for Lake Travis, but the Cavs can’t get too comfortable, because Ty Hawkins and the Johnson offense have the potential to test them if they have a letdown from last week’s high.
San Benito +7, 67% to win vs Laredo United - San Benito spent most of the year as the favorite in 32-6A before getting knocked off by Weslaco in the final week and they’ll face a Laredo United squad that went through 30-6A as undefeated district champs. Both teams beat Harlingen in the regular season, but the model gives the slight nod to San Benito. Looking beyond the model, San Benito does appear to have the edge on both sides of the ball. This should be a good one, but the Greyhounds appear to be the clear favorites.
Top Games to Watch in the Area Round - Division 2
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D2 Region 1
Southlake Carroll +17, 86% to win vs Frenship - Carroll will travel out to Abilene on Thursday night to take on the high-flying Frenship Tigers who are fresh off an 87 point outburst against Eastwood. Carroll, for their part, put up a 70-0 spot last week. There will be a ton of points in this one, but like last year, expect most of those to be on the Carroll side of the board. Despite the loss to Byron Nelson, the numbers suggest that Carroll is simply playing some of the best football in the state. A rematch with the Bobcats seems inevitable.
McKinney +3, 58% to win vs Highland Park - This is a fascinating matchup because as good as McKinney has looked and as good as their underlying numbers are, Highland Park is a program that simply knows how to win at this time of year. The model seems to be taking that into account by favoring McKinney by just 3, while our adjusted scoring metrics point toward McKinney being potentially a TD better on each side of the ball.
D2 Region 2
Willis +11, 77% to win vs Tomball Memorial - These two may not agree on how to spell Wildcats, err Wildkats…whichever…but they both know how to put points on the board, which should make for an outstandingly entertaining football game. Willis is the highest scoring team in the state, putting up over 58ppg, and Memorial put 79 on the board in defeating Klein Cain earlier this year. Between the two, it’s actually Memorial who has the stronger defense by the numbers, which adds intrigue to this matchup that otherwise leans rather strongly in Willis’ favor.
Oak Ridge +1, 53% to win vs Tomball - What a great matchup this is. Elo can barely pick between the two, even with a full season of data at its disposal. One one hand, the adjusted scoring numbers support Elo picking Oak Ridge as the favorite, but the x-factor is definitely Tomball’s playoff savvy, which is real, but can’t be quantified. If we get the Tomball that drummed Cy Falls last week, they might win by a TD or two.
D2 Region 3
Houston Stratford +2, 55% to win vs George Ranch - This is another great-looking game that the model can barely sort out. It’s a matchup of contrasting styles, pitting the smooth-operated passing attack led by Aaron DeLeon for Stratford against the multi-pronged running attack of George Ranch. The adjusted scoring numbers actually lean farther in the direction of Stratford here, but at most we’re looking at two teams that should be within 10 points of each other heading into this one.
CE King +6, 65% to win vs Clear Falls - We were a little surprised when we saw the model crank out “just” the six points favoring CE King, but Clear Falls has been a really solid team, who, like King, challenged themselves in non-district. They share one common opponent in Summer Creek and it was actually Clear Falls who played them to a slightly closer game (32-14 vs 33-12)…interesting. Falls’ D vs King’s O is the key matchup to watch here.
D2 Region 4
SA Harlan +9, 72% to win vs Harlingen - This one is really interesting. While Elo strongly favors Harlan, nearly all of the adjusted scoring metrics and recent trends point to Harlingen pulling off the model upset here. While the Cardinals have had a “down” year by their standards, they are playing really good D and of all the factors in this game, that one stands out as the biggest advantage for either team. A Harlingen win in this one could mean three 32-6A teams are playing on Thanksgiving week.
Weslaco +8, 70% to win vs SA Jay - We’re always interested when we get a good San Antonio vs the Valley game, like the one we just featured, and this one involves the undefeated 32-6A champion in the Weslaco Panthers. The Panthers are on a roll and all of the underlying metrics support the Elo call here.
Updated Bracket Odds
Here’s an updated look at the Round 1 survivors’ odds to advance from each round for each bracket, sorted by their odds to win it all. Remember, your team’s odds will change as you’re able to advance. They can change drastically if you defy the model and pull off an upset.
And finally, let’s take a look at the model’s picks for each of this week’s games…
Are you going to update the playoff odds tables going into this weekend?