TNG 2023 Class 6A Regional Finals Recap
See how the model performed and review the action from the Regional Finals...
We are down to just six games remaining in the entire 2023 season, but before we get to the previews of the State Semifinals, we'll recap all of the action that crowned this year's regional champions in this newsletter. For a much more detailed discussion of everything presented here, and for a sneak peak at the picks for the upcoming weekend, give this week’s podcast a listen!
Model Performance
The model correctly picked 7 out of 8 winners this week (87.5%), maintaining the pace it has established over the last several years in the Regional Finals/State Quarterfinals round.
Looking at our season-to-date performance, the model has picked 81.2% of the correct winners in all games involving 6A teams, and if we use the CalPreps standard of not counting results until 9/15 forward, we’re correctly picking 84.7% of the winners.
With that covered, let’s review each of the games played this weekend…
Division 1 Regional Finals Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Region 1:
North Crowley 49-37 over Allen, was +5, 62% to win - Sat 12/2, 1pm, Dragon Stadium:
All signs pointed to this being a really competitive game with North Crowley likely proving too strong in the end, and that’s pretty much how it played out. Allen came out of the gate playing very well and made it clear that things were not going to be easy for North Crowley. It was a back and forth contest throughout the first half, and it seemed like either team was capable of advancing. North Crowley held just a 21-17 advantage at halftime. The two teams played a near stalemate in the third quarter, but Allen managed the only score of the period to go up 24-21 headed into the 4th quarter. North Crowley responded with a score early in the fourth and then forced a turnover on downs before tacking on another score to make it a 35-24 game. Allen eventually got it back to a one-score game, but North Crowley was able to break another big play in the running game late to seal the win and book their first trip to the semifinals as a 6A program.
Region 2:
Duncanville 70-28 over Westfield, was +13, 79% to win, Sat 12/2, 3pm, The Palace:
Duncanville gave Westfield a taste of their own medicine, allowing them to experience the other end of what they did to Rockwall last weekend. Duncanville jumped all over the Mustangs and led 28-6 after the first quarter and led 56-14 at half. Duncanville clearly wanted to send a message that last year’s game was a fluke, and boy did they ever. Last week we wrote, “We expect to see a focused effort from Duncanville, and fully expect the champs to flex in this one.” Duncanville appears to be peaking at just the right time.
Region 3:
North Shore 34-28 over Atascocita, was +17, 85% to win, Sat 12/2, 2pm, Pasadena Memorial:
Going into this game, we weren’t sure how Atascocita was going to stay close, given the recent playoff history between these two and given how the last meeting went. To Atascocita’s credit, they came to play in this one and jumped out to a 14-0 lead and actually led 14-6 at half. The Atascocita defense forced three straight 3-and-outs to start the game and played fantastically well throughout the first half. The Eagles probably deserved to have a bigger lead at the break, and they would end up regretting not capitalizing on more of their early opportunities.
North Shore came out of halftime and scored on a long pass to Chris Barnes to immediately get it to 14-13, and then blocked a punt for a TD on Atascocita’s next possession to go up 20-14. North Shore would add two more TDs in the third quarter to get it to 34-14. It was the type of championship response we've come to expect from North Shore. Everyone probably figured they’d extend the lead and blow them out from there, but Atascocita kept battling. The Eagles actually had a chance to get the ball back with under a minute left down just 6, but a roughing the punter call allowed North Shore to kneel it out from there.
Region 4:
Austin Westlake 21-14 over Lake Travis, was +11, 76% to win, Sat 12/2, 2pm, The Pfield:
Despite the passage of time and the changes to both teams’ starting QBs, this game played out similarly to the first meeting, minus the kicking game heroics. Westlake led 7-0 at the half and seemed to basically put it away with a score that made it 14-0. Given how the Chaps were stifling the Cavs’ offense, it was difficult to see a way back for the underdogs. But following one of several turnovers forced by each team’s phenomenal defenses, Chaston Ditta hit Kadyn Leon on a long TD pass to make it 14-7 with 9 minutes left. The two defenses continued to throw haymakers, forcing a string of momentum-altering turnovers until Westlake finally converted one of them into the decisive score with 3 minutes left to go up 21-7. Lake Travis would add a score with under a minute left, but it was too little too late. With the win, Westlake makes their 7th straight trip to the State Semifinals.
Division 2 Regional Finals Recap:
Live Google Sheets brackets with scores, game times, and locations:
TNG Brackets 6A D1 & D2
Click to expand bracket images and then download for a high-res copy
Region 1:
Southlake Carroll 56-7 over Byron Nelson, was -2, 45% to win, Sat 12/2, 7:30pm, Choctaw:
Wow! In the most stunning result of the week, Southlake Carroll completely dominated Byron Nelson from the opening kick, completely exorcising any demons that may have remained from their regular season loss to the Bobcats. We saw signals in the underlying numbers that suggested that Carroll had been playing the better ball lately, but we weren’t sure how that would translate through the actual matchups on the field. It didn’t take long to get that answer. Carroll came out firing in all phases of the game and built a 42-0 halftime lead that was fully deserved. The Dragons will enter the Semifinals with a tremendous amount of momentum and belief, but they know what lies ahead.
Region 2:
DeSoto 59-16 over Cedar Hill, was +29, 96% to win, Fri 12/1, 7pm, Kincaide Stadium:
You’d think we’d trust the model more at this point, but we were picking up on some signs that pointed toward Cedar Hill possibly hanging around and making a better game of this one than the 29-point margin Elo was projecting. Nope. DeSoto was again just too strong, and they completely overwhelmed a very good Cedar Hill team that had been on a great run of form. DeSoto led 38-10 at the break and had hung 59 on the board by the end of the third quarter while ultimately holding Cedar Hill to just 57 yards rushing in the game. The Eagles somehow manage to look stronger each week and that’s a credit to their coaching and their focus.
Region 3:
Summer Creek 35-31 over Hightower, was +14, 81% to win, Sat 12/2, 2pm, CFFCU:
There were some good games this week, but this was the best of the bunch. Although Summer Creek was a fairly heavy favorite, Hightower brought enough talent to the table to make it interesting. Hightower was in this game from the beginning and was arguably the better team throughout most of the game. The Canes were able to utilize their physical presence and some timely playmaking to hold a slight lead into the fourth quarter when they created what seemed like the defining moment of the entire round.
With Summer Creek attempting to mount a drive to finally take the lead, Hightower stepped in front of a pass near midfield and returned it for a touchdown to give Hightower a 31-20 lead with around 6 minutes left. It was one of those plays that so often punctuates an upset, but Summer Creek is one of those teams that can always come back as long as there is time on the clock. The Bulldogs mounted a great response, driving the length of the field to score, and they converted a two-point conversion to get within three. Summer Creek then forced a punt from Hightower near midfield. Instead of punting it away and forcing the Bulldogs to go the length of the field, Hightower attempted to put the game away on their terms by boldly calling a fake punt pass from their punter/RB Jeremy Payne which fell harmlessly to the turf as the intended receiver was double-covered. Rodney Harrison’s Bulldogs would take full advantage of the great field position and scored the game-winning TD with just 23 seconds left in the game, giving them, incredibly, their first lead of the game. What a comeback and what a way for Summer Creek to get their breakthrough, winning Region 3 for the first time in school history.
Region 4:
Steele 28-21 over Dripping Springs, was +6, 64% to win, Sat 12/2, 7pm at The Alamodome -
We’d been looking forward to this matchup ever since the official brackets were released. These two teams appeared to be well-matched and were clear favorites to finally meet up at this very stage and they delivered an outstanding football game worthy of the venue and the occasion. Steele started incredibly well, hitting a 77 yard TD pass to Jalen Cooper on their first possession and actually led 21-7 at one point in the second quarter before Dripping Springs got a crucial score just before half to make it 21-14.
The Dripping Springs D that had been beaten a little bit in recent weeks by lesser offenses was much better in this game against an incredibly dynamic Steele squad. This was the Tiger D that we knew. Drip would battle back to get the game tied at 21 late in the third, before Steele answered to go up 28-21. Dripping Springs drove down with a chance to tie it late in the game, but was picked off at the goal line and Steele was able to run out the clock to capture a hard-fought, and well-earned win over a tough Dripping Springs team.
Full Scoreboard
And, with all of that covered, check below for every result in the state this weekend!