TNG 2023 Class 6A Regional Semifinals Preview
Take a look at our previews for each of the games of the round, view updated bracket odds for each team, and see the model's picks for every game of the third round of the 2023 playoffs
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out our Area Round Recap to relive and review the amazing action from last week.
In this post we’ll present the historical model performance for the Regional Semifinal round, we’ll preview each of the 16 games this week, we’ll unveil the updated bracket odds for each team still alive in the playoffs, and we’ll show you the model’s picks for each of the games in the third round of the 2023 6A playoffs.
Historical Model Performance for the Regional Semifinal Round
As you can see in the table below, the model tends to do really well in this round, historically picking 81.4% of the winners on average. That’s the highest mark of any round of the playoffs, but it’s worth pointing out, however, that the range of results in any given year has been quite large, with a low of 56.3% in 2013 to twice recording a perfect 100% record (2014 and 2022).
Regional Semifinal Round Previews - Division 1
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D1 Region 1
Prosper +3, 59% to win vs North Crowley at Frisco Ford Center, Sat, 2pm - The two highest rated teams coming into the D1 Region 1 bracket will finally face off this weekend in a rematch from last year’s third round. North Crowley is much better than they were last year, according to all of our metrics, while Prosper is rated similarly to how they were in the last meeting. This will be North Crowley’s toughest test of the season by a large margin, and it will be interesting to see how their dominance against a much weaker schedule stacks up against the battle-tested playoff experience of this Prosper squad. This should be a fantastic game.
Allen +2, 55% to win vs Midland Legacy at Shotwell Stadium, Sat, 4pm - Both Allen and Legacy came out on top in overtime thrillers last week, so it will be interesting to see which team is able to recover and regroup better for what should be another nail-biter. Allen is clearly the more balanced team, with a distinct advantage in this game with their defense, while Legacy clearly has the better offense. These types of matchups usually lead to lots plays, lots of possessions, and lots of points on the board. We wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored in the 30’s if not the 40’s in this one.
D1 Region 2
Duncanville +23, 92% to win vs The Woodlands at Hutto Memorial, Sat, 3pm - This game features another rematch of the same round last year. The margins between the teams, on paper, appear to be similar to those entering last year’s matchup. The Woodlands has been playing better lately and they might have a better idea of what they’re up against, having faced Duncanville last year, but the Panthers appear to have too much, regardless, for The Woodlands. That’s not a knock on The Woodlands…there simply aren’t more than 2 or 3 teams that could matchup with Duncanville in the mode they’re in.
Westfield +5, 63% to win vs Rockwall at the Pfield, Sat, 3pm - Buckle up folks. This game could be a thriller. Westfield and Rockwall both enter this game with offenses producing at elite levels and with defenses that don’t appear to be ready for the challenge they’re about to face. Westfield has been rated as highly as they have been all year, because we expected them to have an elite defense, but it hasn’t materialized yet, except in spurts like last week’s massive turnaround over 2+ quarters against Klein Cain. The Mustangs will need a four quarter effort from their highly capable D to stop Ashton Emery and company. Westfield’s offense, featuring Miles Dent and Taji Atkins could run wild in this one.
D1 Region 3
North Shore +25, 93% to win vs Cy-Fair at NRG, Fri, 2pm - Cy-Fair had a great but draining win over Katy last week while North Shore struggled for a half with Clear Springs. If Cy-Fair is able to refocus and regroup quickly and keep executing their precision passing attack at a high level, they could stay in the game longer than most expect. The Bobcats’ biggest challenge will be matching up defensively with North Shore on the perimeter, as the Mustangs present a far different challenge from what they saw last week. In North Shore’s recent playoff runs, this is typically about the point where they start to really assert themselves. All of the matchups suggest a comfortable North Shore win here, but Cy-Fair is capable of giving them a test, especially if North Shore starts slow again.
Humble Atascocita +9, 73% vs Houston Lamar at NRG, Fri, 6pm - The matchups in this game appear to point to a shootout as Lamar’s defense will be severely tested by one of the Top 5 offenses in the state, while Lamar’s explosive offense matches up well with Atascocita’s defense. There will be a breath-taking amount of speed on the field in this game, so we can’t wait to watch this one. If Lamar can generate a few turnovers like they did last week against Ridge Point, they might just spoil the plans for a 21-6A reunion in the regional final.
D1 Region 4
Lake Travis +17, 86% vs SA Brennan at The Alamodome, Fri, 3pm - Lake Travis got out to an unbelievably quick start last week against Johnson and Brennan had little trouble with PSJA, so both of these teams should be fresh and ready to go for this one. Brennan ended Lake Travis’ 2022 campaign in this round a year ago by the 17-point margin, interestingly, that our model favors them by this time around. The Cavs have been playing really well since their loss to Dripping Springs, but they’ll need to be ready against a really good Brennan team who has done a great job rebuilding their squad this season.
Austin Westlake +36, 98% to win vs Laredo United at The Alamodome, Sat, 3pm - Westlake are the biggest favorites on the board this week and it’s hard to argue that. The Chaps, while maybe not at their level of the past few years, did dispatch of a really strong Reagan team last week to remain undefeated on the season. Laredo United will hope to cause havoc with their experienced offense led by QB Atzel Chavez, but it’s simply a bad matchup against the elite D that Westlake brings to the table.
Regional Semifinal Round Previews - Division 2
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
D2 Region 1
Southlake Carroll +11, 77% to win vs Highland Park at Choctaw Stadium, Fri, 2:30 pm - Can Highland Park rise to the occasion as an underdog yet again? The Scots have twice previously been underdogs this season and they won both of those games, defeating Lewisville early in the season and defeating McKinney last week. They’ll face a much different challenge this week, however, with Southlake Carroll registering numbers that rank them among the Top 5 in the state in our adjusted scoring metrics. In fact, the underlying numbers point to a multiple-TD Carroll victory, but we don’t expect that to play out, given Highland Park’s pedigree, coaching, and toughness. We expect a hard-fought game here.
Byron Nelson +4, 61% to win vs Coppell at Choctaw Stadium, Sat, 3:30pm - What a great game this should be. Elo slightly favors the Bobcats, but all of our underlying metrics support a Coppell victory. Coppell has been one of the best teams that nobody has been paying attention to for weeks now and the Bobcats, of course, hold a 17-point win over Carroll. You could make a strong case for either team winning this one, which is all you could ask for in a regional semifinal. Honestly, either one of these teams is capable of winning the region too.
D2 Region 2
DeSoto +19, 88% to win vs Willis at The Alamodome, Fri, 7pm - This is a matchup we’ve been looking forward to for weeks. When the official brackets came out it was clear that DeSoto was a huge favorite to repeat as State Champions, especially after they dominated Duncanville. However, there was one potential game in their way that piqued our interest, and it was this one. Willis, led by a generational talent at QB in DJ Lagway, is on a magical run thanks to a wealth of playmakers on both sides of the ball. We’ve often said that double-digit favorites at this stage very rarely get beat, so it would take a rare team to pull that off. Is Willis that kind of team? We’ll soon find out. DeSoto is a complete team and it’s hard to see them getting knocked off at this stage, but this is definitely a game to keep an eye on.
Cedar Hill +6, 66% to win vs Tomball at Waco ISD Stadium, Sat, 4pm - Speaking of teams on magical runs, you may start to be able to say the same for whoever wins this fascinating matchup. Cedar Hill is on fire since getting their starting QB Anthony Edwards back after emergency surgery earlier this season. The Longhorns have played the state’s most difficult schedule according to our metrics and have emerged a battle-tested, very confident group. Tomball, on the other hand, has been doing Tomball things in the playoffs yet again and they can’t ever be counted out against anyone. Comparing the teams’ last five performances, it is Cedar Hill that appears to have a decided advantage, according to our numbers.
D2 Region 3
Summer Creek +30, 96% to win vs Stratford at Tomball ISD Stadium, Sat, 2pm - Summer Creek is the second biggest favorite on the board this week and as much as we’ve enjoyed Stratford’s run, this does appear to be a significant mismatch on both sides of the ball. The Summer Creek defense should be able to neutralize the Spartan offense, while the powerful running game of Summer Creek should find joy against the Spartan D. If Summer Creek has an off day offensively, Aaron DeLeon and co are talented enough to make things interesting for awhile.
Fort Bend Hightower +2, 56% to win vs CE King at NRG, Fri, 10am - This is an absurdly good matchup being held at an equally absurd time. The matchups appear to be so close across the board that the team who handles the start time the best may just win this one. This is another case where Elo points to one team, while the underlying numbers in recent weeks points to the other. CE King actually has the better performance numbers in the last few weeks and they do match up great physically with Hightower, which is difficult for most teams. We tend to lean against the model here, ever so slightly, and we see a 21-6A rematch in teh regional final.
D2 Region 4
Cibolo Steele +20, 89% to win vs SA Harlan at The Alamodome, Fri, 11am - Steele is a team that we’ve rated highly all season long and they’ve largely played up to those expectations. Their recent performances, however, possibly point to a small regression, which is concerning against a Harlan squad that can be explosive offensively. Even still, Steele appears to have too much across the board to be in serious jeopardy of an upset here. We still favor Steele to represent Region 4 in the semifinals.
Dripping Springs +23, 92% to win vs SA Jay at The Alamodome, Sat, 11am - After surviving a serious upset bid from Converse Judson last week and responding in championship fashion, we expect Dripping Springs to come out laser-focused and firing on all cylinders this week. The Tigers face a Jay squad that knocked off previously unbeaten Weslaco last week, but there’s nothing we can point to in the numbers that would indicate an advantage on the side of the Mustangs. As rare as major upsets are at this stage in the playoffs, it would seem beyond the realm of possibility for one team to (nearly) be on the wrong end of that two weeks in a row. We like the Tigers to move on and face Steele in a blockbuster next week.
Updated Bracket Odds
Here’s an updated look at the Round 2 survivors’ odds to advance from each round for each bracket, sorted by their odds to win it all. Remember, your team’s odds will change as you’re able to advance. They can change drastically if you defy the model and pull off an upset.
Now let’s take a look at what the model likes for this week’s games…
As usual we'll done gentlemen.