TNG 2023 Class 6A State Semifinals Preview
Take a look at our previews for each of the games of the round, view updated bracket odds for each team, and see the model's picks for every game of the fifth round of the 2023 playoffs
If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out our Regional Finals Recap to review the action from last week.
In this post we’ll present the historical model performance for the Regional Finals, we’ll preview each of the four games this week, we’ll unveil the updated bracket odds for each team still alive in the playoffs, and we’ll show you the model’s picks for each of the games in the penultimate round of the 2023 6A playoffs.
Historical Model Performance for the State Semifinal Round
Last year the model inexplicably missed on 3 out of 4 State Semifinal projections. It was the first year in our dataset where the model didn’t pick at least two of the state finalists. It’s also interesting to note that only once has the model correctly picked all four finalists. Upsets are likely this week, but which ones are the most likely? Read on to find out…
State Semifinal Previews - Division 1
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
Duncanville +15, 82% to win vs North Crowley
Sat 12/9, 3pm, Mesquite Memorial Stadium
We’re gonna go out on a particularly robust limb and say that this is not one of the likely upsets. As a 15-point favorite in our model, Duncanville edges out DeSoto and North Shore as the biggest favorite on the board this week. While North Crowley has some phenomenal players led by Coach Ray Gates, who’s done truly outstanding work in just two years, they are facing a truly monumental task. This is North Crowley’s first appearance at this stage as a 6A program, while Duncanville has been to this point each of the last five years, going through to Arlington four times.
The underlying numbers for North Crowley are as good as any team Duncanville has faced and they do point to the potential for this game to be perhaps closer than the model is suggesting. North Crowley has an elite and elusive QB in Chris Jimerson who operates a diverse and balanced offense with playmakers everywhere, which could keep them in the game, but Duncanville’s experience and their advantages along both lines are likely going to be more than North Crowley can overcome.
North Shore +13, 79% to win vs Austin Westlake
Sat 12/9, 3pm, The Pfield
These two titans met yet again, to the delight of neutrals everywhere. If you like physical, disciplined, no-nonsense 12-round title bouts played out on the gridiron, this is the game for you. The last three meetings between these two have been nothing short of epic. There was the 2015 OT thriller in the last State Championships held in Houston. Then there was the 2020 meeting of defending state champions held at Legacy Stadium in Katy where Westlake denied North Shore a shot at a three-peat and ended their 30-game winning streak. And then last year, North Shore returned the favor by ending Westlake’s historic 54-game winning streak in a game played at Rice Stadium.
While North Shore has spent most of the year at #1 or #2 in our rankings and comes into this game as a 13-point Elo favorite, Westlake definitely has a shot to get one back against the Mustangs in this the first meeting between these two played outside of the Houston area. Westlake’s defense and special teams, in particular are truly elite and could keep this game in reach long enough for their offense to potentially have a shot to do just enough to pull of the upset. North Shore has shown flashes of their true potential at times on offense and when they get everything rolling, they are practically unstoppable. If Kaleb Bailey is on, specifically, the Mustangs will be able to do enough to support their defense who should have a pretty strong advantage against this year’s Westlake offense.
The underlying numbers all point in the same direction as Elo, with North Shore holding about a 10-14 point advantage in each of the trending datasets we like to track. With that being said, we see this being a 21-7 or 21-14 type of game, as both defenses should match up well with their opposing offenses. This one will likely come down to a key turnover or special teams play to ultimately decide it.
State Semifinal Round Previews - Division 2
Click Here for the Updated TNG Brackets
DeSoto +14, 81% to win vs Southlake Carroll
Sat 12/9, 2pm, Allen Eagle Stadium
Meaning absolutely no disrespect to either Summer Creek or Cibolo Steele, this game right here is a State Title worthy matchup of two juggernauts who are playing their best football of the season at the same time. On top of that, these two have more recent playoff history than we realized, with Carroll winning the last three in 2017, ‘18, and ‘19 after DeSoto had taken the 2012 and 2016 W’s. Both DeSoto and Carroll absolutely destroyed their district rematch opponents in their respective regional finals last week, outscoring them by a combined 92 points.
Elo very clearly favors DeSoto in this one due to the strength of their victory over Duncanville and, of course, due to the fact that they haven’t been beaten in 20 games running. The 14-point projected margin that the model is throwing out is, in some ways, a nod of respect for Carroll, as that matches the closest anyone has managed to play DeSoto this season. The underlying numbers for Carroll are undeniably strong, and as we pointed out before the Byron Nelson game, they could be telling. In fact, if we isolate Carroll’s ImpliedElo over their last five games, they are playing an incredible 10 points above their season-long Elo which is what feeds the projection model. In other words, should this be considered more like a 4-point game? (Note: DeSoto is playing right at their season-long Elo in their last 5) In addition, Carroll actually matches DeSoto’s adjusted scoring metrics over each team’s last five games, achieving a +52 net adjusted scoring margin.
Yeah, that’s a lot of nerdery and conjecture, but it’s kinda what we do here.
On the field, Carroll will be tremendously challenged to handle DeSoto’s absolutely beastly offensive and defensive lines. For any of the previous perhaps pointless lines of text to matter, Carroll is going to have to make a stand in the trenches or risk suffering the same fate as every other potential challenger has met against this DeSoto squad.
Summer Creek +5, 64% to win vs Cibolo Steele
Sat 12/9, 5pm, McLane Stadium
This game may lack some of the history of the last two matchups discussed, but it could very well be the best game of them all. Summer Creek has been a program on the rise for awhile now and they finally got their breakthrough on the statewide level by defeating Hightower last week in a absolute classic to reach their first state semifinal. The Bulldogs will now face a Cibolo Steele program making their first appearance back in a state semifinal since 2016 when they defeated Katy Cinco Ranch on their way to a narrow state final loss to…DeSoto.
These two teams match up really well with each other in so many areas. Summer Creek fans may be surprised by the level of speed that Steele will bring to the table, who will look quite similar to Hightower in many positions, in fact. Steele is likely going to have their hands full with Summer Creek’s defensive line and linebackers, however. Of all of the matchups present in this game, the Summer Creek defensive front seven against the Steele line should be the most concerning for Knights fans. If Steele is able to hold their own there, they’ll have a shot with the weapons QB Chad Warner has at his disposal. Offensively for Summer Creek, Lloyd Avant rightfully dominates the headlines and likely the scouting reports, but Blake Thomas is an electric athlete at QB, who is a very capable thrower when needed. Thomas wasn’t even supposed to be the team’s QB at the start of the year, but he’s stepped in due to injury and has rounded into a difference-maker.
The underlying numbers in this matchup actually diverge fairly dramatically from the close game Elo is calling for. Summer Creek appears to have a 2 TD+ advantage in our adjusted scoring metrics, and in looking at each team’s last five games in terms of ImpliedElo. It would be incredibly unwise to count out such a storied program as Cibolo Steele in this setting, however. This should be a great game.
Updated Bracket Odds
Here’s an updated look at the remaining survivors’ odds to advance for each bracket, sorted by their odds to win it all. Remember, your team’s odds will change as you’re able to advance. They can change drastically if you defy the model and pull off an upset.
Playoffs are just now getting interesting. Back when I played one team got in and the Bi-district games were killers. I would go to Dallas and watch quite a few of them. Now, 4 teams from each district get in and you have a 3-7 team facing a 10-0 team and the results are as expected. You have 70-0 games and there were even some going into the 80s.
They’re trying to do the same to college football and we don’t need 12 teams.