Week 1 was great for some teams and forgettable for others, but the great thing is that the new week provides a new opportunity for teams to prove themselves. Below, we’ll take a look at the key games to keep an eye on around the state.
Week 1 Review
In case you missed our Week 1 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
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With that, let’s look ahead to Week 2…
Historical Model Performance for Week 2
In the chart above you can see that, for Week 2, the average model performance is 69.3% with a high of 77.8% in 2019. At this stage in the game, the model is still feeling teams out and collecting data which leads to a natural peak in terms of accuracy at the end of the regular season.
Top Games of the Week
Man, do we have some great games on tap this week! All of the games in the table below rank in the top 4% of all regular season games on the schedule in terms of our GameScore. We’ll take about the top four games in more detail just below the table.
Featured Games of the Week
#10 Humble Atascocita vs #11 Katy (Cita 51% to win, <1 pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Turner Stadium
Both Katy and Atascocita opened the season with wins against the top contenders in the 24-6A race, with Katy defeating Clear Springs and Atascocita taking care of Dickinson. An entirely different challenge awaits both teams as Atascocita looks forward to hosting Katy in Humble with, on paper, their best chance yet to get a win over the Tigers. The incredibly talented offense of Atascocita appears to be a mismatch for Katy’s fledgling defense still rounding into form. However, in 5 prior meetings, Katy has averaged 42ppg against the Eagles, never having scored less than 31 points. Against this Atascocita offense, Katy might need all of that and then some, but that could be difficult with Atascocita’s newer, nastier brand of defense. This feels like a game that could range from a close Katy win to a potentially emphatic Atascocita breakthrough.
#7 Cibolo Steele vs #13 Lake Travis (Steele 58% to win, 3pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Cavalier Stadium
These two only play absolute classics and we can’t wait to see the next edition. In four meetings since 2016, the average score between these two is Lake Travis 36.3 to 35.8 for Steele, with no game being decided by more than a touchdown. Steele’s opening demolition of Brennan sent shockwaves, while Lake Travis displayed immense toughness in defeating Martin 13-6. With revenge on their minds from last year’s playoff loss to the Cavs and with a resounding victory under their belt, expect Steele to come in extremely confident. On the other hand, Lake Travis will be thrilled to have gotten this season started on the right foot and will be bolstered by having this game on their home turf. Whoever wins this game will leave with two high-quality wins to their name and will have tremendous momentum headed into the rest of their schedule. Find a way to get to this game or watch it on Texan Live; they simply don’t get much better than this, especially not in the regular season.
#9 Spring Westfield vs #19 Fort Bend Hightower (Westfield 76% to win, 11pt fav)
Sat, 6pm, at Hall Stadium
Although this game wasn’t particularly close last year, it is still one of the best games on the schedule all season, ranking in the 99th percentile according to our GameScore metric. The matchup to watch here is undoubtedly the Westfield defense against the Hightower offense. Each unit projects as one of the best in the state, but it is worth noting that, in their opener, Hightower faced a tough defense in Pearland Dawson and only managed 20 points. Westfield’s defense will surely present an even stronger challenge, but Hightower’s offensive weapons can score on any given play. If Hightower is going to be a true contender this year, you’d like to see them mount a serious challenge here. The same could be said for Westfield in a way; this one will test them much moreso than their opener, so we won’t get a true sense of what this Westfield squad has until we see how this one goes.
#7 Lewisville vs #26 Highland Park (Lewisville 82% to win, 15pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Highlander Stadium
Each of these teams came into the opening weekend with question marks in what has been their bread and butter - the Lewisville defense and the Highland Park offense. Lewisville pitched a shutout over Naaman and Highland Park dropped 56 on FM Marcus…alrighty then. Last year’s meeting was won by the Scots 31-17, in Lewisville, but the Farmers will head to Highlander Stadium possessing the far more experienced side. The latest in the long line of outstanding Scots QBs, Warren Peck, had a great debut and could present a massive test for Lewisville’s D. A win here for Lewisville would absolutely validate the model’s early Top 10 nod.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us five games that are virtual toss-ups in the computer, including the top three on the list in terms of GameScore.
Quick Hits: Other Games to Watch Around the State
Klein Oak vs Cinco Ranch - Klein Oak 51% to win, <1pt fav - the Panthers had a great opening win over DeKaney which certainly caught us off-guard, while Cinco Ranch displayed a wildly effective offensive attack in game 1 after graduating one of the most productive trios in 19-6A history. This has the makings of a great one and Coach Kovo is on the call for Texan Live on Thursday night…don’t miss it!
Euless Trinity vs Rockwall-Heath - Heath 59% to win, 3pt fav - both of these teams really need to notch a win after again opening their season with losses against 5-6A’s Prosper and Guyer. You can bet Trinity wants to avenge last years 68-38 loss.
Willis vs Temple - Willis 65% to win, 6pt fav - both scored at will last week, with Willis’ Lagway accounting for 8 TDs in a half. Lagway was injured in this one last year, so expect the ‘Kats to come out with a vengeance.
Cy Ranch vs Katy Paetow - Cy Ranch 64% to win, 5pt fav - who is gonna bounce back quickest from an opening week disappointment? Ranch is a playoff regular and Paetow is trying to find their way in…who will get their season on track first?
The Woodlands vs Houston Lamar - The Woodlands 83% to win, 15pt fav - The Woodlands will want to ‘get right’ after last week, but Lamar isn’t exactly the team you want to see in that scenario; the Texans are seriously talented and could give the Highlanders a game.
Shadow Creek vs Clear Springs - Shadow Creek 63% to win, 5pt favs - a recruiter’s dream with talent in every position group on both sidelines. This one should be just flat-out fun.
Austin Bowie vs Cedar Ridge - Bowie 58% to win, 3pt fav - another ‘bounce-back’ game on this week’s schedule. Bowie was much closer to a win last week, but Cedar Ridge always seems to field playoff-caliber teams. This one should be good.
Klein Collins vs Pearland Dawson - KC 84% to win, 16pt fav - we expected Dawson’s D to be good, but didn’t realize it would be as good as it looked last week. How will they fare against Collins’ many weapons?
Katy Tompkins vs Bridgeland - Tompkins 83% to win, 15pt fav - both opened with impressive wins setting up a chance for each to further define their potential based on how this one plays out.
Ridge Point vs Dickinson - RP 72% to win, 9pt fav - Both teams took losses against Top 10 opposition in Week 1 and get a chance right away to grab a win against a high-quality opponent. We say it often, but it bears repeating…we love teams with the ambition and foresight to put these kinds of games on their schedule.
Reminder: TNG Pick ‘Em
If you missed our initial Week 2 Pick ‘Em email, or if you haven’t yet gotten off the sidelines to join us in the battle, go to our Week 2 Pick ‘Em page and jump in! Test your wits against us and against our model to see how you stack up.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.