Week 2 was everything we thought it would be, with some teams confirming their Week 1 performances, and with others bouncing back with huge victories. This week, believe it or not, 9 districts begin district play and there are some pivotal games, potentially deciding district titles. We’ll get you ready for all of the action ahead in this post.
Week 2 Review
In case you missed our Week 2 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
Also, don’t forget to checkout the podcast. In addition to finding the podcast episodes by being a subscriber to this site, you can find our Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and we’ll also be uploading each episode (audio only for now) on YouTube. Please subscribe, comment, and ‘like’ the Pod to help elevate it in the search engines of each platform.
With that, let’s look ahead to Week 3…
Historical Model Performance for Week 3
In the chart above you can see that, for Week 3, the average model performance is 72.6% with a high of 78.7% in 2019. After this week, we’ll start to have a really good picture of what the statewide landscape looks like and we’ll already be able to start taking a peek at how each district’s playoff races might play out.
Top Games of the Week
The model really struggled with last week’s Top 10 games, going just 2-8 (ouch), and there are a number of tight ones on this week’s slate that could go either way. All of the games in the table below rank in the top 5% of all regular season games on the schedule in terms of our GameScore. We’ll take about the top three games in more detail just below the table.
Featured Games of the Week
#9 Katy vs #35 Katy Tompkins (Katy 81% to win, 14 pt fav)
Fri, 6:30pm, at Rhodes Stadium
Could the 19-6A title be decided in just Week 3? Jordan and others will certainly factor into the race, but this is clearly the marquee matchup in 19-6A with Tompkins being the only team to unseat Katy as district champions since 2008. Nobody in the district has defended Katy better than Tompkins, who held last year’s record-setting Katy rushing attack in check in a narrow 14-13 defeat. In fact, 3 of the last 4 matchups between these two have been decided by less than a touchdown. Both teams come into this one a little banged up after each challenged themselves in their non-district schedules, and both come into this one on the heels of a loss. Expect this one to be a battle that comes down to a play or two deciding the outcome. Rhodes will be packed and it will be rocking.
#2 North Shore vs #13 Spring Westfield (North Shore 90% to win, 21pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Planet Ford Stadium
Before Westfield’s surprising defeat at the hands of Hightower, this was unquestionably the best game on the Week 3 schedule…and it still may be. The Battle of the Mustangs has been an absolute showcase for Houston area football since the two started squaring off in the early-2000’s. Westfield is one of the few teams who can claim recent victories over North Shore, having beaten them in 2021 and 2017 and also one of the few who can come close to matching them physically. The Westfield defense is capable of causing some issues for North Shore with the experience and elite talent they have on that side of the ball, but Hightower’s domination of the Westfield offense has us wondering how the North-side ‘Stangs will be able to generate enough points to win. North Shore is capable of living up to the model’s expectations here, but don’t be surprised if you see a strong response from Westfield. This will be the 9th meeting between these two in the last 10 years, with each having won four times.
#12 Humble Summer Creek vs #16 Klein Collins (Summer Creek 61% to win, 4pt fav)
Fri, 7pm, at Klein Memorial Stadium
Summer Creek and Klein Collins played a classic last year in their first-ever meeting, with Collins coming out on top with the 20-17 victory. Both have started strong, claiming two victories each against good opposition, setting up what should be another classic battle. These are two teams that love to play physical football and they’re both really solid in their defensive front sevens. They’ll need to be solid on D, because both feature explosive skill talent, with Summer Creek featuring the backfield of Blake Thomas and Lloyd Avant and Collins featuring QB Tucker Parks and RB Michael Wilson. These teams are, in many ways, mirror-images of each other and this one will likely come down to who plays the cleaner game. While the two games above may feature more household names, we’re not sure this isn’t the best game of the weekend.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us five games that are virtual toss-ups in the computer, including the top three on the list in terms of GameScore.
Quick Hits: Other Games to Watch Around the State
Cy Falls vs Klein Cain - Cain favored by <1pt, 50% to win - this should be a great one that should provide another great calibration point for two teams expected to compete for their district titles.
Humble vs Spring DeKaney - Humble favored by 1, 51% to win - The Wildcats have continued their ascent with a new Coach taking over, which is great to see, but an ultra-talented DeKaney squad awaits as the next challenge. If the ‘Cats win this one, the 21-6A elite will need to be on notice.
El Paso Pebble Hills vs El Paso Eastwood, Pebble Hills favored by 8, 70% to win - The Spartans begin their defense of their first district title with a tough opener against the Eastwood Troopers. The winner will have the inside track to the district title.
Allen vs Arlington Martin, Allen favored by 4, 61% to win - who saw this being a game between 0-2 teams before the season? Martin and Allen find themselves in unfamiliar territory in a bit of a “must win” for each.
Prosper vs Rockwall, Prosper favored by 7, 68% to win - This one has the makings of a shootout, given how both teams have performed so far. With both capable of deep playoff runs, this should be a great game.
Mansfield vs South Grand Prairie, Mansfield favored by 1, 54% to win - SGP needs a win and Mansfield could establish themselves as a factor in the 11-6A race with a win of their own.
Killeen Harker Heights vs Round Rock Cedar Ridge, Harker Heights favored by 8, 70% to win - Cedar Ridge bounced back last week, but another win here would further cloud the 25-6A picture. Harker Heights needs to rebound after a setback against Smithson Valley.
New Caney vs Willis, New Caney favored by <1, 50% to win - A huge 13-6A opener between last year’s district champ and a Willis team threatening to compete for the title this year. The winner here will be in fantastic shape in a highly competitive district.
The Woodlands vs Oak Ridge, The Woodlands favored by 15, 83% to win - this cross-town battle has rarely been close, but this year’s edition very well could be, despite the model’s suggestion. The Woodlands can’t afford to take the War Eagles lightly.
Shadow Creek vs Bridgeland, Shadow Creek favored by 8, 70% to win - this one got real interesting with the Bridgeland win over Tompkins. The Shark D vs the Bears’ playmakers should be fascinating.
CE King vs Pearland, King favored by 6, 65% to win - Pearland has been scoring at will and they’ll need to continue doing that to keep up with this high-powered King squad. A shootout seems very likely here.
Pflugerville Weiss vs Converse Judson, Weiss favored by 5, 64% to win - Weiss has been smashing expectations each of the first two weeks. This will be an interesting one to follow on the heels of Westlake beating Judson handily last week. Just how good is Weiss? This game could tell us a lot.
Pearland Dawson vs Tomball, Dawson favored by <1, 50% to win - This should be a great, physical game between two very good defensive teams. Dawson might be trending toward a stronger favorite here than the computer suggests.
Reminder: TNG Pick ‘Em
If you missed our initial Week 2 Pick ‘Em email, or if you haven’t yet gotten off the sidelines to join us in the battle, go to our Week 3 Pick ‘Em page and jump in! Test your wits against us and against our model to see how you stack up.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.