District play opened in nine districts across the state last week and many more will join the party this week. Below, we’ll get you ready for the big week ahead. Read on to find links to our Week 3 Review, Model Performance, Games of the Week, Closest Calls, Other Games to Watch Around the State, and down at the very bottom you’ll find our model’s picks of every game this week.
Week 3 Review
In case you missed our Week 3 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
Also, don’t forget to checkout the podcast. In addition to finding the podcast episodes by being a subscriber to this site, you can find our Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and we’ll also be uploading each episode (audio only for now) on YouTube. Please subscribe, comment, and ‘like’ the Pod to help elevate it in the search engines of each platform.
With that, let’s look ahead to Week 4…
Historical Model Performance for Week 4
Week 4 and onward is usually where the model picks up steam. Having three weeks of real data gives it a good base for going forward. On average, we’ll hit on 77% in Week 4 and we should see that percentage increase each week through Week 11, where we should be in the low 80s.
Top Games of the Week
Even with a number of teams on their bye week and with district play getting underway, we still have some great games to look forward to. The table below lists the top games on this week’s schedule in terms of our GameScore metric. We’ll talk about the top three games in more detail just below the table.
Featured Games of the Week
Ridge Point vs Hightower (Hightower 74% to win, 10pt fav)
We’ve been looking forward to this one since the summer when we saw what both teams were returning from last year. Ridge Point won this fixture 25-17 last year in a tight game that was decided by special teams. The fact that the model is leaning 74% toward Hightower is significant considering Hightower holds just one win over Ridge Point, which came back in 2015. The model is getting a strong signal from Hightower’s wins over Dawson, Westfield, and Travis, while it has less to go on from Ridge Point’s sole victory over Bush. A drawback of the Elo system is that there’s no such thing as a quality loss; it’s something we’re looking to add-in sometime in the future, but in its current form Ridge Point doesn’t get any bonus points for playing Westlake and Dickinson to the final whistle.
Model aside, the Hurricanes do appear to hold an advantage with their explosive offense against a Ridge Point defense that still hasn’t quite looked like their typical selves. The battle between the Ridge Point offense and the Hightower defense is about as good as it gets. Ridge Point will have to avoid the slow starts that plagued them in their games against Westlake and Dickinson to carry on their dominance over their district rivals.
Prosper vs Denton Guyer (Guyer 69% to win, 8pt fav)
Another huge district battle taking place this week is Prosper vs Denton Guyer. Both teams came into the year with plenty of question marks, but both are off to very respectable starts. Prosper is putting up a ton of points, featuring a dynamic offense led by QB Nate Tenbarge, but they haven’t yet displayed their typical defensive steel. They’re going to want to find some of that defensive magic quickly as Guyer comes in featuring, to nobody’s surprise, an incredibly efficient QB and a couple of lethal downfield targets. Through three games, Logan McLaughlin has posted a QB rating of 151 (158.3 is perfect) in taking over for Jackson Arnold, most frequently hitting Sophomore Corbin Glasco and Sr. standout Josiah Martin. Even with the rebuilding each team is undergoing, and with Guyer dropping a close one to Aledo and Prosper losing a thriller against Rockwall, this one is clearly still a marquee game in the state. Guyer’s defense has more star power and more upside between the two to get more stops against the opposing offense, so the model leaning toward Guyer makes plenty of sense. Add in the fact that Prosper is 0-5 all-time against Guyer even when they’ve had excellent-to-great defenses and it would seem to be an uphill climb for the Eagles.
Midland Legacy vs Cibolo Steele (Steele 73% to win, 9 pt fav)
The last featured game of the week is a sneaky-good inter-regional clash between two outstanding programs. Steele and Legacy met in Midland last year in a game the finished 35-28 in Steele’s favor. Both teams return a ton experience from a year ago and, with the results each have posted thus far, everything points toward another close contest.
While Legacy has only played 5A Panhandle opposition to-date, as was the case last year, the Rebels have played notably better on defense heading into this year’s game. Steele is clearly improved on both sides of the ball, so it’s going to be interesting to see which matchups fall which way. Legacy’s offense against that Steele defense is the headlining matchup, and if Legacy has trouble moving the ball, it could point to a decisive victory for Steele, because that explosive Knight offense appears to hold a significant edge on the Legacy D, even as improved as it appears to be.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us a bunch of great games that are virtual toss-ups.
Quick Hits: Other Games to Watch Around the State
Converse Judson 2pt fav, 54% to win vs Hutto - Both of these teams had high hopes to start the season, but come in a little shaken by some tough results against really good teams. Both need a win to get some momentum heading into district play.
Crowley 8pt fav, 70% to win vs Weatherford - Our model hasn’t yet caught up to Crowley who just keeps outpacing expectations. Our projections show this one being a potential playoff-berth decider, with the loser here likely needing to cause upsets later on to reach the postseason.
Trinity 2pt fav, 54% to win vs Boswell - Trinity got a much needed win last week, but faces a tough Boswell squad to open district play. With 3-6A being deeper than normal, neither team can afford less than their best effort here.
Waxahachie 5pt fav, 62% to win vs Cedar Hill - This is probably the biggest game that will ever end up in this section, and the model is calling for a close one. Quite simply, this is one of the most important games of the year because it will effectively determine the most likely playoff bracket that DeSoto will compete in. A Cedar Hill win makes DeSoto to D1 quite possible, while a Waxahachie win would nearly cement DeSoto heading back to D2.
Harker Heights 3pt fav, 59% to win vs Odessa Permian - We love a good inter-regional game and this one should be great. Harker Heights has Permian coming to town for Homecoming (!) and don’t look now, but the Panthers have been playing pretty well.
Dickinson 10pt fav, 74% to win vs Klein Oak - We’re not sure the computer has fully digested Klein Oak’s start, but we see this as being much closer than the computer suggests. These are two really good, really physical teams.
Katy Seven Lakes 2pt fav, 55% to win vs Katy Taylor - This game took on much greater significance with Taylor’s upset of Cinco Ranch. Both Seven Lakes and Taylor are now firmly in the 19-6A playoff picture and a win by either team will hugely improve their playoff odds. On a larger scale, a Seven Lakes win would tip Katy towards the D2 playoff bracket while a Taylor win would increase Katy’s D1 odds.
Vista Ridge 3pt fav, 58% to win vs Cedar Ridge - besides the epic battle at halftime between two of the country’s best marching bands (you didn’t expect that here, did ya?…seriously take advantage of the ihsfan network Youtube broadcast and check them out!) this game features the two squads who now sit projected, rather surprisingly, as the #2 and #3 teams in 25-6A behind Vandegrift. A loss won’t knock either out of contention, but whoever wins this one will be in fantastic position to grab a playoff spot.
Manor 6pt fav, 64% to win vs Round Rock McNeil - With Manor dropping one against Copperas Cove, it would appear that McNeil has a great chance at an early upset to get their playoff push underway. As a preseason favorite to make the playoffs, a Manor loss here would send the already complicated 25-6A playoff race into some deeper form of chaos.
Round Rock 7pt fav, 67% to win vs Round Rock Westwood - Previous years would leave us unsurprised that this game featured 0-3 vs 3-0, but we’d have never guessed Westwood would be the 3-0 team in 2023. Westwood is fully capable of winning this one and, talk about a shakeup…this is simply a must-win for Round Rock.
Reminder: TNG Pick ‘Em
If you missed our initial Week 4 Pick ‘Em email, or if you haven’t yet gotten off the sidelines to join us in the battle, go to our Week 4 Pick ‘Em page and jump in! Test your wits against us and against our model to see how you stack up.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.