Week 7 sees the return of many teams who were off last week, including all of the 6-team districts who will kickoff their district play this week. There are so many great games on the schedule in Week 7 and we’ll setup your weekend by previewing the key games around the state in today’s newsletter.
Week 6 Review
In case you missed our Week 6 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
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With that, let’s look ahead to Week 7…
Historical Model Performance for Week 7
Top Games of the Week
We’ve had four weeks in a row now where the model has hit at least 7 out of 10 of our Games of the Week. Which ones will be the upsets this week? Like last week, there are 6 games projected to be within a touchdown, so there’s plenty of potential for some volatility. The table below lists the top games on this week’s schedule in terms of our GameScore metric.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us only three games that fall within a two-point projected margin.
Quick Hits: Games to Watch Around the State
EP Eastwood 9pt fav, 73% to win vs EP Americas - Going into the season, few would’ve foreseen this game as a potential district title decider but both Eastwood and Americas have played themselves into strong positions. Can Americas keep riding their string of upsets?
EP Eastlake 3pt fav, 59% to win vs EP Montwood - Eastlake and Montwood tangle for what could be a deciding game in determining the final playoff spots and the model can hardly pick between them.
Midland Legacy 5pt fav, 62% to win vs Wolfforth Frenship - District play opens in style in 2-6A, with a matchup between the two favorites for the district title. This will be Frenship’s first game of the season against a 6A team, incredibly. Frenship won last year’s meeting 49-34. Expect another shootout.
Southlake Carroll 21pt fav, 90% to win vs Keller - A battle of unbeatens and one of only two remaining games where Carroll is likely to be favored by 3 TDs or less. Last year’s game was a great one; can this year’s version possibly live up to that?
Rockwall-Heath 8 pt fav, 70% to win vs Tyler Legacy - Legacy is going to need to cause an upset or two to get into the playoffs and this game against Heath gives them a pretty good shot.
Duncanville 32pt fav, 97% to win vs Waxahachie - This may not look like a great game, but that’s only because Duncanville is so utterly incredible. This may well be a preview of the Region 2, Division 1 Final so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Cedar Hill 2pt fav, 54% to win vs Mansfield - this one is very clearly a play-in game for final playoff spot in the District of Doom. Cedar Hill may be just 1-4 vs Mansfield’s 5-0, but Cedar Hill has played the state’s most difficult schedule to-date and they do hold an impressive 33-2 win over Arlington Martin.
Harker Heights 12 pt fav, 78% to win vs Hutto - 12-6A has been chaotic to date and Hutto would like to cause more yet, as they really need to claim an upset to get their playoff run back on track. With Will Hammond and that offense, they will always be a threat.
Temple 1 pt fav, 54% to win vs Waco Midway - Temple desperately needs a win here to get into playoff contention, while Midway needs to carry their momentum forward to continue on pace to be in the playoffs themselves.
New Caney 1 pt fav, 52% to win vs Conroe - Both teams are sliding down the table but can hang on to a shot at the postseason with a win here. The loser is very likely out of the mix with College Park looking like a real threat to jump into contention.
Klein Collins 6pt fav, 64% to win vs Tomball Memorial - Yet another game that few likely saw as a potential title clash. Memorial’s underlying performance metrics actually point to them being a 6-10 point favorite as opposed to the Elo model which likes Collins. A win here for Memorial would send them flying up the rankings.
Bridgeland 3pt fav, 58% to win vs Cy Falls - While these two are currently projected to finish 3rd and 4th in district, neither is out of district title contention as both still have yet to play Cy Springs and Cy Ranch. This should be an outstanding game.
Katy Taylor 2pt fav, 56% to win vs Katy Morton Ranch - This is probably the most important game you hadn’t given much thought to…if Taylor wins, it leaves the door open for a couple of potential tiebreaker situations that could leave Katy’s D1/D2 status in limbo until the final weeks. If Morton Ranch wins, suddenly the four playoff spots start to look quite settled, with Katy (D2), Cinco Ranch, Tompkins, and Jordan (D2) very likely to be the 19-6A reps.
Katy Jordan 1pt fav, 52% to win vs Katy Cinco Ranch - a win here for either team could virtually clinch a playoff spot. Cinco Ranch, as of now, needs this game more than Jordan does, because Cinco lost previously to Taylor and needs to distance themselves from the potential tiebreakers mentioned in the preview just above.
North Shore 18pt fav, 87% to win vs Summer Creek - Quite simply one of the games of the year. Summer Creek has been close vs North Shore and could’ve/should’ve won last year’s meeting. This will be the best defense North Shore sees until game 15 or 16. If North Shore rolls through this Bulldog squad, then it sure leaves little to no hope for anyone else not named Duncanville or Westlake.
Channelview 1pt fav, 53% to win vs South Houston - A critical game in the 22-6A race that will likely decide the fourth playoff rep. Underlying numbers point to SoHo possibly having the advantage with their offense.
Pasadena Dobie 8pt fav, 71% to win vs Pasadena Memorial - This is quite likely Dobie’s toughest remaining game en route to the district title. If the Longhorns win this one, they’d be heavily favored to win out.
Dickinson 10pt fav, 75% to win vs Clear Falls - With both Dickinson and Clear Falls dispatching Clear Springs, this is your de facto district title game, unless a Clear Creek causes an upset down the road…couldn’t happen, right? Dickinson has been playing great and might actually deserve to be a bigger favorite than Elo is suggesting.
Vista Ridge 8pt fav, 69% to win vs Round Rock Westwood - Vista Ridge needs a W here to keep a playoff berth in reach in the ever-shifting landscape of 25-6A, while Westwood could start to look like a playoff lock with a win here. The Westwood offense against the Vista Ridge defense is a great matchup…can VR put up enough points of their own?
Round Rock 5pt fav, 62% to win vs Manor - If Round Rock could get to 3 district wins with a win here, it would elevate them above the madness developing in spots 3 through 6. A Manor win could go a long way to either giving them a leg up in potential tiebreakers or help to avoid them altogether.
SA Brandeis < 1pt fav, 51% to win vs SA Churchill - 28-6A just keeps delivering the goods every week and we have yet another toss-up between teams in playoff contention. Brandeis and Churchill are currently projected to finish 3rd and 4th. The winner of this one will be in great shape.
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.