As the playoff picture begins to take shape, there are still plenty of key contests around the state, with some teams already fighting for their playoff lives, some looking to lock up top seeds, and others looking to play spoiler. We’ll setup your weekend by previewing the key games around the state in today’s newsletter.
Week 7 Review
In case you missed our Week 7 Review, check it out here to get caught up and ready for the week ahead.
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With that, let’s look ahead to Week 8…
Historical Model Performance for Week 8
Top Games of the Week
The model has correctly picked 38 of the last 50 Games of the Week. Which ones will be the upsets this week? Nine out of the ten best games this week are projected to be within single-digit margins. The table below lists the top games on this week’s schedule in terms of our GameScore metric.
Closest Calls
It’s always fun to take a look at the tightest games in our model projections and this week gives us a whopping 8 games that fall within a two-point projected margin.
Quick Hits: Games to Watch Around the State
Byron Nelson 9pt fav, 72% to win vs Keller - this will be Byron Nelson’s first game against a sure-fire playoff team, and it will be interesting to compare how they do against Keller relative to how Carroll did with the Bobcat-Dragon game on the horizon.
Northwest Eaton 4pt fav, 59% to win vs Timber Creek - will most likely determine the final 4-6A playoff spot and either way it won’t affect Carroll’s D1/D2 status. Eaton was our preseason pick here and the model still agrees, barely, after 7 weeks.
McKinney 1pt fav, 53% to win vs Allen - Great benchmark game for both squads; both will be in playoffs, but in separate divisions. Both teams have outperformed their Elo rating for 4 straight weeks. Allen has quietly made a nice rebound after their tough opening to the season.
Garland Sachse 11pt fav, 75% to win vs Garland and Wylie East <1 pt fav, 50% to win vs Wylie - Each of the top four square off in 9-6A to help settle playoff seeding and district supremacy. These four appear to be locks for the playoffs.
Hutto 4pt fav, 59% to win vs Temple - must-win for both teams; Hutto has a clearer path to the postseason, but any path includes a win here. Temple needs to win out and they’ll need help on top of that.
Klein Cain 7pt fav, 68% to win vs Klein Oak - 4th vs 5th in a game of contrasting strengths. Cain hasn’t been themselves on D and Klein Oak has been lacking on O, while Cain O vs KO D are the clear strengths of both. Oak can win this one, and they need to, in order to get in good position for playoffs.
Tomball Memorial <1 pt fav, 51% to win vs Tomball - local rivalry, great new stadium, model toss-up, and contrasting styles…what’s not to love? This should be a great football game.
Bridgeland 4pt fav, 60% to win vs Cy Ranch - Another great one in 16-6A with Bridgeland having knocked off Cy Falls last week and Cy Ranch looking to bounce back after losing to Springs a couple weeks ago
Cy Falls 7pt fav, 67% to win vs Cy Woods - 4th vs 5th! Falls went from competing for a shot at the title to a game they need to win to stay in the playoff race. Such is life in the great parity of 16-6A.
Pearland 9pt fav, 72% to win vs Dawson - Another great cross-town rivalry contest. The matchups setup in a similar way that the Pearland vs Shadow Creek game setup, where it’s strength on strength with Pearland’s offense against the Dawson defense. In that Shadow Creek game, Pearland showed that its own D was up to the task. Can they do it again to basically lock up the district title?
Austin Westlake 21pt fav, 90% to win vs Dripping Springs - Like the previously mentioned Allen vs McKinney game, this one is a great test for two excellent football teams as they look toward long playoff runs in separate divisions.
Buda Johnson 1pt fav, 53% to win vs Austin Bowie - this one will decide the final playoff spot in 26-6A. These teams have been putting up similar adjusted defensive scoring numbers, but Johnson’s offense has been the better of the two by about a touchdown considering both teams’ adjusted offensive scoring.
SA Reagan 1 pt fav, 53% to win vs SA Johnson - It’s no surprise to see the Rattlers and the Jaguars squaring off for the district title. Both teams feature prolific offenses, but it’s worth noting that this may be the best defense Johnson has brought to the table in this game in a long while. Every metric we typically look at points to this one being a coin-flip. We can’t wait for this one!
Full Weekly Scoreboard
Finally, here are the picks for all of the games this week! Which ones has the model missed on? Which look most exciting to you? Check the last two columns on the right to see how each game stacks up compared to the rest of the games on the regular season schedule, according to our GameScore.