TNG Bracketology: 2022 Playoff Bracket Odds
Now that the field is set, let's dive into the data and project the outcome of each bracket
Back in the summer, we used our preseason ratings to generate playoff brackets and projected results all the way through the State Championship for Division 1 and Division 2 (you can look back at those by clicking here).
Well, now that we have official brackets, we can use the same methodology to preview what each round of the playoffs could look like based on each team’s Elo rating that they’ve established through the regular season.
The percentages you’ll see in the images below represent the chance each team has to advance from that round to the next. Those odds represent the cumulative successive odds of each team advancing based on their chances of appearing in that round and then defeating the team shown opposing them in a given round. Think of these projections as simply the “most likely” representatives at each stage based on their path and their rating.
We’ll start by taking a look at the Division 1 bracket. Below each Division's bracket graphic, we’ll break down each region in more detail.
Division 1 Projection (double-click to expand/download):
Division 1, Region 1 (1736 avg team Elo, #3 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Lewisville vs Allen (7 pt fav, 67% to win)
Best Rd 2 Game: Allen vs Martin (65.9% odds to occur, Martin 54% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: North Crowley vs Prosper (56.6% odds to occur, Prosper 81% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Prosper 73.3%, North Crowley 16.5%, Lake Highlands 4.2%
vs
Arlington Martin 50.3%, Allen 27.1%, Keller 8.7%
Odds to Win Region:
Prosper 45.9%, Arlington Martin 27.4%, Allen 13.9%, North Crowley 5.1%
Division 1, Region 2 (1851 avg team Elo, #1 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Temple (1 pt fav, 53% to win) vs Waxahachie
Best Rd 2 Game: Spring Westfield vs Klein Collins (76.6% odds to occur, Westfield 59% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Rockwall vs Spring Westfield (37.2% odds to occur, Westfield 57% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Duncanville 87.4%, The Woodlands 9.9%, Klein Cain 1.7%
vs
Spring Westfield 36.8%, Rockwall 30.9%, Klein Collins 20.4%
Odds to Win Region:
Duncanville 79.1%, Spring Westfield 6.3%, The Woodlands 5.6%, Rockwall 4.3%
Division 1, Region 3 (1790 avg team Elo, #2 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Katy Tompkins (1 pt fav, 53% to win) vs Fort Bend Ridge Point
Best Rd 2 Game: Cy-Fair vs Cinco Ranch (88.9% odds to occur, Cinco 85% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Tompkins vs Atascocita (27.5% odds to occur, Atascocita 78% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
North Shore 85.3%, Cy-Fair 13.4%
vs
Atascocita 64.0%, Tompkins 10.6%, Ridge Point 8.4%
Odds to Win Region:
North Shore 74.2%, Atascocita 15.4%, Cy-Fair 7.3%, Ridge Point 1.0%
Division 1, Region 4 (1600 avg team Elo, #7 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Round Rock (6 pt fav, 65% to win) vs Lake Travis
Best Rd 2 Game: Round Rock vs Cibolo Steele (59.0% odds to occur, Round Rock 50.1% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Round Rock vs SA Brennan (34.9% odds to occur, Brennan 57.9% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
San Antonio Brennan 59.3%, Cibolo Steele 20.9%, Round Rock 15.5%
vs
Austin Westlake 96.0%, SA Reagan 1.7%, San Benito 1.3%
Odds to Win Region:
Austin Westlake 88.5%, San Antonio Brennan 7.1%, Cibolo Steele 2.0%, Round Rock 1.5%
Division 2 Projection (double-click to expand/download):
Division 2, Region 1 (1734 avg team Elo, #5 most-difficult bracket):
Model picks for first round, and most likely to advance to semis; Guyer vs Carroll Final with Guyer most likely to reach Semi
Best Game of Round 1: Coppell (6 pt fav, 65% to win) vs McKinney
Best Rd 2 Game: Denton Guyer vs Highland Park (92.2% odds to occur, Guyer 86% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Denton Guyer vs Byron Nelson (63% odds to occur, Guyer 89% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Denton Guyer 76.8%, Byron Nelson 12.2%, Highland Park 9.7%
vs
Southlake Carroll 87.5%, Coppell 6.4%, Dallas Jesuit 2.5%
Odds to Win Region:
Denton Guyer 55.2%, Southlake Carroll 37.0%, Byron Nelson 3.4%, Highland Park 3.2%
Division 2, Region 2 (1694 avg team Elo, #6 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Rockwall-Heath (1 pt fav, 53% to win) vs Wylie East
Best Rd 2 Game: Harker Heights vs Royse City (60.9% odds to occur, Harker Heights 89% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: DeSoto vs New Caney (74.6% odds to occur, DeSoto 73% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
DeSoto 68.2%, New Caney 28.2%, Rockwall-Heath 0.9%
vs
Harker Heights 58.6%, Conroe Oak Ridge 27.2%, Mansfield 3.8%
Odds to Win Region:
DeSoto 55.3%, Harker Heights 19.6%, New Caney 17.7%, Conroe Oak Ridge 5.5%
Division 2, Region 3 (1736 avg team Elo, #3 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Clear Falls (8 pt fav, 70% to win) vs Pearland Dawson
Best Rd 2 Game: Shadow Creek vs Summer Creek (92.1% odds to occur, Shadow Creek 58% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Katy vs Shadow Creek (53.1% odds to occur, Katy 83% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Katy 79.3%, Shadow Creek 12.0%, Summer Creek 7.2%
vs
Sheldon CE King 28.6%, Stratford 26.6%, Clear Falls 20.1%, Hightower 17.0%
Odds to Win Region:
Katy 74.4%, Shadow Creek 9.1%, Summer Creek 5.0%, CE King 3.7%
Division 2, Region 4 (1477 avg team Elo, #8 most-difficult bracket):
Best Game of Round 1: Austin Vandegrift (20 pt fav, 89% to win) vs Austin Bowie
Best Rd 2 Game: Eagle Pass vs Harlingen (65.6% odds to occur, Harlingen 75.1% to win)
Best Rd 3 Game: Dripping Springs vs Harlingen (62.4% odds to occur, Dripping Springs 87.0% to win)
Odds to Reach Regional Final:
Austin Vandegrift 83.9%, Austin Bowie 6.6%, SA Harlan 6.0%
vs
Dripping Springs 73.9%, Harlingen 16.0%, Manor 4.1%
Odds to Win Region:
Austin Vandegrift 54.6%, Dripping Springs 38.3%, Harlingen 3.1%, Austin Bowie 1.6%