TNG 2022 6A Division 1 and Division 2 Playoff Bracket Projections

A look at how the playoff brackets could play out based on our preseason ratings

We’ve looked at our Preseason Top 50, our regional projections, our Top 5 District Races to Watch, and we’ve previewed our most anticipated regular season games of the year. Now let’s take a look, considering all of that, at how the Division 1 and Division 2 playoff brackets could play out based on our preseason model.

In each of the brackets below, the percentages listed next to each team in each round represents their odds of advancing, considering their rating, their opposition, and their odds of reaching each round. The first round is straightforward and the percentages listed are each team’s chance of winning that matchup (how can you trust those percentages?). From the second round on, the percentages to advance represent the cumulative odds based on each team advancing from their previous matchups and includes their odds of advancing from the matchup listed for that round. As the brackets progress, what you see are the “most likely” matchups given all of the various possibilities. For the state games, we had to calculate 1,024 different potential matchups for each one (32 different potential semifinalists, each having 32 potential opponents); the matchup listed is simply the most likely of those 1,024 possibilities.

With the groundwork laid, let’s look at how the 2022 6A Division 1 playoff picture could look (click bracket image to expand; once it opens in a new window, you can pinch to zoom in further or use ctrl + mouse wheel)

Austin Westlake, as our preseason #1 and 3-time defending State Champions, are no surprise to be our projected favorite to win yet another state title. The Chaps’ road to the final is not without its dangers however, as a 4th round game against either Lake Travis or SA Brennan could test them ahead of a likely semifinal clash against North Shore, which would be worthy of primetime national TV. Should Westlake best the Mustangs again, their most likely title dance partner would be Duncanville, as the Panthers are the overwhelming favorites on the Region 1 & 2 side of the bracket. Our model has Duncanville at a 61% chance to reach the title game, which is the second best odds of any team in either bracket, topped only by Westlake who our model gives just over a 62% chance to reach the final.

Although Westlake and Duncanville are such strong favorites, the Division 1 playoff picture is full of interesting possibilities.

The most intriguing and impactful first round matchups look to be Euless Trinity vs Northwest Eaton in Region 1, Lewisville vs Prosper in Region 1, Ridge Point vs Cinco Ranch in Region 3, Dickinson vs Pearland in Region 3, and, possibly the best of the bunch, Round Rock vs Lake Travis in Region 4. Each of these games project to be close with the winner capable of continuing their run for several more rounds.

Prosper vs Arlington Martin in the second round could likely determine Allen’s opponent in the Region 1 final. Over in Region 3, Atascocita and Dickinson look likely to meet yet again in the second round, with the winner having an inside track to the regional final against North Shore.

Moving into the third round and beyond, nearly all of the matchups look exciting, but we’ll highlight a few of note.

Another Allen vs Trinity playoff game is never a bad thing and it looks like we could be treated to a new edition ahead of a possible Eagle vs Eagle district rematch between Allen and Prosper for a spot in the semifinals for what would be the third year in a row. Region 2’s projected final four of Duncanville vs The Woodlands and Temple vs Westfield could produce some epic battles. Region 3 belongs to North Shore until anyone proves otherwise. Atascocita looks the most capable of the challengers, but could they finally break through against the ‘Stangs?

In Region 4, our model gives Westlake an astounding 88.2% chance of winning the region. It appears it would take something truly extraordinary to prevent the Chaps from reaching the semis. Perhaps the biggest question mark for the Chaps in the regional final is who they’d face. Our model gives San Antonio Brennan the highest likelihood of facing Westlake even though they’d be underdogs if they actually faced Lake Travis in the round prior. That’s because Brennan has the easier path the third round, compared to that of Lake Travis, so the Bears’ odds come out slightly higher, taking everything into account. Again, if a Lake Travis vs Brennan game materializes in reality, it’s hard to imagine the Cavs being anything other than a strong favorite.

Next, we’ll take a look at how the 2022 6A Division 2 playoff bracket could play out (click bracket image to expand; once it opens in a new window, you can pinch to zoom in further or use ctrl + mouse wheel)…

As we mentioned in our Top 5 District Races to Watch, the implications of DeSoto potentially heading to the Division 2 bracket are absolutely enormous. In fact, if they do make it into Division 2, our model favors DeSoto to win it all. Our model gives DeSoto an 81.6% chance of reaching the Division 2 semifinals where they’d face either Denton Guyer or Southlake Carroll for a chance to possibly play Katy in the State Championship. How good is that? However, while Guyer and Carroll each have greater than 80% chance to reach their potential meeting, Katy faces a possibly familiar and more treacherous path.

As was the case in the Division 1 bracket, Division 2 has plenty of matchups in the earlier rounds that could sway the eventual outcome and derail the prohibitive favorites.

An interesting first round matchup between Cedar Hill and Harker Heights could actually determine DeSoto’s Region 2 final opponent. While Cedar Hill struggled a bit last year, the Longhorns can never be counted out and Harker Heights has a stable of returning talent that could see them into the late rounds of the playoffs. Over in Region 3 we could have a first round game between Paetow and Hightower, which would be a rematch of last year’s 5A Division 1 Region 3 final. Either of those teams look capable of getting hot enough to win the region and one of them may be turning their attention to hoops after Round 1. In Region 4, another matchup of 6A newcomers between Dripping Springs and Manor also could have ripple effects all the way through to the regional final and beyond. Dripping Springs has the talent and the potential playoff road to be playing well into December, if they can get this year’s playoff run off the ground. Don’t expect the Tigers to take the first round lightly after last year’s shocking first round exit against Georgetown.

Guyer vs Highland Park in the second round would be a headline-grabber, but with Guyer’s top class experience, the Wildcats would be heavy favorites. Though there are always surprises, there don’t appear to be any other bracket-busting matchups in Round 2 throughout Division 2. That won’t be the case for the third round, however.

Round 3 in Division 2 is where things get really spicy. Guyer and Byron Nelson could meet in a rematch of last year’s playoff classic which nearly saw Guyer out of the playoffs before a furious rally kept their hopes alive. Speaking of furious rallies and potential rematches, Katy and Summer Creek appear on a collision course for a rematch of their rather unexpected classic in last year’s Region 3 final. Summer Creek had the ball with a chance to win the game after being down 27-7 at halftime in last year’s clash, and the Bulldogs return more key starters than Katy does. Watch this space. In the other Region 3 semifinal, we’re looking at a potential game between CE King and Paetow. In a game that would feature absolutely nasty defensive talent, it may be a struggle for both teams to reach double-digits on the scoreboard.

A team that we haven’t yet mentioned in our Division 2 preview is Austin Vandegrift. The Vipers’ playoff road lays out rather nicely for a run to the Regional Final. It seems quite likely that we could have Vandegrift vs Dripping Springs for a spot in the semifinals. If Katy survives another battle with Summer Creek, they’ll face another difficult test against CE King or Paetow before they can worry about yet another very difficult game against Vandegrift or Dripping Springs. Though the Tigers have the best chance of the teams in a strong Region 3 grouping to reach the final, it’s a far cry from being as straightforward as some of their previous runs have appeared on paper.

The above scenarios are just two of many that could play out over the course of this year, but the potential matchups presented above are plenty to get anyone fired up for the new season. Remember, these projections are all based on our preseason adjustments to each team’s rating. If we’re off by how we’ve assessed the teams at the start and depending on how teams develop over the season, we could be looking at something entirely different come November. If your team isn’t featured above, it doesn’t mean anything other than you might just be flying under the radar. Every year, there are teams that surprise everyone and put together a special season. We’ll be excited as anyone to see who those teams may be.

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